The news is full of how an ignominious peace deal with Iran exemplifies a decline in American power. That conclusion could hardly be more wrong. On June 12th the Trump administration ordered Anthropic to block foreigners from Fable and Mythos, its latest and most capable frontier AI models. In an instant, everyone learned that the American government can decide who may use the world’s most important technology. You don’t get much more powerful than that.

The administration was responding to a supposed jailbreak for Fable, meaning a prompt that circumvents defences against uses such as hacking computers or making bioweapons. The chances are that it wanted Anthropic to switch off the models for everyone, and that targeting foreigners was a means to an end. Sure enough, that is what Anthropic did, while claiming that the concern about its model was overblown. The legal basis of the order remains unclear, and the ban seems unlikely to last.

What matters, though, is the demonstration that global access to the best AI may come down to a decision in the Oval Office. The administration showed in March that it is prepared to trample on the frontier AI companies, when it designated Anthropic a “supply-chain risk”. Now it has shown that it is prepared to trample on users, too.

America must decide how to wield this vast new power. The rest of the world must decide what to do about it. Even as it plans for an unreliable America in everything from defence to trade, it now has to cope with a new way of being captive to the world’s biggest economy.

Read it all.

Even as the world plans for an unreliable America in everything from defence to trade, it now has to cope with America’s dominance in AI https://t.co/xrMSKZAFWb

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 18, 2026

Something new is stirring on the left. A fresh crop of socialists want to remake the economy with price controls, hefty wealth taxes and a spree of nationalisations. Supercharged by fury over Gaza, they are winning voters at a formidable pace. Many rose to prominence only recently, like Zack Polanski, who leads the Green Party in Britain, or Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York. Others are long-standing political fixtures: the septuagenarian Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on his fourth swing at the French presidency, but thumping support from the 20-somethings of “Generation Z” has put the Elysée back in his sights again.

Call it Gen-Z socialism. Not because all its adherents are young—or because it is new for young people to lean leftward—but because it is the brand of leftism, made for the TikTok era, that today’s young revolutionaries support.

Forget weighty collectivist ideals or seizing the means of production. Gen-Z socialism is a me-first doctrine. Climate change and race, preoccupations of the 2010s and early 2020s, are now much more peripheral concerns. So are social issues, barring Gaza. Angst about inflation, housing and artificial intelligence have replaced all that with something cruder. “This country is awash in wealth,” says Avi Lewis, freshly elected leader of the New Democratic Party in Canada, a country where productivity has been all but flat for a decade. “We can have nice things.” Saying that prices should be capped to keep your bills down while someone else pays for your public services is a seductive, shareable message.

Read it all.

Gen-Z socialism is wrong about how to fix the problems of capitalism. It must be resisted, because it is a profound threat to prosperity https://t.co/6n1i5xrJV2

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 4, 2026

Bullets and bombs killed nearly three-quarters of a million people in wars between 2021 and 2024. Many more died from the indirect effects of conflict, such as hunger and disease. Combat deaths in the past four years have been the highest since the end of the cold war. And for what purpose? Not even the leaders who started recent wars can be pleased with the results. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a humiliating quagmire for Vladimir Putin. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran has gone badly awry. These two wars of choice exemplify two new battlefield truths. Technology has made it harder for any army to advance on the ground. It has also made it easier for weaker powers, when attacked by stronger ones, to cause havoc.

In a valedictory essay this week, The Economist’s defence editor reflects on how war has changed over the past decade and how it might evolve in the future. The first big shift is that soldiers are more exposed on the battlefield. Sensors and satellites can see them; small, cheap drones can kill them. Armies have to work harder than before to hide, move and survive. Ukraine’s expanding front-line “kill zone”, where soldiers move in small groups and ground robots evacuate casualties and deliver supplies, embodies this shift.

Technology quickly spreads. Israeli soldiers in Lebanon now face the same kind of drones that were pioneered in Ukraine. Iranian missiles are far more accurate than the Iraqi Scuds fired during the first Gulf war. Were China to attempt to invade Taiwan, its landing forces would be met with a blizzard of drones. Air superiority is now harder to achieve and buys soldiers less protection than before, thanks to the new drone-saturated layer of airspace.

Some experts draw the lesson that manoeuvre—attacking an enemy’s soft spots through shock and rapid movement—is no longer possible. But war is a Darwinian environment, driving constant adaptation, and the battlefield is never frozen for long….

Read it all.

In future wars involving long-range drones and missiles, Western civilians will not enjoy the sanctuary they have come to take for granted. The laws and technology of armed conflict have changed https://t.co/MaIcvygB4S

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) May 28, 2026

Many of the founders and important researchers at Anthropic and OpenAI joined the earliest gatherings at A.G.I. House. Mr. [Jeremy] Nixon is now founder and chief executive of a start-up called the Infinity Artificial Intelligence Institute, which is trying to automate the creation of A.I.

Mr. Nixon said he has met a generation of scientists who shunned traditional religion in favor of technology. After growing up with books like “The God Delusion” — in which the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins painted God as a false belief contradicted by empirical evidence — he and his peers saw A.I. as an alternative that was more real and far more powerful.

A.I. has started to crack math problems that humans struggled with for decades, he said, and it will soon cure diseases in the same way. “Practically speaking, it will achieve the outcomes that many religions claim their deities would be able to achieve,” he said.

This is an increasingly common belief among researchers in Silicon Valley. They insist they are on their way to building a more powerful species — or even a new God.

Read it all.

At the Epicenter of A.I., Pope Leo’s Warnings Are Dismissed
Pope Leo XIV’s spiritual message on artificial intelligence arrived as Silicon Valley’s A.I. enthusiasts pursue their own spirituality through technology.https://t.co/FLBlOaknrL

— Emily Turrettini (@textually) May 27, 2026

As the historian Leszek Kołakowski observed, Marxism functioned for many as “the greatest fantasy of our century”—a promise that history itself would bring final justice.

G.K. Chesterton captured the problem: Marx simply replaces one abstraction with another. But abstractions such as “historical inevitability” can’t produce justice on their own, because justice depends on the moral character of the persons who act within those systems.

The deep question for our own moment is whether modern politics can resist the temptation to which Marxists surrender. Every generation is drawn to the hope that history itself will resolve its deepest conflicts. Marx gave that hope its most powerful modern expression by translating theological categories into the language of political economy. But as Eric Voegelin once warned, attempts to “immanentize the eschaton”—to force heaven into history—have repeatedly produced political disasters.

Marx didn’t abolish the Christian structure of redemption. He relocated it within history—and that relocation continues to shape the political imagination of the modern world.

Read it all.

Very interesting article. The central claim is that Karl Marx did not actually deny the redemption promised by religion, but rather relocated it in time. https://t.co/5LjYMR5YiV

— BajaTed (@bajated) May 21, 2026

In this episode of the Anglican Perspective Podcast, Canon Mark Eldredge sits down in Oxford, England with Susie Leafe, Director of Anglican Futures UK, for a thoughtful conversation on the future of global Anglicanism in the wake of recent developments across the Communion. Together, they discuss the installation of the new Archbishop of Canterbury, the response of Gafcon and Global South leaders, the growing realignment within worldwide Anglicanism, and the challenges facing faithful Anglicans in England and Wales. Recorded near the historic Oxford Martyrs’ Memorial, this episode reflects on what it means to remain rooted in biblical faithfulness during a time of institutional uncertainty, while also offering hope for renewal, clarity, and Gospel witness in the years ahead.

Listen here

For nine days, they trudged across the parched soil of southern Somalia, taking turns carrying their 3-year-old daughter on their shoulders. Abdullahi Abdi Abdirahman, his wife and their seven children sought escape from a landscape drained of life.

Another drought had killed their goats and sheep, turning their life savings to dust. So they pressed on for 140 miles toward Dollow, a dusty outpost on the Ethiopian border. They were drawn by the same things that had already attracted more than 100,000 other people: International relief organizations were clustered there, offering food, water and health care.

Yet when they arrived in late January at a camp on the fringes of town, they were horrified to learn that aid groups had abandoned the area. President Trump had dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, or U.S.A.I.D., eliminating Somalia’s primary source of assistance. From London to Berlin, governments had reduced funding for humanitarian aid. Relief organizations had been forced to choose where to focus their remaining money.

Dollow had not made the cut. Inside the camps, thousands of tents remained, but aid was disappearing. Families were losing cash grants for food. Health clinics were bereft of medicines and staff.

Read it all.

Catastrophe Is Emerging in the World’s Most Vulnerable Placeshttps://t.co/qoXk95478x

— Kevin Purcell (@KevinPurcell_) May 20, 2026

The Israeli military is increasingly sceptical that regime change in Iran will be possible in the coming weeks, casting doubt on one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s core war aims as the Islamic republic shows its ability to endure intense bombardment.

Two people familiar with the matter said the prevailing view within military intelligence was that the war had not created the conditions for ousting the Islamic regime in the near future. One of them, who is familiar with briefings from the Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence directorate Aman, said it appeared that the aerial campaign had yet to measurably erode the Iranian regime’s hold on power since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28.

Both people spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the evolving thinking within the IDF, rather than an official assessment.

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Israeli military doubts war will topple Iranian regime https://t.co/hphrOjqqGv

— Financial Times (@FT) March 26, 2026

The future shape of the Global Anglican Communion is being debated this week in Abuja, Nigeria. At the GAFCON conference, more than 400 bishops and global leaders are working through the logic of the proposal that could lead to a new Global Anglican Communion — a fellowship grounded in the authority of Scripture and historic Anglican doctrine.

On Day 2 of the conference, Dominic Steele speaks with key leaders including Vaughan Roberts (Oxford), Julian Dobbs (ACNA), and Richard Condie (Tasmania), along with presenters from Uganda, Brazil and Nigeria.

They discuss: • The implications of the Church of England’s current trajectory • The logic behind a reordered global communion

• The mission opportunity for global Anglicans • What this could mean for churches in the UK, North America and Australia

Watch and listen to it all.

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come….

Read it all.

The war in Iran threatens to unleash a wave of inflation at a time when economies worldwide are already in a tight spot. Read more in the Canada Daily newsletter. https://t.co/iWX5sR3kZB

— Bloomberg (@business) March 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

1. The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.  The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.
2. The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3, including the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran, as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution. Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran. 
3. Iranian leaders have devolved powers to lower-level officials in response to the combined force’s strikes targeting senior officials and central decision-making institutions, likely to ensure continued state functions despite disruptions to central Iranian leadership.
4. The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.
5. Iran continued to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US forces and sites in Gulf countries, which has prompted two US embassies to close.
6. The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

Read it all.

NEW: The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of… pic.twitter.com/btsumD6mAY

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 4, 2026

In 1973 a club of Arab petrostates held the world to ransom by halting crude-oil exports to countries they accused of supporting Israel. Petrol prices soared; Western economies buckled. Today the danger is that China will use its grip on other natural resources to achieve its aims, such as seizing Taiwan. It has already shown its power by choking off exports of rare-earth metals last year. That is why America is staging its biggest intervention in commodity markets in decades.

The battleground is the supply of “critical” metals, a group of minerals vital to making military, electrical and computing infrastructure—everything modern economies need to be safe, high-tech and green. China supplies most of these: it mines about 80% of the world’s tungsten, for instance, and refines 99% of its gallium. This is spurring America into an all-out campaign to diversify its sourcing of 60 minerals. It has pledged billions of dollars to dozens of mining projects at home and abroad, floated plans to create price floors and trade blocs, and announced a vast stockpile to cover months of national needs. The risk now is that America depends too much on its scattershot efforts—and that, in seeking control, it breaks the flexible and resilient system of market incentives that ensures the smooth functioning of the global economy.

China’s grip on critical minerals has exposed the West’s most serious strategic weakness in many years. Last April, during its trade war with America, China restricted exports of seven crucial rare earths; it targeted another five in October. Nearly a third of Pentagon procurement programmes faced the risk of shortages, as did industries from carmaking to renewable energy. The prospect of large-scale disruption prodded President Donald Trump into a trade truce with Xi Jinping, as well as a relaxation of American controls on some technology exports. Yet Mr Xi can deploy the weapon again whenever he chooses. Meanwhile, exports of rare earths for dual-use applications—the expanding grey zone between military and civilian uses—remain largely barred, sapping Western efforts to rearm….

Read it all.

America is racing to break China’s chokehold on critical minerals—but its approach has flaws. It should follow three principles https://t.co/t5SkUsYgjf pic.twitter.com/BgoWViJBZv

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) February 26, 2026

Donald Trump’s new 15 per cent global tariff will most greatly benefit countries he has singled out for heavy criticism, including China and Brazil, data analysis shows.

An examination of the new regime by independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert found that Brazil will enjoy the biggest reduction in average tariff rates — falling by 13.6 percentage points — followed by China, with a 7.1 percentage point reduction.

Long-standing US allies including the UK, the EU and Japan will suffer the largest hit from the new levy, which the US president introduced after the Supreme Court ruled much of his previous trade policy unlawful on Friday.

Read it all.

Trump’s new flat-rate tariff will boost China and Brazil https://t.co/lGsVynEEwa

— Financial Times (@FT) February 22, 2026

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics since its founding in 1955, ruling with only two brief interruptions. Never has it won as decisively as it did in a snap election on February 8th, when it took almost 70% of the seats in parliament’s powerful lower house. Takaichi Sanae, the triumphant prime minister, now has a historic chance to transform her country. She must not squander it.

To live up to the expectations that her electoral gamble and huge victory have created, Ms Takaichi needs to think bigger and broader. She cannot treat her time in office as routine, focused on short-term relief to ease the pain of today; she must take Japan’s long-term demographic and economic challenges head on. She should also recognise that her country has a crucial role to play as a stabilising force in a turbulent world. And she must be a leader for all of Japan, not only for her right-wing loyalists. She must, in short, gamble all over again.

She has the backing. Support for Ms Takaichi came from across the country. The LDP secured 316 seats in the 465-seat lower house, up from 198, giving it a two-thirds supermajority, which will allow it to override an upper house it does not control. Ms Takaichi tapped into Japanese voters’ desires for both security and change. She offered hard-nosed realism for a hard-edged era. She also personifies a break with the old guard. She is the plain-speaking child of a middle-class family, not the buttoned-up scion of a political dynasty, like many of her predecessors. And she is a woman, the first to lead democratic Japan.

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Japan’s prime minister has earned a once-in-a-generation chance to remake her country. Will she seize it? https://t.co/ywtiNsPrWq

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) February 12, 2026

The line from Thucydides, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”, is getting quite the airing of late. You are meant to nod gravely along to it, as though it expresses a bitter but universal truth about international relations.

Does it, though? The phrase implies that a country becomes more aggressive as it grows more powerful. Well, the US was never mightier than it was around the time of Trump’s birth in 1946, when it made half of the manufactured goods in the world and had a nuclear monopoly too. With all this power, the US didn’t “do what it could” to the weak. Instead, it set up the Marshall Plan and Nato, those masterpieces of enlightened self-interest. It rebuilt Japan and Germany as pacifist democracies. The belligerent turn in American behaviour has in fact come during its relative decline.

Leadership explains some of this, in that Harry Truman was “better” than Trump, but only some. The rest is structural. It is easier for a nation to be magnanimous from a great height. Paranoia and aggression set in when that position slips. As such, we should expect a volatile US until it gets used to the role of being a, not the, superpower. Britain and France got there in the end, despite having to fall much further.

No one ever quotes the other bit of the famous Dylan Thomas poem about decline. After nagging the reader to “rage against the dying of the light”, he concedes that giving up makes more sense: “wise men at their end know dark is right.”

Read it all (subscription).

Always beware a declining superpower – https://t.co/4Xah6qhSiO via @FT
Like a wounded tiger, always most dangerous in that state

— Marshall Auerback (@Mauerback) January 21, 2026

Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

Read it all.

‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

Chinese researchers have developed a form of hybrid rice that can replicate itself through seeds that are clones, preserving high-yield traits generation after generation, according to the development team. The scientists say their breakthrough could transform global agriculture by dismantling the biggest barrier to hybrid rice production: the need for farmers to buy expensive new hybrid seeds every season.

As hundreds of millions of people around the world face acute food insecurity, hybrid rice has promised dramatically higher yields: nearly four times more in parts of Africa compared to traditional varieties. If all rice farmers could plant the new hybrid variant, the world’s rice production could double, according to some industry estimates.

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China creates world’s first clone-hybrid rice that could double global output

Team developed 6 apomictic rice varieties tested over multiple generations in Hainan and Zhejiang provinceshttps://t.co/pPPqMIDlYQ

— Shehzad Younis شہزاد یونس (@shehzadyounis) January 7, 2026

Christians are celebrating the feast day of Epiphany, also known as Three Kings Day. It recalls the visit of the three kings, or magi, to the baby Jesus. Orthodox Christians focus on the baptism of Jesus by John the Baptist.

In Europe, some worshippers bathe in icy lakes and rivers. Ceremonies this year in Greece highlighted water scarcity concerns. Children in Latin America traditionally unwrap holiday gifts.

Read it all.

This is how children in Europe celebrate the Feast of the Three Kings, also known as Epiphany.

Image: Franz Lackner pic.twitter.com/7lYhlJW8Wm

— Sachin Jose (@Sachinettiyil) January 7, 2025

In 2016, Beijing launched a new aerospace conglomerate called Aero Engine Corp. of China. It had a challenging mandate: to develop top-line aircraft engines, a technology China had long struggled to master.

Less than a decade later, Beijing’s newest stealth fighters are entering service with what officials call “Chinese hearts,” or indigenously made engines.

The progress marked a milestone in China’s quest to forge an arms industry worthy of a rising global power. For years, China’s rise obscured a sobering reality: It couldn’t make all its own weapons.

Beijing is now not only producing its own armaments, it is also selling more abroad. In some military technologies, China appears to be matching major arms producers such as Russia and the U.S., or even pulling ahead.

The ability to churn out advanced armaments is a key element in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s vision of making his country less reliant on the outside world for everything from food and energy to semiconductors. A more self-sufficient China is essential for preventing Western nations from locking it into a strategic stranglehold, Xi has argued.

Read it all.

How Beijing Built Arms Industry to Rival the West—New jet engines show results of China’s military self-sufficiency push@ByChunHan https://t.co/KKed5vXiO0https://t.co/KKed5vXiO0

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) December 22, 2025

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

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3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliatehttps://t.co/HfAjRZka0C

— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) December 14, 2025

Chinese intelligence is continuing a massive hack of US telecom networks in a cyber campaign that allows it to access the communications of almost every American, according to a top Democratic senator. Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee who recently got a briefing on the extensive cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon”, said China was still infiltrating the US system.

“I believe they are still inside [our networks],” Warner told a Defense Writers Group event. Warner said he received a “really frustrating” government briefing with conflicting accounts about the Trump administration’s response to Salt Typhoon. According to the senator, the FBI said US networks were “pretty clean” despite contradictory evidence from several intelligence agencies.

“Other parts of our community are saying, ‘Hell no, it’s still going on’,” said Warner, who added that he had eight documents from agencies raising concerns about Salt Typhoon which has been ongoing for at least two years. “It is baffling to me that this is not a bigger issue,” said Warner, who lamented that it might take some kind of “catastrophic event” before the US government became more serious about tackling Salt Typhoon.

Read it all.

US has failed to stop massive Chinese cyber campaign, warns senator https://t.co/XvpxOYEqVp

— Financial Times (@FT) December 12, 2025

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

Read it all.

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo have shown the constraints of President Trump’s high-speed pursuit of peace https://t.co/k8gpJmlUyI

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 11, 2025

The arid steppes of northeastern Syria stretch almost uninterrupted to the Iraqi border, the emptiness broken only by the occasional oil derrick, until the road comes to a sprawling prison camp.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire surrounds the vast compound, and supply trucks line the route for more than half a mile outside the camp’s gates. This is Al Hol detention camp, where most detainees are family members — wives, sisters, children — of fighters for the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS. More than 8,000 fighters themselves are in prisons nearby.

For years, ISIS ruled large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq, brutally enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. As Kurdish-led Syrian forces backed by the United States battled to reclaim that land, they detained thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their relatives.

U.S. forces entrusted their Syrian Kurdish allies with guarding the ISIS detainees and families. But now, the Pentagon is drawing down its troops in Syria, and there are indications that U.S. officials want Syria’s new government to take responsibility for the prisons and detention camps.

Read it all.

Islamic State Camps Pose a Dangerous Problem for Syria’s Leaders

The government faces a dilemma over what to do with civil-war-era prisons and detention camps that hold thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their family members.https://t.co/T2y5KLVeaN

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) December 10, 2025

Japan is sailing dangerously close to the wind. The most indebted state in the world is taunting markets with one of the least justifiable plans for extra debt issuance.

The fiscal irresponsibility is perhaps no worse than in America, France or Labour’s welfare Britain, but right now it is Japan that is in the sights of the bond vigilantes.

Yields on Japanese debt have spiked wildly across the maturity curve since Sanae Takaichi took power six weeks ago and shocked investors with a “low quality” fiscal expansion of $135bn (£101bn), including such gems as rice vouchers and subsidies for fossil fuels – ploys to mask the inflationary consequences of her own policies.

The scale of this populist misadventure is sending tremors through the international financial system, as well as horrifying the economic establishment in Tokyo.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped to 1.94pc in intraday trading in Tokyo, up from 1.79pc a week ago and a whisker shy of highs last seen in 1997. The speed of the move in the once-glacial $12tn market for Japanese public and private debt is almost frightening.

Read it all.

Japan’s false Thatcher is blowing up a $12tn bond market https://t.co/gLGSs085PM

— B2Investor (@B2Investor) December 5, 2025

Europe is now caught somewhere between war and peace.

In recent weeks, drones appearing mysteriously above airports and halting flights have made headlines. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.

Germany alone has three drone incursions a day on average—over military installations, defense-industry facilities and critical infrastructure points—according to a previously unreleased tally by German authorities.

Drones are part of an intensifying barrage that European leaders suspect Russia is directing at the continent over its support for Ukraine. It includes sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

“We are not at war” with Russia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said recently, “but we are no longer at peace either.”

For Russia and the West’s other adversaries, including China, Iran and North Korea, small-scale action can yield big payoffs. Moscow is bogged down militarily in Ukraine and so would struggle to engage members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in conventional combat. Instead, malicious activities that are often dubbed hybrid war or gray-zone conflict let the Kremlin challenge its adversaries without overt hostilities.

Read it all.

Michael Claesson, Sweden’s chief of defence staff, told the Financial Times that Russia was combining "sabotage, special operations, even attacks against individuals" with attacks on critical infrastructure and "exploiting vulnerabilities in the information environment" in order… pic.twitter.com/Qtlm7vvZum

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 23, 2025

The lack of progress from governments at the COP30 climate talks in Brazil has left vulnerable communities at risk, Christian observers attending the summit have warned. As the talks came to a close on Friday, they called for renewed efforts, outside the formal UN process, to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels.

Climate campaigners have criticised wealthy countries for failing to deliver adequate financial support to help vulnerable countries with comparatively low emissions to adapt to climate change, and to fund the energy transition away from fossil fuels.

With low levels of finance on the table, Saudi Arabia and other fossil-fuel producing countries were able to block agreement on a road map (supported by dozens of countries, including the UK) to move away from coal, oil, and gas. A plan to produce a road map was eventually proposed informally by the Brazilian COP President, André Corrêa do Lago, and will be picked up at a separate conference to be hosted next year by Colombia and the Netherlands.

Patricia Mungcal, of the National Council of Churches in the Philippines, said that a concrete plan to move away from fossil fuels would have been COP30’s “gift to humankind”. She praised the countries which had fought for its inclusion, including the Colombian delegates who had delayed the final plenary for more than two hours in protest.

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The lack of progress from governments at the COP30 climate talks in Brazil has left vulnerable communities at risk, Christian observers attending the summit have warned#climatechange #cop30 #brazil https://t.co/kFw3KxfioX

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) November 24, 2025

President Donald Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

“TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A.,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

The ad in question comprises excerpts from an address Reagan gave in 1987 in which he defended the principles of free trade and slammed tariffs as an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices and hurts US workers.

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"Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad" via @dwallbank , @decloet and Hadriana Lowenkronhttps://t.co/VygvQUuiEg

— Stephanie Hughes (@StephHughes95) October 24, 2025

It is….increasingly likely that governments will…resort to inflation and financial repression to reduce the real value of their high debts, as they did in the decades after the second world war. The machinery for such a strategy is in place at central banks, which have a large footprint in bond markets. Already, populists such as Mr Trump and Nigel Farage in Britain attack their country’s central banks with proposals that would weaken the defenses against inflation.

Price rises are unpopular—just ask the hapless Joe Biden—but they do not need political support to get going. Nobody voted for them in the 1970s or in 2022. When governments cannot get their act together, and run economic policies that are unsustainable, bouts of inflation just happen. By the time markets wake up, it is too late.

All the more reason to think ahead and reflect on how inflation harms the economy and society. It redistributes wealth unfairly: from creditors to debtors; from those with cash and bonds to those who own real assets such as houses; and from those who agree on contracts and wages in cash terms to those wily enough to anticipate higher prices. It causes what John Maynard Keynes called an “arbitrary rearrangement of riches”. And that could happen just as societies are grappling with other transfers of wealth that the losers will also see as unfair: in the labour market, as AI takes on routine office work; and through inheritance, as baby-boomers bequeath vast property wealth to those lucky enough to have the right parents.

This multi-pronged upheaval of fortunes could wreck the middle class, which binds democracies together, and scramble the social contract.

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Governments are living far beyond their means. Sadly, inflation is the most likely escape. Politicians should think ahead and reflect on how much harm that would do https://t.co/6H1nzpKQQS pic.twitter.com/RF2ACF0MzV

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 16, 2025

So here’s what we know. This year’s gold rally has come in fits and starts. The April move was about a loss of confidence in the Dollar, a move that’s since run out of steam. The move since Jackson Hole is about “global debasement” and coincides with three notable developments: (i) there’s a global rise in long-term government bond yields as markets increasingly worry about unsustainable fiscal policy in many places; (ii) the universe of safe haven countries has shrunk because Germany and Japan are at the forefront of the global rise in yields; and (iii) the few safe haven countries that remain – notably Switzerland – are small, with limited capacity to absorb safe haven inflows. These three forces are supercharging the rise in gold prices, which is really about the global deterioration in fiscal sustainability and growing risk that debt overhangs will be inflated away.

What we don’t know is who is driving the latest rise in gold prices. There’s endless rumors about another round of central bank buying, but I am skeptical. There’s a clear macro catalyst to the latest move in the form of Jackson Hole. I find it hard to believe that central banks in emerging markets will be trading such a catalyst. It’s more likely that this is a genuine market move, with a growing number of investors worried about fiscal sustainability and debasement. If that’s true, the gold move can go a lot further.

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What's driving the crazy rise in gold prices? At its root, it's about fear that the Fed has capitulated to Trump and is easing into an economy where inflation is rising. This week's IMF/WB meetings may end the gold rally and replace it with a Dollar rally.https://t.co/fFtYIbm3tT pic.twitter.com/HhhBK2vISo

— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) October 16, 2025

The American stockmarket has see-sawed lately amid a flare-up in trade tensions, but remains near its all-time high. The surge, fuelled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, has drawn comparisons to the exuberance of the late 1990s that culminated in the dotcom crash of 2000. Though technological innovation is undeniably reshaping industries and increasing productivity, there are good reasons to worry that the current rally may be setting the stage for another painful market correction. The consequences of such a crash, however, could be far more severe and global in scope than those felt a quarter of a century ago.

At the heart of this concern is the sheer scale of exposure, both domestic and international, to American equities. Over the past decade and a half, American households have significantly increased their holdings in the stockmarket, encouraged by strong returns and the dominance of American tech firms. Foreign investors, particularly from Europe, have for the same reasons poured capital into American stocks, while simultaneously benefiting from the dollar’s strength. This growing interconnectedness means that any sharp downturn in American markets will reverberate around the world.

To put the potential impact in perspective, I calculate that a market correction of the same magnitude as the dotcom crash could wipe out over $20trn in wealth for American households, equivalent to roughly 70% of American GDP in 2024. This is several times larger than the losses incurred during the crash of the early 2000s. The implications for consumption would be grave. Consumption growth is already weaker than it was preceding the dotcom crash. A shock of this magnitude could cut it by 3.5 percentage points, translating into a two-percentage-point hit to overall GDP growth, even before accounting for declines in investment.

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The exposure of the world to US equities is at record levels. A stock market correction would have more severe and global consequences as compared to what followed the dot-com crash. The tariff wars and lack of fiscal space compounds the problem. The underlying problem is not… pic.twitter.com/LFaN4mNgqn

— Gita Gopinath (@GitaGopinath) October 15, 2025