Russia is massing men and arms for a new offensive. As soon as January, but more likely in the spring, it could launch a big attack from Donbas in the east, from the south or even from Belarus, a puppet state in the north. Russian troops will aim to drive back Ukrainian forces and could even stage a second attempt to take Kyiv, the capital.<\/p>\n
Those are not our words, but the assessment of the head of Ukraine\u2019s armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny. In an unprecedented series of briefings within the past fortnight the general, along with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine\u2019s president, and General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of its ground forces, warned us of the critical few months ahead. \u201cThe Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops,\u201d General Zaluzhny told us. \u201cI have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.\u201d Western sources say that Russia\u2019s commander, General Sergey Surovikin, has always seen this as a multi-year conflict.<\/p>\n
This is not the view outside Ukraine. In the freezing mud, the conflict is thought to be deadlocked. There has been almost no movement for a month along the 1,000km or so of battlefront. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain\u2019s most senior officer, this week said that, right now, a shortage of artillery shells means Russia\u2019s scope for ground operations is \u201crapidly diminishing\u201d.<\/p>\n
The appearance of stalemate is feeding new interest in peace talks. France\u2019s president, Emmanuel Macron, America\u2019s Joe Biden and (for very different reasons) the Russian aggressor, Vladimir Putin, have all in recent days talked about a diplomatic solution. Many in the West, appalled at the suffering, and, more selfishly, wearying of high energy prices, would welcome this. But Ukraine\u2019s commanders argue that it should not happen too soon, and they are right.<\/p>\n
If Ukraine sought to stop the war today, freezing the battle lines where they are, the Russians could prepare better for the next attack.<\/p>\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n In an unprecedented series of briefings, Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelensky and his military commanders warn of a looming Russian offensive and the critical months that lie ahead https:\/\/t.co\/HW9h47yBzB<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/IXWcPHqJLX<\/a><\/p>\n — The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 15, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n