If we continue as now seems likely, a crunch is coming \u201d\u201c in fact three crunches \u201d\u201c our global footprint greatly exceeding what the Earth can support, climate destabilisation becoming severe, and fresh water becoming insufficient to feed the Earth\u2019s large population. These crunches will not, by themselves, destroy humanity but they will cause a Darwinian situation; when the going gets tough there will be survival of the fittest. By mid-century, the Earth could be like a lifeboat that\u2019s too small to save everyone.<\/p>\n
To be politically correct, organisations don\u2019t use the term \u201d\u02dcDarwinian\u2019 or talk about \u201d\u02dcsurvival of the fittest\u2019, but I am increasingly finding that at elite dinner parties there is already discussion of who the survivors will be. China has enormous fighting spirit and will soon be the world\u2019s largest economy. In 2030 it will have 1.4 billion people. The average footprint of a Chinese person is a small fraction of an average American. The Chinese government does more detailed future planning than perhaps any other government and is determined that China will be one of the survivors. China has been buying the steel and resources it will need in the future. To the largest extent possible it has already cornered the market in rare Earth metals needed for high technology.<\/p>\n
The USA combined with Canada will be a survivor, because it is economically powerful and resourceful, and with Canada it has a large amount of land, much of which will benefit from global warming \u201d\u201c the breadbasket of the future. Europe, in my mind, is a question mark. Japan will struggle….<\/p>\n