Category : Globalization

(NYT) Dwight Garner reviews Annie Jacobsen’s new book “Biological War: A Scenario”

“Biological War” is a heavily researched book about contagious and potentially civilization-ending pathogens. Though banned by international treaty, these germs have been weaponized and hoarded by countries that include Russia, North Korea and Syria.

By “weaponized” I don’t mean merely that they’ve been placed at the business end of ballistic missiles. I mean that these pathogens have been genetically engineered, in diabolical ways, to trick first responders and be all but untreatable. Even a small accidental spill, like wine sloshing out of glass, like Covid slipping out of a lab, could be the last mistake our species makes.

Jacobsen has interviewed everyone, from former high-ranking members of the military, the C.I.A., FEMA and NATO to former secretaries of defense, counterterrorism experts, epidemiologists and Sam [expletive] Altman. That so many were willing to talk to her, and have their names affixed to this book, indicates the esteem in which she is held, especially after the publication of “Nuclear War: A Scenario” (2024), a best seller that stirred new interest in nuclear policy, technology and risks worldwide.

The reason “Biological War,” like Jacobsen’s previous book, is so consuming is that she packs a lot of dense and particulate information into a ticking-clock scenario: into a story. It’s more pulverizing than a Kathryn Bigelow movie. Some of the chapter headings are phrases like “Day Two” or “Day Three.” Not to ruin your mood, but “Day Six” is about as far as civilization gets. A later chapter is titled “The Last Day of American Democracy.”

Read it all.

Posted in Books, Eschatology, Globalization, Health & Medicine, Science & Technology

(Economist leader) AI Is advancing faster than its creators can control 

Artificial Intelligence poses a double challenge to the human mind. Not only will the most advanced models soon be able to think better than people, but AI has consequences for humanity which are so uncertain, so potentially vast and are approaching at such a rapid pace that even the best brains flinch. An example is Elon Musk.

In our long interview with him this week, featured in The Insider and our Business section, the engineer and entrepreneur sets out two paradoxes and one contradiction. The first paradox is that one of the world’s most power-hungry tycoons is enthusiastically helping create a technology that he says will render him—and all other human beings—powerless after as little as five years. The second is that the world’s richest man says he is preparing for a world of infinite abundance, where money, including his $750bn fortune, no longer matters. And the contradiction is that, despite these stated beliefs, Mr Musk continues to act as if they were not true.

Mr Musk is divisive. His political views, disseminated to his 240m followers on X, strike many as plain-speaking and strike many more, including The Economist, as plainly bigoted. By his own admission, his attempt to use DOGE to scythe through the federal bureaucracy went wrong.

But he is also one of a handful of men who are pioneering AI and who thereby have an outsize influence on its trajectory. When he speaks, he reflects the debates they are having. His data centres in space could power AI’s future. For all his political polemics, he has a record of being right about technology in fields such as electric cars, rockets and satellite communications that confounded other engineers and entrepreneurs. For those reasons, his claims about AI repay examination. Unfortunately, such an exercise only underlines how ill-prepared the world is for a technology that may soon throw everything up in the air.

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, Corporations/Corporate Life, Globalization, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(Telegraph) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard–Beware the rising energy dangers of Trump’s Gulf war

The price of crude oil is a broken barometer. Acute pain in the world energy market has switched to the trio of refined products that we actually consume: diesel, petrol and jet fuel.

The IATA jet fuel index for global airlines has hit $154 a barrel in Europe and $149 in North America, almost double the cost of underlying crude. In trade parlance, the “crack spread” has gone mad. It is arguably worse for diesel. The spread over crude has reached $80 in Rotterdam and $88 in New York, the highest since records began. The whole global market is seizing up.

