As of September 2025, Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years. Despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting, there remains no end in sight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There has been a flurry of activity, from talks in Saudi Arabia to Oval Office meetings, and even a summit in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Europeans have spent nearly a year talking among themselves about providing a peacekeeping force, whenever a ceasefire is reached. Yet despite all this diplomacy, multiple meetings, and countless statements, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine\u2019s cities and engage in a brutal, months-long ground offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition\u2014and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine. Should Russia conclude that it cannot fully \u201cwin\u201d and that destroying Ukraine\u2019s military and toppling Ukraine\u2019s democracy is impossible, that does not mean that Moscow will sue for peace. Instead, a next-best option for Russia is likely a forever war, waged at a lower, more sustainable intensity, that would prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union or NATO. This means that the prospects of the Kremlin seeking any diplomatic breakthroughs are extremely low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p> "Ukraine may need to escalate in order to de-escalate, all while maintaining its defensive line at the front," @maxbergmann<\/a> and @MSnegovaya<\/a> write.
Read more from @csiserep<\/a> about the next chapter for Russia's war in Ukraine: https:\/\/t.co\/4IOJGSkvT6<\/a><\/p>— CSIS (@CSIS) October 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote>