I wonder whether intrade is as dependable as it was in the beginning. I don’t think it saw Palin coming at all. On top of that, it’s greatest vulnerability is being seen as a political tool that can be manipulated. The more people refer to it the more tempting it is for factions with large sums of cash to influence the trading.
The Lichtman Keys have long indicated a Democratic win, no matter who the nominees were. See here: http://tinyurl.com/5jyemy
Nevertheless, I believe that McCain has a sufficient history that he should be treated not as belonging to the Republican party, but almost an independent, with no Republican running. I think the best parts of McCain’s speech on Thursday was his gentle, but clear disassociation from the Bush presidency and the corrupt GOP congress. His choice of Sarah Palin, another maverick reformer reinforces this. I say all bets are off and while Obama should win, the contest is truly up in the air.
Re: Clinton – I always thought she was more electable in 2008 despite her high negatives (and I can’t stand either of the Clintons). Even at this late date, I wouldn’t count Clinton out – Obama’s part of the Chicago scene. What if Tony Rezko cuts a deal and implicates Obama?
#7 interesting analysis, not that I would totally agree with Lichtman’s assumptions. But looking at the keys and allowing for some revisions:
Key 1 (Party mandate): House status. (False)
>>OK
Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (True)
>>I’d say there was a question about this, but unchanged.
Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (False)
>>Literally yes, but less than clear given McCain’s historic positions and running against Bush on several/at several points. But to flip this, you’d have to flip Key 2, so it is a net wash.
Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (True)
>>OK
Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (Uncertain)
>>Change to True, though debatable.
Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (False)
>>OK
Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (False)
>>Hunh? Major changes in foreign policy. Change to True.
Key 8 (Social Unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True)
>>OK
Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (True)
>>OK
Key 10 (Foreignâ„Military Failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (False)
>>Hunh? Depends on which way you prefer to define “failure”. Should be “Uncertain” and debatably “True”.
Key 11 (Foreignâ„Military Success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (False)
>>Hunh? Same as Key 10, though “success” is the semantic issue this time. Iraq is at worst indicative of “Uncertain” and could be “True”.
Key 12 (Incumbent Charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)
>>Oh, right, our “national heroes” have to walk on water for Lichtman to approve, I suppose. This is so obviously “True” that Sen Obama has agreed several times.
Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Uncertain)
>>Debatably OK. Depends on the rest of the campaign.
True: 4 Keys; False: 7 Keys; Uncertain: 2 Keys Prediction: The party in power loses.
>>Revised total: True: 7, False: 3, Uncertain: 3. Just my opinions, but using Lichtman’s own criteria, McCain wins.
As in many previous elections, this thing is going to be won in PA, OH, MI and WI. If McCain gets two of those four, I think he wins. Side note: I find it fascinating that California has become a one party state on the presidential level – have not gone Republican since 1988.
#10 great site with lots of other polls that show the uncertainty of those “dead-heat” numbers as well. Like OH or CO, which could flip either way tomorrow.
The important things are going to be surprises and trends. This campaign is going to get dirty, really quickly, in an attempt at producing “surprises”. That is the one political virtue McCain and Biden have in common: being around for so long everyone knows about plagarism and Keating 5 type issues.
In the same way Hillary relied on ‘campaign managers’ to float attack ads, Obama is going to rely on MoveOn and McCain has Hannity. With these two they can claim deniability and get away with anything.
(I firmly believe Obama is behind the attacks on Palin, in the same way Hillary was behind the Campaign Managers words.)
Another site along the lines of realclearpolitics.com is http://fivethirtyeight.com. They use a slightly different methodology, but at the moment their conclusion is in the same ballpark: Obama has a noticeable but slim lead in likely electoral votes.
Speaking as a liberal, I of course devoutly hope that Obama wins. I would have preferred Hillary, but alas, it was not to be. I respect McCain’s background and some of his stances — particularly the way he stood up to the Bush administration on torture — but he sold his soul to the Republican party for the nomination. As for Palin, it’s not her experience or character I object to, it’s her political views.
http://www.electoral-vote.com is also a good one to keep an eye on. The guy who runs it is usually pretty non-partisan, although his daily content has gotten a bit more partisan. He was pretty accurate the last two elections though and gives plenty of accurate polls for every state.
Clinton???
I wonder whether intrade is as dependable as it was in the beginning. I don’t think it saw Palin coming at all. On top of that, it’s greatest vulnerability is being seen as a political tool that can be manipulated. The more people refer to it the more tempting it is for factions with large sums of cash to influence the trading.
I can’t believe that over 2% of the electorate still are carrying a torch for Hillary Clinton…or maybe they want Bill back.
How do I buy a share of Harold Stassen?
