The Ukraine war may be entering a dangerous new phase as an embattled Russia appears to be weighing whether to escalate the conflict with limited strikes or military incursions against European NATO countries such as the Baltic states or Poland \u2014 betting that the United States wouldn\u2019t intervene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI\u2019d say escalatory risk is real, and growing \u2014 mostly because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is under growing pressure at home and losing on the battlefield,\u201d said former CIA director William Burns in a message to me Monday. The United States has been sharing warnings about the growing danger with European allies for the past month, officials told me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We\u2019re watching a demonstration of how wars can leap the bounds of what strategists call \u201cagreed battle\u201d and become global catastrophes. With Russia caught in a meat grinder in eastern Ukraine, suffering more than 30,000 casualties a month to Kyiv\u2019s drones, the danger is that Putin will try a breakout against the NATO alliance that he claims is his real adversary \u2014 at a moment when the United States is less engaged than at any time in the alliance\u2019s history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p> Europe braces for a Russian provocationhttps:\/\/t.co\/roGYB9LLbN<\/a><\/p>— Tar\u0131k O\u011fuzlu (@TarikOguzlu) July 7, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote>