Zooming in on the prices of affected categories at a few large retailers, Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and co-authors do discern some slight price rises in both imported goods and their domestically produced competitors (see chart 2). However, such prices have risen by only a percent or two—a far smaller increase than that seen in tariffs. America’s effective tariff rate is now at 12%, according to calculations by the Tax Foundation, a think-tank, its highest in nearly a century. Reverting to Mr Trump’s initial Liberation Day offering would mean a significant step up.
Oddly, though, tariffs may be pushing down prices via another mechanism—by taking a toll on the economy. The Liberation Day drama crushed consumer confidence, possibly softening demand. Until recently, this has been evident only in “soft” data (surveys and the like). Now signs of it are starting to appear in “hard” data, too. A recent release showed that household spending fell month-to-month in May. Employment figures for June were strong, but bolstered by government hiring, especially of teachers. Those for the private sector were lower than expected.
A running estimate of GDP, produced by the Fed’s Atlanta branch, suggests that its core components (private investment and consumption) have fallen from an annualised growth rate of 2-3% at the start of the second quarter to 1% now (see chart 3). Goldman Sachs, a bank, has compared the latest data to previous “event driven” shocks that led to recessions, and found that today’s slowdown is roughly in line with the historical norm.
Spotting a tariff impact on America’s economy requires a microscopic look at the data. Whether slight price rises are the start of something more serious depends, in large part, on how punchy the president feels on Wednesday https://t.co/Qq0TVCtGzq
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) July 8, 2025
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