Obviously, next year\u2019s deficit is a problem. And if you assume the credit crisis isn\u2019t about to lift \u201d\u201d which seems smart at this point \u201d\u201d the ultimate cost of the bailouts could conceivably go higher. Whatever the final figure, it should still be put in some context.<\/p>\n
Despite everything, the biggest fiscal problem remains, far and away, health care. Based on the rate that medical spending has been rising, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that Medicare and Medicaid will take up 10 percent of G.D.P. within two decades, up from about 4 percent now. In today\u2019s terms, that would be the equivalent of adding at least $900 billion to the deficit every single year, in perpetuity. It makes the cost of the bailouts look like a rounding error.<\/p>\n
When it comes to health care, we have a situation that is blatantly unsustainable. With the right choices, we can prevent that. But so far, we instead seem to be hoping that the situation will magically resolve itself, which is a recipe for big problems and perhaps even a crisis.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s see. That doesn\u2019t sound familiar, does it?<\/p>\n