For a time on Friday, it seemed that Mousavi might be able to call for an uprising in Tehran. But the moment passed when Ahmadinejad’s security forces on motorcycles intervened. And that leaves the West with its worst-case scenario: a democratically elected anti-liberal.
Western democracies assume that publics will elect liberals who will protect their rights. In reality, it’s a more complicated world. Hitler is the classic example of someone who came to power constitutionally, and then proceeded to gut the constitution. Similarly, Ahmadinejad’s victory is a triumph of both democracy and repression.
The question now is what will happen next. Internally, we can expect Ahmadinejad to consolidate his position under the cover of anti-corruption. He wants to clean up the ayatollahs, many of whom are his enemies. He will need the support of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This election has made Ahmadinejad a powerful president, perhaps the most powerful in Iran since the revolution. Ahmadinejad does not want to challenge Khamenei, and we suspect that Khamenei will not want to challenge Ahmadinejad. A forced marriage is emerging, one which may place many other religious leaders in a difficult position.
I must respectfully disagree with the claim that Ahmadinejad was democratically elected. All of the evidence I have seen so far points to a pretty brazenly stolen election. It sounds like Ahmadinejad did not particularly care to even try to disguise the theft.
My real disagreements with the thug running that country do not extend to the people on the street, most of whom are very decent. My heart goes out to them. They have just woken up to discover that they do not in fact live in a democratic country, but rather an authoritarian police state. That has to be a rather wrenching experience.
Kind of like us? You know we do have a Constitution. So where is the birth certificate?
Ad Orientem is right about the Thug.
http://college-ethics.blogspot.com/2009/06/ahmadinejad-cracks-down-on-reporters.html
That article in the wake of today’s events with a two to three million-strong protest demonstation makes ludicrous presumptions about if Ahmadinejad and his cronies will be able to hold on.
Actually, reports of Ahmadinejad’s victory seem extraordinarily premature. There were more than a million opposition supporters in the streets yesterday. You didn’t see it on CNN, because they’re compromising with the state to stay in the country, unlike all other media that’s been shut down. The election was blatantly stolen. Ahmadinajad winning both his opponent’s hometown and ethnic minority are ridiculous on the face of it. The popular third candidate only getting 1% of the vote also ridiculous.
There are persistent rumors out of Iran that Ahmadinajad actually came in -third-. And while this may stretch credulity, it’s more believable than the official figures.
In 2005, Ahmadinejad took 5.7 million votes in the first round compared to 6.2 million for the technocrat Rafsanjani and 5.1 million for the principal reformist Karroubi. Another 5.8 million went to minor conservatives and another 6.7 million to minor reformists.
In the second round, 3 million voters sat out the election and Ahmadinejad not only corralled the conservative vote but pulled in another 6 million votes. The Reformist and Technocrat vote was 18 million in the first round but Rafsanjani took only 10 million votes in the second round (even allowing for the 3 million non-voters, he apparently lost an additional 5 million).
On the face of it, then, Ahmadinejad’s reported 63 percent in 2009 is not so far removed from his reported 62 percent in the second round of 2005. Now he is an incumbent whipping up patriotic fervor over the nuclear program. If the heavy increase in turnout was in the same proportion for both major candidates, then the countrywide result is not impossible. What throws things so much into doubt is the uniformity of the returns, without regional or demographic variation. You almost wonder if the regime may have been too clever for its own good, trying to engineer a resounding victory instead of being content with a comfortable one.
Br. Michael, I echo your query. The thing that jumped out at me was “…someone who came to power constitutionally, and then proceeded to gut the constitution.”
T
Neo-conservatives seem to prefer an Ahmadinejad win because a lose would seem to indicate that Obama’s diplomatic tactics diminished his ability to make the US the great Satan. Young Iranians get the internet also….
I’m sure glad Israel didn’t bomb Iran. Because then Amadinejad would have been right.
here Brother Michael
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/birthcertificate.asp
There are good reasons to critique Obama. This is not one of them. If anything, it reminds me of this:
http://tpmtv.talkingpointsmemo.com/?id=2706277
The question has been whether an Islamic regime can be actually democratic. The religion, which is at the same time a political and legal system, has been characterized by leaders and obedient followers since its beginning. In Iran, the ayatollahs choose which candidates may run. It’s not an open system to begin with. So the public suspects its choice among even the regime-approved candidates has not been honored. This is hardly “democracy” as we know it, or even as it is next door in Iraq.
JW,
Thanks for that link. I can count on maybe 3 fingers the number of times I have agreed with Obama (and two of them were probably the date and time of day). That said the whole birth certificate thing has reached the point of urban legend among those on the political fringe. It’s kinda like the Kennedy assassination and the alleged multiple gunmen or the supposedly faked moon landing. After a while things reach the point where producing even mountains of evidence is pointless. The legend gains a life of its own and is impervious to facts or reason.
All of that said the man scares the $@#% out of me as president (lawfully elected though he was).
The Jerusalem Post reports that Ahmadinejad’s thugs have killed at least 20 protestors. It has footage of a thug shooting people from a roof.
Ahmadinejad’s primary opponent can’t be located. Many who supported him are in hiding.
Main Thug is in Russia today and USA is urging him to attend nuclear talks. Business as usual among world powers.
http://college-ethics.blogspot.com/2009/06/civil-unrest-irans-new-reality.html
Its a certificate of live birth NOT the actual birth certificate. That document has not been released and Obama refuses to have it released. Ordinarily I would agree that this is nuts, but the dogged resistance in making the actual birth certificate caused me to reconsider. So where is the birth certificate?
Br. Michael, the suspicion about Obama is that he wasn’t born in Hawaii, but allegedly in Kenya. This theory, it seems to me, is an anachronism which assumes that a heavily pregnant woman in 1961 could conveniently travel to Kenya, give birth there, and return to Hawaii to register the birth. I have been heavily pregnant, and have experienced the post-natal exhaustion, and I remember travel in the early 60s. It is an extremely unlikely theory. Plus, no one has explained why the parents would have done this. It wasn’t, for the father, a marriage as we think of it. It was for his entertainment while he was in Hawaii, and he already had a wife in Kenya.
On this item, I agree with John Wilkins. I have lots of other very good reasons to oppose Obama’s policies.
All of the evidence I have seen so far points to a pretty brazenly stolen election.
What “evidence” have we seen? I am not defending the election process in Iran, but I have not been presented with any “evidence” and I have kept up with the story. Is there something I am missing?
Kind of like us? You know we do have a Constitution. So where is the birth certificate?
Br Michael, it is hard to imagine that anyone with the ability to read or write can be this ignorant.
Its a certificate of live birth NOT the actual birth certificate.
It’s a certification of live birth. A certificate of live birth and a birth certificate are only different in form. If your info comes from conservative sites and talk radio, you really should do more research.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_a_certification_of_live_birth_the_same_thing_as_a_birth_certificate_in_Hawaii
I’m sorry, are we talking about Obama or Ahmadinejad? 🙂
On another note, I think this is one of the more intelligent reports I’ve read about the situation in Iran. Friedman does a good job breaking down some key points, like Ahmadinejad’s popularity, a concept that completely baffles most Westerners. And regardless how one feels about the current president of the US, we need to pray for wisdom as he navigates some difficult waters over the next few years with Iran. Our former president dealt abominably with the situation.
Critique Obama on health care.
On gay marriage.
On Marijuana policies.
On foreign policy.
On his handling of the economy.
All worthy.
Not this. I’m not sure how we have things “released” but it’s been checked physically. There is even a copy on the internet.
If you had just clicked the link you would find a few things: the newspaper in Hawaii had reported the birth. And that the seal is on the other side of what is presented on the internet. People have seen the birth certificate and it looks like other birth certificates from Hawaii in that era. So not only is there evidence, is corroborated.
He’s the president, Brother, legitimately so, with 53.x percent of the vote. And right now, if he were to run, he’d get 445 electoral votes.
Bryan, you are right. It is a CERTIFICATION of live birth and it contains much less information than an actual Hawaii birth certificate which is titled Certificate of Live Birth. Here is a link to a site that shows the difference: http://peoplespassions.org/peoplesvoice/Birth_Certificate.htm
It is also possible that what Omaba has produced would not be sufficient to even get an American pasport: http://travel.state.gov/passport/get/first/first_830.html
[blockquote]The Statement Department says that for proof of citizenship a certified birth certificate may be used. The web site then says:
*A certified birth certificate has a registrar’s raised, embossed, impressed or multicolored seal, registrar’s signature, and the date the certificate was filed with the registrar’s office, which must be within 1 year of your birth. [b]Please note, some short (abstract) versions of birth certificates may not be acceptable for passport purposes.[/b][/blockquote]
So its not that simple. And it could all be cleared up if the silly original full certificate were released.
Can we [b][i]PLEASE[/i][/b] talk about Iran here, and not Obama? I’m really interested to know what other Americans think (or if they even care all that much), as someone living in the Middle East. It’s a HUGE deal here, even among the Arabs (Christian and Muslim).
Maybe my question has already been answered, since half of the comments here are about Obama and have absolutely nothing to do with the article that was posted.
WanderingTexan, I’m not sure anyone has information, which may explain the off-topic comments. It’s very difficult to tell what’s happening in Iran. Apparently people are using Twitter to get news and photos out, but it’s impossible to verify lots of that. [url=http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55F29J20090616]Here’s[/url] a Tuesday update from Reuters, but really, who knows what’s happening?
So far as I can tell Egyptians, who are Sunnis, are not fans of the Iranian regime, even the conservative Muslims here.