Unarmed U.N. monitors ”” a pathetically inadequate force of 300 in a nation of 23 million ”” have been unable to stop the violence, and a cease-fire that began in early April appears to be crumbling. Following the standard rogue-state script, Assad buys time and parries pressure by promising to restrain his forces, but never does.
Given Assad’s barbarity, and the growing regional instability caused by Syria’s violence, many in and out of Congress have demanded air strikes, militarily protected safe zones for Syrian refugees or, at the very least, arming the Syrian rebels.
But just as many, including President Obama, have been cautious, and for good reason. Just because a situation is awful doesn’t mean there’s a good way to fix it.
Unfortunately and historically, violence in the Middle East has to do with who is “in” and who is “out” in the ruling power structure.
The power structure has been historically anything but democratic in the sense that Europeans or North Americans understand democracy.
It seems to be that Middle Easterners seek a “strong man” to rule them and they are more comfortable with that as long as its their strongman.
Unfortunately, within Middle eastern coutries there are generally several strong or potentially strong factions and each wants its strong man to rule. When they don’t get their way, they start rioting and killing each other.
So, in Syria, if the current strong man falls, who will replace him?
Will the killing stop? Probably not.
Will there be a truly democratic Syria in which the ballot box is used to resolve political differences rather than violence? Probably not.
Will the fall of Syria’s current leadership result in a more peaceful Middle East and a more peaceful world? Probably not.
Will the fall of Syria’s current leadership provide the Syrian people with peaceful, safe and prosperous lives? Probably not.