#2 like any market, it is prey to speculations and bubbles.
#3 ever hear of a “dead cat bounce”?
Yeah, it’s the first book by Sarah Graves in her “home repair is homicide” series.
Works for me.
The Lichtman Keys have long indicated a Democratic win, no matter who the nominees were. See here: http://tinyurl.com/5jyemy
Nevertheless, I believe that McCain has a sufficient history that he should be treated not as belonging to the Republican party, but almost an independent, with no Republican running. I think the best parts of McCain’s speech on Thursday was his gentle, but clear disassociation from the Bush presidency and the corrupt GOP congress. His choice of Sarah Palin, another maverick reformer reinforces this. I say all bets are off and while Obama should win, the contest is truly up in the air.
Re: Clinton – I always thought she was more electable in 2008 despite her high negatives (and I can’t stand either of the Clintons). Even at this late date, I wouldn’t count Clinton out – Obama’s part of the Chicago scene. What if Tony Rezko cuts a deal and implicates Obama?
#7 interesting analysis, not that I would totally agree with Lichtman’s assumptions. But looking at the keys and allowing for some revisions:
Key 1 (Party mandate): House status. (False)
>>OK
Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (True)
>>I’d say there was a question about this, but unchanged.
Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (False)
>>Literally yes, but less than clear given McCain’s historic positions and running against Bush on several/at several points. But to flip this, you’d have to flip Key 2, so it is a net wash.
Key 4 (Third Party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (True)
>>OK
Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (Uncertain)
>>Change to True, though debatable.
Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (False)
>>OK
Key 7 (Policy Change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (False)
>>Hunh? Major changes in foreign policy. Change to True.
Key 8 (Social Unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (True)
>>OK
Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (True)
>>OK
Key 10 (Foreignâ„Military Failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (False)
>>Hunh? Depends on which way you prefer to define “failure”. Should be “Uncertain” and debatably “True”.
Key 11 (Foreignâ„Military Success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (False)
>>Hunh? Same as Key 10, though “success” is the semantic issue this time. Iraq is at worst indicative of “Uncertain” and could be “True”.
Key 12 (Incumbent Charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)
>>Oh, right, our “national heroes” have to walk on water for Lichtman to approve, I suppose. This is so obviously “True” that Sen Obama has agreed several times.
Key 13 (Challenger Charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Uncertain)
>>Debatably OK. Depends on the rest of the campaign.
True: 4 Keys; False: 7 Keys; Uncertain: 2 Keys Prediction: The party in power loses.
>>Revised total: True: 7, False: 3, Uncertain: 3. Just my opinions, but using Lichtman’s own criteria, McCain wins.
I suppose Intrade is no more accurate or reliable than AOL polls claiming that McCain is noticably ahead of Obama.
here is the electoral projection showing Obama with a VERY slight lead (7 electoral votes):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
As in many previous elections, this thing is going to be won in PA, OH, MI and WI. If McCain gets two of those four, I think he wins. Side note: I find it fascinating that California has become a one party state on the presidential level – have not gone Republican since 1988.
#10 great site with lots of other polls that show the uncertainty of those “dead-heat” numbers as well. Like OH or CO, which could flip either way tomorrow.
The important things are going to be surprises and trends. This campaign is going to get dirty, really quickly, in an attempt at producing “surprises”. That is the one political virtue McCain and Biden have in common: being around for so long everyone knows about plagarism and Keating 5 type issues.
Tom,
In the same way Hillary relied on ‘campaign managers’ to float attack ads, Obama is going to rely on MoveOn and McCain has Hannity. With these two they can claim deniability and get away with anything.
(I firmly believe Obama is behind the attacks on Palin, in the same way Hillary was behind the Campaign Managers words.)
Interesting trends.
Another site along the lines of realclearpolitics.com is http://fivethirtyeight.com. They use a slightly different methodology, but at the moment their conclusion is in the same ballpark: Obama has a noticeable but slim lead in likely electoral votes.
Speaking as a liberal, I of course devoutly hope that Obama wins. I would have preferred Hillary, but alas, it was not to be. I respect McCain’s background and some of his stances — particularly the way he stood up to the Bush administration on torture — but he sold his soul to the Republican party for the nomination. As for Palin, it’s not her experience or character I object to, it’s her political views.
So I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Obama.
It used to be that folks looked at what the Las Vegas oddsmakers were given…there is not much of a track record for Intrade, is there?
I notice since July it has been a pretty steady downward for Obama and a pretty steady upward for McCain.
http://www.electoral-vote.com is also a good one to keep an eye on. The guy who runs it is usually pretty non-partisan, although his daily content has gotten a bit more partisan. He was pretty accurate the last two elections though and gives plenty of accurate polls for every state.