The upshot is that no government on earth has figured out just the right way to balance the reopening of their economy with reducing the spread.
The debate about how long to continue the current measures, and when to “reopen” the economy operate on the assumption that there is some sort of happy medium that allows more Americans to get back to work, while minimizing the risk of a faster spread that overwhelms ICU beds and hospitals. U.S. policymakers may soon have to confront the really dire scenario, that there is no happy medium — that changes designed to increase economic activity (and human interaction) will inevitably increase the number of cases in a bad way, and that there is no way to keep the pace of the spread slow really economically destructive quarantine measures.
There is this probably particularly American mentality that if we just study a problem long enough, and are somehow smart enough, we will inevitably discover some option that creates a win-win scenario that avoids both the terrible health consequences (more infections and more deaths) or the terrible economic consequences (a depression that forces all kinds of businesses large and small into bankruptcy). The coronavirus may be presenting the countries of the world with a no-win situation.
U.S. policymakers may soon have to confront the really dire scenario, that there is no happy medium – moves to help the economy will inevitably increase infections, and effective mitigation inevitably hurts the economy badly.
https://t.co/IE0N5Kk0ZF— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) April 14, 2020