The White House betting is that the latest crisis, stemming from the March attack, will also abate without much escalation. But there is more than a tinge of doubt. The big risk, as always, is what happens if the North Koreans make a major miscalculation. (It wouldn\u2019t be their first. Sixty years ago, Mr. Kim\u2019s father, Kim Il-sung, thought the West wouldn\u2019t fight when he invaded the South. The result was the Korean War.)<\/p>\n
What\u2019s more, the dynamic does feel different from recent crises. The South has a hardline government whose first instinct was to cut off aid to the North, not offer it new bribes. At the same time, the North is going through a murky, ill-understood succession crisis.<\/p>\n
And President Obama has made it clear he intends to break the old cycle. \u201cWe\u2019re out of the inducements game,\u201d\u009d one senior administration official, who would not discuss internal policy discussions on the record, said last week. \u201cFor 15 years at least, the North Koreans have been in the extortion business, and the U.S. has largely played along. That\u2019s over.\u201d\u009d<\/p>\n
That may change the North\u2019s behavior, but it could backfire.<\/p>\n