“I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched,” said Jeff Currie, perhaps the world’s best-known oil guru. We have been lulled into complacency by deceptively moderate oil headlines and by assumptions that the Iran war has settled into a low-intensity management problem. It is nothing of the sort.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Iran, President Donald Trump

(FA) The Coming Clash Between China and Europe

In 2025, Chinese leader Xi Jinping tried to capitalize on U.S. belligerence toward Europe by promoting China as the responsible great-power alternative. In a message sent to mark the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union, Xi invited Brussels to join forces with Beijing, to “uphold multilateralism, safeguard fairness and justice,” and “oppose unilateralism and bullying.” Despite the lofty rhetoric, Beijing offered nothing of substance to Europeans, and did nothing to address their concerns about unfair trade practices that are threatening large swaths of European industry. Indeed, rather than seeking to conciliate, Chinese premier Li Qiang recently dismissed the concerns of Europeans worried about a “China Shock 2.0,” telling them to focus instead on “China Opportunity 2.0.”

Key EU leaders, as well as the Brussels bureaucracy, are not buying it. They have concluded that the very survival of Europe’s core industries is threatened by China. The first “China shock” describes the devastation of U.S. industry in sectors including furniture, textiles, and metals that came in the early 2000s, after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. The new China shock will be different. It will happen mainly in Europe, and it will be more severe, devastating advanced industrial sectors—including automotive, machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and green energy—and leading to immense job losses.

Increasingly, European leaders are arguing that the EU needs to take action to protect its industries. So severe is the threat that measures that were unthinkable a few years ago are now gaining momentum. Earlier this year, for example, the French government proposed “establishing a level of protection equivalent to a general tariff of around 30 percent vis-à-vis China.” And although Germany was initially hesitant, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signaled that he is ready to act to deal with China’s unfair trade practices. Last month, every EU leader, with the exception of Spain, tasked the European Commission with coming up with options for action. An all-out trade war with China is becoming a real possibility.

Read it all.

Posted in China, Europe, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General

(NYT) Spain Rejoices and Argentina Weeps as 2026 World Cup Ends

The United States hosted the World Cup final on Sunday with the world watching — though perhaps nowhere more intensely than in Spain and Argentina, whose teams faced off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

Emotions ran high from Rosario, Argentina — the hometown of the superstar Lionel Messi — to Madrid, where white knuckles turned to fist pumps as the game wound down and Spain prevailed, dethroning the 2022 champions, 1-0, in extra time.

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Posted in Argentina, Globalization, Spain, Sports

(NYT) One more game for Lionel Messi as beaming, bouncing Argentina rises up for its football god

As was the case against Switzerland in the quarter-final, Messi’s name was not up in lights. After scoring in nine consecutive World Cup games, he is, by his standards, in the midst of a drought. And yet he continues to leave a mark. In the absence of Angel Di Maria, who is retired from international duty, Messi drifts to the right, the space his old teammate used to occupy, the space Messi first played in as a kid coming through La Masia. He may no longer have the same ability to go at defenders over-and-over again. Not after playing extra-time in two of Argentina’s three knockout games before this. And yet it doesn’t matter. His aura still attracts defenders who, in turn, then leave his teammates wide open just as Fernandez was for his sensationally-hit equaliser.

Fernandez has stepped up just as he did four years ago. He headed in the clincher in Argentina’s comeback against Egypt. Then, in stoppage time, Messi crossed for Lautaro Martinez’s winner against England. Lautaro deserves to be more than an impact sub for the Albiceleste. Nevertheless he has performed the role brilliantly for Argentina since the knockouts began. He was the one who placed the ball on Fernandez’s head against Egypt. He was the one who wrapped things up in extra-time against Switzerland and, after the England game, he could barely get his words out. Each one tripping up over the emotion.

As happened four years ago, Argentina look into the abyss and see what no one else sees. They find light instead of darkness. Qualification rather than elimination. The English fans dressed as knights who threw up their swords when Anthony Gordon gave their team the lead vaporised like those in Raiders of the Lost Ark at full-time. Victoria Beckham comforted Sir David, her husband, the Inter Miami co-owner, the man who brought Messi to America. In the same area, Mick Jagger also looked on as Argentina’s street fighting men moved on.

How do Argentina keep doing it? They continue to go to the well and it is never empty. How long they’ve played this summer never seems to matter. How far they’ve travelled always, inexplicably, counts for little. They draw on reserves most oil-rich countries must envy. Energy is always found in one place deep down inside; it’s derived from giving Messi one more game. Another 90 minutes.

