{"id":35420,"date":"2012-11-01T15:15:03","date_gmt":"2012-11-01T15:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1\/site\/2017\/2\/1985\/david_brooks_on_the_polls-they_are_very_limited_in_what_they_can_tell_us\/"},"modified":"2012-11-01T15:15:03","modified_gmt":"2012-11-01T15:15:03","slug":"david_brooks_on_the_polls-they_are_very_limited_in_what_they_can_tell_us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/?p=35420","title":{"rendered":"David Brooks on the Polls&#8211;They are very limited in what they can tell us"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If there\u2019s one thing we know, it\u2019s that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior. Financial firms with zillions of dollars have spent decades trying to create models that will help them pick stocks, and they have gloriously failed.<\/p>\n<p>Scholars at Duke University studied 11,600 forecasts by corporate chief financial officers about how the Standard &#038; Poor\u2019s 500-stock index would perform over the next year. The correlation between their estimates and the actual index was less than zero.<\/p>\n<p>And, if it\u2019s hard to predict stocks or the economy, politics is a field perfectly designed to foil precise projections.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/10\/23\/opinion\/books-poll-addict-confesses.html\">Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If there\u2019s one thing we know, it\u2019s that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior. Financial firms with zillions of dollars have spent decades trying to create models that will help them pick stocks, and<span class=\"ellipsis\">&hellip;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/?p=35420\">Read more &#8250;<\/a><\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":794,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,40,151,129,145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-culture-watch","category-economics-politics","category-politics-in-general","category-psychology","category-us-presidential-election-2012"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/794"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35420"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35420\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kendallharmon.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}