An interim government would be \u201calien to the constitution\u201d\u009d says Mohammed Bello Adoke, the attorney-general. Mr Jonathan told the FT such a government could only emerge from a military coup. However, he could theoretically push back the polls and extend his tenure on a rolling six month basis by declaring the nation at war with Boko Haram insurgents. This would require the \u201d\u201d unlikely \u201d\u201d endorsement of two-thirds of the National Assembly. Alternatively if for whatever reason no winner emerges by May 29, the senate president, former army colonel David Mark, would stand in with 60 days to organise elections.<\/p>\n
The fear is that without popular legitimacy, any government \u201d\u201d military or civilian \u201d\u201d will struggle to repair the fissures that will appear should Gen Buhari\u2019s followers in the north believe him to have been cheated of victory. The same applies to a lesser degree to Mr Jonathan\u2019s supporters, with former warlords in the oil-producing Niger delta threatening to take up arms again should he be bullied out of office. In such a febrile environment, there is a risk of ethnic killing especially in the north \u201d\u201d as happened in 1965 in the run up to the Biafran civil war.<\/p>\n
Nigeria has withdrawn from the brink on a number of occasions since. This time the army, potentially divided and already pinned down by Boko Haram, might have difficulty containing violence across many fronts, and the country\u2019s future as one nation would be at stake. \u201cThese next five weeks are among the most dangerous in Nigeria\u2019s history,\u201d\u009d says Nasir el-Rufai, a former government minister contesting the Kaduna state governorship<\/b>.<\/p>\n