The Latest From Intrade

In the Democratic nomination contracts, Barack Obama last traded at 82.0 and Hillary Clinton 18.1. In the Repubican nomination contracts, John McCain currently trades at 94.0, and right now seems to be the only Republican nomination contract trading actively on a daily basis. In the Individual Winner contracts, Obama last traded at 54.1, McCain was at 34.0, and Clinton found a bid at 10.7

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, US Presidential Election 2008

6 comments on “The Latest From Intrade

  1. qharbour says:

    I read your post three times, and for the life of me do not understand what the heck you are saying. Do you suppose someone can decipher for me what this poster is trying to say. Do not try to be cute, convert this message into intelligible form.

  2. Philip Snyder says:

    qharbour
    “Intrade” is a stock market simulation where people “bet” or “buy” contracts that say such and such will happen. Thus, it tends to be a pretty good indicator of the “mood” of the public that watches such things. It works kind of like the stock market or gambling.
    Here is an example. You buy (actually purchase and pay money for) a contract (or a number of them) that Obama will be the nominee for the Democratic Party in the 2008 election. You buy that currently at about 82 cents. If Obama is the nominee, you will get $1.00 for each contract you purchased. If Obama is not the nominee, you get nothing.

    One of the things that I like about Intrade is that people are not just responding to questions with what they think the pollster wants to hear or what the public wants to hear, but they are putting their money where their mouth is.

    YBIC,
    Phil Snyder

  3. Wilfred says:

    I always heard of politicians being “bought” & “sold”, but I never realized they were so open about it! So if it works like the stock market, how much would it cost to buy a controlling interest in one?

  4. Jim the Puritan says:

    #3: I’m not sure you’d want to invest once you read the prospectus.

  5. Kendall Harmon says:

    #1 go to http://www.intrade.com

    It is one of the most accurate readers of the political scene.

  6. William P. Sulik says:

    [blockquote] Obama last traded at 54.1[/blockquote]
    The other day, Tired of Hypocrisy [url=http://new.kendallharmon.net/wp-content/uploads/index.php/t19/article/10286/#188031]wrote[/url]:
    [blockquote] …there should be no quarter for the Obama campaign. You’re not doing them a favor if you don’t out every single weakness during the primaries. [/blockquote]
    I think this was a good observation, I am concerned that the media has given Obama a free pass and it could hurt him in the main contest.