This is important. There\u2019s no U.S. data yet on what the right side of the curve will look like, but the best available evidence from other countries suggests that the descent will be slow. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has said \u201cthe worst is over\u201d and \u201cwe\u2019ve reached the peak.\u201d He should have followed with \u201cnow comes the long wait.\u201d<\/p>\n
This shouldn\u2019t be surprising. All our efforts to stay inside and separated \u2013- except for essential activities such as shopping, and except for those who must work \u2013- serve only to slow the spread, not stop it. If you\u2019re hoping for the somewhat symmetrical China curve, forget it. We\u2019re not quarantining people at gunpoint. It\u2019s like someone took the worst-case-scenario curve and pushed it forward in time, without making the area under the curve smaller.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s an analogy. Imagine a plow spreading out a big pile of snow in the street. If it keeps the blade higher, the pile will be taller and won\u2019t spread out very far. If it lowers the blade to a few inches off the ground, the snow will be more manageable but also spread out much farther. The better it does the job \u2013 the thinner it spreads the snow — the longer it will take.<\/p>\n
If people stick with measures to contain the virus, death rates will eventually trickle down to zero, but only after a lot more people have been infected, assuming they are then immune. If we\u2019re lucky, we\u2019ll slow things down enough to never truly overwhelm the hospitals, and if we\u2019re really lucky we\u2019ll slow things down long enough to benefit from a vaccine or a treatment.<\/p>\n
Read it all<\/a>.<\/p>\n This Isn\u2019t the Flattened Curve We Were Promised<\/p>\n “It\u2019s like someone took the worst-case-scenario curve and pushed it forward in time, without making the area under the curve smaller.”https:\/\/t.co\/8ls11iV2i5<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Jack Posobiec, IWO (@JackPosobiec) April 17, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n