A month ago the Government warned us that by the end of August 100,000 people would be getting swine flu every day. Yesterday it produced figures showing that the disease has apparently peaked, with only 30,000 new cases last week. How did they get it so wrong?<\/p>\n
The trouble with warning people about the dangers of swine flu is that you’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. Striking the right balance is impossibly difficult. There are always plenty of commentators ready to scent a scare, but following their insouciant advice is not an option. “Calm down, everybody, it’s only a couple of days feeling a bit peaky” was never the first sentence likely to spring to Sir Liam Donaldson’s lips.<\/p>\n
That said, it’s worth asking if the message has been right, and if it has been based on sound evidence. It’s also worth asking why the Scottish Government has done so much better in providing timely and complete data than the Health Protection Agency in England.<\/p>\n