When every game feels like it might be his last the Argentina players make a sacrifice for their football god. They commit bodies to the cause. “We are unique,” Scaloni said. “And it’s not arrogance, it’s heart.”

Read it all.

Posted in Argentina, England / UK, Globalization, History, Sports

(Economist Cover) The AI backlash is only getting started

Yet this backlash is itself dangerous. AI promises to change the world for the better, much as electricity or the steam engine did. Not long ago, the era-defining problem for the rich world was stagnant economic growth and the populism it unleashed. Now it has a technology that could power a surge in productivity and incomes, help find cures for untreatable diseases and improve everything from education to green tech.

All this could be lost if countries starve the technology of computing power or regulate it into uselessness. Look at mRNA vaccines research, which has been held back after a backlash during the covid-19 pandemic.

Scenarios in which some countries give in to popular rage but others forge ahead are also worrying. If America succumbs, it could cede the global ai frontier, and the attendant cyber and military capabilities, to authoritarian China. Europe and Canada are more risk-averse than America. If they choked off AI while the rest of the world kept pushing forward, their losses could be unrecoverable. More than two centuries after the Industrial Revolution, few countries have managed to catch up with the first movers.

So the stakes are high. Can governments do anything about it? Grand proclamations about the shape of a “social contract” for a post-AI world are good fodder for blog posts but offer little help today. Besides, the unknowns are still large enough to make the exercise almost futile.

Better to be incremental. 

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Globalization, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(Economist Leader) AI has granted America vast new power

The news is full of how an ignominious peace deal with Iran exemplifies a decline in American power. That conclusion could hardly be more wrong. On June 12th the Trump administration ordered Anthropic to block foreigners from Fable and Mythos, its latest and most capable frontier AI models. In an instant, everyone learned that the American government can decide who may use the world’s most important technology. You don’t get much more powerful than that.

The administration was responding to a supposed jailbreak for Fable, meaning a prompt that circumvents defences against uses such as hacking computers or making bioweapons. The chances are that it wanted Anthropic to switch off the models for everyone, and that targeting foreigners was a means to an end. Sure enough, that is what Anthropic did, while claiming that the concern about its model was overblown. The legal basis of the order remains unclear, and the ban seems unlikely to last.

What matters, though, is the demonstration that global access to the best AI may come down to a decision in the Oval Office. The administration showed in March that it is prepared to trample on the frontier AI companies, when it designated Anthropic a “supply-chain risk”. Now it has shown that it is prepared to trample on users, too.

America must decide how to wield this vast new power. The rest of the world must decide what to do about it. Even as it plans for an unreliable America in everything from defence to trade, it now has to cope with a new way of being captive to the world’s biggest economy.

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Globalization, History, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(Economist Cover) How to fight back against Gen-Z socialism

Something new is stirring on the left. A fresh crop of socialists want to remake the economy with price controls, hefty wealth taxes and a spree of nationalisations. Supercharged by fury over Gaza, they are winning voters at a formidable pace. Many rose to prominence only recently, like Zack Polanski, who leads the Green Party in Britain, or Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York. Others are long-standing political fixtures: the septuagenarian Jean-Luc Mélenchon is on his fourth swing at the French presidency, but thumping support from the 20-somethings of “Generation Z” has put the Elysée back in his sights again.

Call it Gen-Z socialism. Not because all its adherents are young—or because it is new for young people to lean leftward—but because it is the brand of leftism, made for the TikTok era, that today’s young revolutionaries support.

Forget weighty collectivist ideals or seizing the means of production. Gen-Z socialism is a me-first doctrine. Climate change and race, preoccupations of the 2010s and early 2020s, are now much more peripheral concerns. So are social issues, barring Gaza. Angst about inflation, housing and artificial intelligence have replaced all that with something cruder. “This country is awash in wealth,” says Avi Lewis, freshly elected leader of the New Democratic Party in Canada, a country where productivity has been all but flat for a decade. “We can have nice things.” Saying that prices should be capped to keep your bills down while someone else pays for your public services is a seductive, shareable message.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Globalization

(Economist Cover) Smart tech is making war a dumber choice

Bullets and bombs killed nearly three-quarters of a million people in wars between 2021 and 2024. Many more died from the indirect effects of conflict, such as hunger and disease. Combat deaths in the past four years have been the highest since the end of the cold war. And for what purpose? Not even the leaders who started recent wars can be pleased with the results. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a humiliating quagmire for Vladimir Putin. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran has gone badly awry. These two wars of choice exemplify two new battlefield truths. Technology has made it harder for any army to advance on the ground. It has also made it easier for weaker powers, when attacked by stronger ones, to cause havoc.

In a valedictory essay this week, The Economist’s defence editor reflects on how war has changed over the past decade and how it might evolve in the future. The first big shift is that soldiers are more exposed on the battlefield. Sensors and satellites can see them; small, cheap drones can kill them. Armies have to work harder than before to hide, move and survive. Ukraine’s expanding front-line “kill zone”, where soldiers move in small groups and ground robots evacuate casualties and deliver supplies, embodies this shift.

Technology quickly spreads. Israeli soldiers in Lebanon now face the same kind of drones that were pioneered in Ukraine. Iranian missiles are far more accurate than the Iraqi Scuds fired during the first Gulf war. Were China to attempt to invade Taiwan, its landing forces would be met with a blizzard of drones. Air superiority is now harder to achieve and buys soldiers less protection than before, thanks to the new drone-saturated layer of airspace.

Some experts draw the lesson that manoeuvre—attacking an enemy’s soft spots through shock and rapid movement—is no longer possible. But war is a Darwinian environment, driving constant adaptation, and the battlefield is never frozen for long….

Read it all.

Posted in Defense, National Security, Military, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Science & Technology

(NYT) At the Epicenter of A.I., Pope Leo’s Warnings Are Dismissed

Many of the founders and important researchers at Anthropic and OpenAI joined the earliest gatherings at A.G.I. House. Mr. [Jeremy] Nixon is now founder and chief executive of a start-up called the Infinity Artificial Intelligence Institute, which is trying to automate the creation of A.I.

Mr. Nixon said he has met a generation of scientists who shunned traditional religion in favor of technology. After growing up with books like “The God Delusion” — in which the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins painted God as a false belief contradicted by empirical evidence — he and his peers saw A.I. as an alternative that was more real and far more powerful.

A.I. has started to crack math problems that humans struggled with for decades, he said, and it will soon cure diseases in the same way. “Practically speaking, it will achieve the outcomes that many religions claim their deities would be able to achieve,” he said.

This is an increasingly common belief among researchers in Silicon Valley. They insist they are on their way to building a more powerful species — or even a new God.

Read it all.

Posted in * Culture-Watch, Anthropology, Ethics / Moral Theology, Globalization, Roman Catholic, Science & Technology

(WSJ Houses of Worship) Robert Orlando–The Gospel According to Karl Marx

As the historian Leszek Kołakowski observed, Marxism functioned for many as “the greatest fantasy of our century”—a promise that history itself would bring final justice.

G.K. Chesterton captured the problem: Marx simply replaces one abstraction with another. But abstractions such as “historical inevitability” can’t produce justice on their own, because justice depends on the moral character of the persons who act within those systems.

The deep question for our own moment is whether modern politics can resist the temptation to which Marxists surrender. Every generation is drawn to the hope that history itself will resolve its deepest conflicts. Marx gave that hope its most powerful modern expression by translating theological categories into the language of political economy. But as Eric Voegelin once warned, attempts to “immanentize the eschaton”—to force heaven into history—have repeatedly produced political disasters.

Marx didn’t abolish the Christian structure of redemption. He relocated it within history—and that relocation continues to shape the political imagination of the modern world.

Read it all.

