The world will be watching in horror if Russia invades Ukraine this week \u2014 but just watching. Ukraine will fight alone, as Russian tanks roll across the flat, frozen terrain; precision bombs destroy key targets near Kyiv and other cities; and the country becomes a killing field unlike anything Europe has seen since 1945.<\/p>\n
Russian President Vladimir Putin will quickly win the initial, tactical phase of this war, if it comes. The vast army that Russia has arrayed along Ukraine\u2019s borders could probably seize the capital of Kyiv in several days and control the country in little more than a week, U.S. officials believe.<\/p>\n
But then Putin\u2019s real battle would begin \u2014 as Russia and its Ukrainian proxies try to stabilize a country whose people largely detest them. If just 10 percent of Ukraine\u2019s 40 million people decided to actively resist occupation, they would mount a powerful insurgency. Small bands of motivated fighters subverted America\u2019s overwhelming military power in Iraq and Afghanistan.<\/p>\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cUkraine might seem a triumphal victory for Putin at first, but it\u2019s unlikely to have a happy ending. When leaders fight unnecessary \u201cwars of choice\u201d without a clear endgame, they often confront catastrophic unintended consequences.\u201d https:\/\/t.co\/uwf5q3HrmV<\/a><\/p>\n — John Sipher (@john_sipher) February 14, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n