Our current projection is that Republicans will finish with a total of 243 house seats: this would reflect a net gain of 65 from Democrats. The range of plausible outcomes is fairly small: our model thinks there is roughly a 90 percent chance that the G.O.P.’s total will eventually be somewhere between 64 seats and 66.
That’s an amazing result for Republicans ”” and far more remarkable from a historical perspective than the fact that Democrats were able to leg out a couple more wins than expected in the Senate. I’m not trying to be a media critic here, but Republicans have some legitimate gripe with portrayals of the night as having been a split decision.
Still, Democrats will finish with at least 52 of their Senators intact, unless they lose both Washington and Colorado, which is unlikely. That margin would be enough to prevent them from losing control of the Senate even if both Joseph I. Lieberman and Ben Nelson decided to caucus with Republicans.
538 Tries to Summarize What Happened Yesterday
3 comments on “538 Tries to Summarize What Happened Yesterday”
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Washington and Colorado are still in play as of this morning, with Washington unlikely to be decided for a week or so because of the mail-in votes.
And I’ve read that the remaining outstanding votes in CO are from rural areas that are heavily conservative, which favors Buck, though he is slightly behind.
From a different angle, Kendall, did you notice how delightfully ambiguous your title is? Sure, the source you are referring to is a political site called “538.” But for those unfamiliar with it, the topic for the thread sounds like it summarizes 538 various attempts to interpret the meaning of yesterday’s election.
David Handy+