So here’s what we know. This year’s gold rally has come in fits and starts. The April move was about a loss of confidence in the Dollar, a move that’s since run out of steam. The move since Jackson Hole is about “global debasement” and coincides with three notable developments: (i) there’s a global rise in long-term government bond yields as markets increasingly worry about unsustainable fiscal policy in many places; (ii) the universe of safe haven countries has shrunk because Germany and Japan are at the forefront of the global rise in yields; and (iii) the few safe haven countries that remain – notably Switzerland – are small, with limited capacity to absorb safe haven inflows. These three forces are supercharging the rise in gold prices, which is really about the global deterioration in fiscal sustainability and growing risk that debt overhangs will be inflated away.
What we don’t know is who is driving the latest rise in gold prices. There’s endless rumors about another round of central bank buying, but I am skeptical. There’s a clear macro catalyst to the latest move in the form of Jackson Hole. I find it hard to believe that central banks in emerging markets will be trading such a catalyst. It’s more likely that this is a genuine market move, with a growing number of investors worried about fiscal sustainability and debasement. If that’s true, the gold move can go a lot further.
What's driving the crazy rise in gold prices? At its root, it's about fear that the Fed has capitulated to Trump and is easing into an economy where inflation is rising. This week's IMF/WB meetings may end the gold rally and replace it with a Dollar rally.https://t.co/fFtYIbm3tT pic.twitter.com/HhhBK2vISo
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) October 16, 2025