The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic \u201cwhale\u201d known only as Th\u00e9o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\u2019s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Th\u00e9o\u2019s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Wall Street Journal\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0on Election Day that \u201cPrediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,\u201d giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls\u00a0showed<\/a>\u00a0the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster\u00a0Nate Silver\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0on election morning: \u201cWe ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,\u201d thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read it all<\/a>.<\/p> \u201cHow the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024.\u201d Did you know that betting on elections is older than opinion polls? And why it\u2019s more likely to predict the result? My latest for \u2066@WSJ<\/a>\u2069 with \u2066@mrinconcruz<\/a>\u2069. https:\/\/t.co\/GqYQP2MmJo<\/a><\/p>— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) November 15, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote>