{"id":116623,"date":"2022-11-18T14:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-18T19:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/?p=116623"},"modified":"2022-11-18T17:22:24","modified_gmt":"2022-11-18T22:22:24","slug":"538-ranks-teams-chances-of-winning-the-world-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/?p=116623","title":{"rendered":"538 ranks teams chances of winning the World Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-paragraph=\"main\">It\u2019s hard to believe \u2014 mostly because it\u2019s currently November and not June\u00a0<a class=\"espn-footnote-link\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #006bd5; text-decoration: none; position: relative;\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/brazil-is-the-favorite-and-messi-is-the-star-but-the-2022-world-cup-is-up-for-grabs\/#fn-1\" data-footnote-id=\"1\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/football\/2022\/oct\/08\/football-corruption-and-the-remarkable-road-to-qatar-world-cup&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; rel=&quot;noopener&quot;&gt;This piece&lt;\/a&gt; by Barney Ronay in The Guardian provides an excellent primer on the corruption and sports washing that led us to this bizarre, ethically bankrupt point in FIFA history \u2014 and to a World Cup that will conclude just before Christmas.&lt;\/p&gt;\"><sup id=\"ss-1\">1<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0\u2014 but the 2022 World Cup kicks off at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar, on Nov. 20. The host nation will square off against Ecuador in the first World Cup match ever played in the Arab world. And the start of the tournament comes with plenty of questions about who might lift soccer\u2019s most prestigious trophy.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Will it be Brazil,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbssports.com\/soccer\/news\/2022-fifa-world-cup-futures-picks-odds-groups-soccer-expert-unveils-best-bets-usmnt-predictions-for-qatar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the betting favorite<\/a>? Or could France become the first nation to repeat since 1962? Is Spain\u2019s new golden generation \u2014 piloted by teenagers like Barcelona midfielders Gavi and Pedri \u2014 as good as its previous golden generation?\u00a0<a class=\"espn-footnote-link\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #006bd5; text-decoration: none; position: relative;\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/brazil-is-the-favorite-and-messi-is-the-star-but-the-2022-world-cup-is-up-for-grabs\/#fn-2\" data-footnote-id=\"2\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;You know, the obscenely gifted squad responsible for getting Spain over the hump at the 2010 World Cup, led by midfield maestros like Xabi Alonso, Sergio Busquets, Cesc F\u00e0bregas, Andr\u00e9s Iniesta, David Silva and Xavi?&lt;\/p&gt;\"><sup id=\"ss-2\">2<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0Does Lionel Messi have enough left in the tank to lead Argentina to glory and further cement himself as the G.O.A.T.? Is football finally\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RJqimlFcJsM&amp;ab_channel=LightningSeedsVEVO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">coming home<\/a>?<a class=\"espn-footnote-link\" style=\"box-sizing: border-box; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: #006bd5; text-decoration: none; position: relative;\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/brazil-is-the-favorite-and-messi-is-the-star-but-the-2022-world-cup-is-up-for-grabs\/#fn-3\" data-footnote-id=\"3\" data-footnote-content=\"&lt;p&gt;Relatedly: Is \u201cfootball\u2019s coming home\u201d the most arrogant phrase in all of sports?&lt;\/p&gt;\"><sup id=\"ss-3\">3<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0Which squads could shock the world? Is there any shine left on Belgium\u2019s underachieving golden generation?<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Last week,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/whats-the-2022-world-cups-group-of-death-its-tough-to-pick-just-one\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">we used Elo ratings<\/a>\u00a0to measure historical Groups of Death at the World Cup, and also to see where this year\u2019s groups rank \u2014 or if a Group of Death even exists this time around. (TL;DR: We\u2019re not sure\/it\u2019s complicated.) Today, we\u2019re back with our full-fledged\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2022-world-cup-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Cup forecast model<\/a>\u00a0to take a broader look at the field and try to answer who\u2019ll be the last team standing on Dec. 18.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/brazil-is-the-favorite-and-messi-is-the-star-but-the-2022-world-cup-is-up-for-grabs\/\">Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The start of the tournament comes with plenty of questions about who might lift soccer\u2019s most prestigious trophy. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/W5vE3GLiH3\">https:\/\/t.co\/W5vE3GLiH3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FiveThirtyEight\/status\/1593703621975281665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 18, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s hard to believe \u2014 mostly because it\u2019s currently November and not June\u00a01\u00a0\u2014 but the 2022 World Cup kicks off at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor, Qatar, on Nov. 20. The host nation will square off against Ecuador in<span class=\"ellipsis\">&hellip;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/?p=116623\">Read more &#8250;<\/a><\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":794,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[119,561,128],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-globalization","category-qatar","category-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/794"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=116623"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116627,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116623\/revisions\/116627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=116623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=116623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=116623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}