Nor is excess supply the only reason prices still have a way to fall. Nationwide, homes may not be overvalued by much. But in some cities, including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and Miami, they remain very expensive. So while Mr. Hatzius and his Goldman colleagues are somewhat more pessimistic than most forecasters, the difference isn\u2019t enormous.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll confess that this bearish picture isn\u2019t exactly what I had hoped to find. A year ago, as part of a move from New York to Washington, my wife and I bought our first house. We did so fully expecting prices to continue falling (though perhaps not as much as they ultimately will, given the severity of the financial crisis). But we decided they had fallen enough for us to take the plunge. We preferred buying before the bottom of the market instead of renting and having to move again in a year or two.<\/p>\n
Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn\u2019t have to move probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.<\/p>\n
They don\u2019t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you\u2019re trying to decide when to buy, relax.<\/p>\n