In the decades immediately ahead, East Asia will experience perhaps the modern world\u2019s most dramatic demographic shift. All of the region\u2019s main states\u2014China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan\u2014are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people. According to projections from the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic Social Affairs, China\u2019s and Japan\u2019s populations are set to fall by eight percent and 18 percent, respectively, between 2020 and 2050. South Korea\u2019s population is poised to shrink by 12 percent. And Taiwan\u2019s will go down by an estimated eight percent. The U.S. population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12 percent.<\/p>\n
People\u2014human numbers and the potential they embody\u2014are essential to state power. All else being equal, countries with more people have more workers, bigger economies, and a larger pool of potential soldiers. As a result, growing countries find it much easier to augment power and extend influence abroad. Shrinking ones, by contrast, struggle to maintain their sway.<\/p>\n
East Asian countries will be no exception: the realm of the possible for its states will be radically constricted by the coming population drop. They will find it harder to generate economic growth, accumulate investments, and build wealth; to fund their social safety nets; and to mobilize their armed forces. They will face mounting pressure to cope with domestic or internal challenges. Accordingly, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will be prone to look inward. China, meanwhile, will face a growing\u2014and likely unbridgeable\u2014gap between its ambitions and capabilities.<\/p>\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the coming decades, all of East Asia\u2019s main states will experience an era of depopulation, making it more difficult for them to generate economic growth, mobilize armed forces, and extend influence abroad, writes Nicholas Eberstadt.https:\/\/t.co\/uELJupGylq<\/a><\/p>\n — Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) May 8, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \n