“EURASIA GROUP and The Economist are frequently sympatico,\u201d says Ian Bremmer, \u201cbut not on the French elections.\u201d Mr Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy. He recently took us to task on Twitter regarding our statistical forecast for France\u2019s upcoming election. Our model calculates that Marine Le Pen of the National Front has a 1% chance of becoming the country\u2019s next president. Eurasia pegs her probability at a far higher 40%, and Mr Bremmer wrote that our analysis was the \u201cbiggest mistake I\u2019ve seen from them in ages\u201d.<\/p>\n
After seeing Mr Bremmer\u2019s tweet, our data editor offered him a friendly wager on Ms Le Pen\u2019s electoral fortunes, at the current price on the PredictIt betting market of 30%. After some back-and-forth, we have agreed to a bet at those odds: $60 on Mr Bremmer\u2019s end if Ms Le Pen loses, $140 on our data editor\u2019s side if she wins. Either way, the proceeds will be donated to M\u00e9decins Sans Fronti\u00e8res, a charity. However, the victor will also claim from the vanquished a fine bottle of Meursault wine. \u201cSince we\u2019re betting on Le Pen,\u201d Mr Bremmer says, \u201ca French white seems required\u201d.<\/p>\n
In addition to our wager, we have invited Mr Bremmer to share with our readers an explanation of how Eurasia Group reached its conclusion that Ms Le Pen has a 40% shot to win, and responded with an account of our own reasoning. We hope you enjoy the debate.<\/p>\n