Posted in Anthropology, Atheism, Ethics / Moral Theology, Germany, Globalization, History, Other Faiths, Religion & Culture, Russia, Secularism, Theology

(AAC) Beyond Canterbury: Oxford Conversations on the Future of Global Anglicanism

In this episode of the Anglican Perspective Podcast, Canon Mark Eldredge sits down in Oxford, England with Susie Leafe, Director of Anglican Futures UK, for a thoughtful conversation on the future of global Anglicanism in the wake of recent developments across the Communion. Together, they discuss the installation of the new Archbishop of Canterbury, the response of Gafcon and Global South leaders, the growing realignment within worldwide Anglicanism, and the challenges facing faithful Anglicans in England and Wales. Recorded near the historic Oxford Martyrs’ Memorial, this episode reflects on what it means to remain rooted in biblical faithfulness during a time of institutional uncertainty, while also offering hope for renewal, clarity, and Gospel witness in the years ahead.

Listen here

Posted in * Anglican - Episcopal, - Anglican: Analysis, Globalization, Religion & Culture

(NYT) Catastrophe Is Emerging in the World’s Most Vulnerable Places

For nine days, they trudged across the parched soil of southern Somalia, taking turns carrying their 3-year-old daughter on their shoulders. Abdullahi Abdi Abdirahman, his wife and their seven children sought escape from a landscape drained of life.

Another drought had killed their goats and sheep, turning their life savings to dust. So they pressed on for 140 miles toward Dollow, a dusty outpost on the Ethiopian border. They were drawn by the same things that had already attracted more than 100,000 other people: International relief organizations were clustered there, offering food, water and health care.

Yet when they arrived in late January at a camp on the fringes of town, they were horrified to learn that aid groups had abandoned the area. President Trump had dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, or U.S.A.I.D., eliminating Somalia’s primary source of assistance. From London to Berlin, governments had reduced funding for humanitarian aid. Relief organizations had been forced to choose where to focus their remaining money.

Dollow had not made the cut. Inside the camps, thousands of tents remained, but aid was disappearing. Families were losing cash grants for food. Health clinics were bereft of medicines and staff.

Read it all.

Posted in Dieting/Food/Nutrition, Globalization, Iran, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Poverty, Somalia

(FT) Israeli military doubts war will topple Iranian regime

The Israeli military is increasingly sceptical that regime change in Iran will be possible in the coming weeks, casting doubt on one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s core war aims as the Islamic republic shows its ability to endure intense bombardment.

Two people familiar with the matter said the prevailing view within military intelligence was that the war had not created the conditions for ousting the Islamic regime in the near future. One of them, who is familiar with briefings from the Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence directorate Aman, said it appeared that the aerial campaign had yet to measurably erode the Iranian regime’s hold on power since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28.

Both people spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the evolving thinking within the IDF, rather than an official assessment.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Globalization, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

The pastor’s heart from GC 26 in Nigeria–How to Reorder a Communion? Bible First, Structures Second

The future shape of the Global Anglican Communion is being debated this week in Abuja, Nigeria. At the GAFCON conference, more than 400 bishops and global leaders are working through the logic of the proposal that could lead to a new Global Anglican Communion — a fellowship grounded in the authority of Scripture and historic Anglican doctrine.

On Day 2 of the conference, Dominic Steele speaks with key leaders including Vaughan Roberts (Oxford), Julian Dobbs (ACNA), and Richard Condie (Tasmania), along with presenters from Uganda, Brazil and Nigeria.

They discuss: • The implications of the Church of England’s current trajectory • The logic behind a reordered global communion

• The mission opportunity for global Anglicans • What this could mean for churches in the UK, North America and Australia

Watch and listen to it all.

Posted in Anglican Church in North America (ACNA), Anglican Church of Australia, Anthropology, Church of England, Ethics / Moral Theology, GAFCON, Global South Churches & Primates, Globalization, Nigeria, Pastoral Theology, Theology

(Bloomberg) Iran War Oil Shock Threatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come….

Read it all.

Posted in Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Globalization, Iran, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, President Donald Trump

The ISW Iran War Update as of Tuesday Evening March 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

  1. The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.  The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.
  2. The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3, including the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran, as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution. Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran. 
  3. Iranian leaders have devolved powers to lower-level officials in response to the combined force’s strikes targeting senior officials and central decision-making institutions, likely to ensure continued state functions despite disruptions to central Iranian leadership.
  4. The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.
  5. Iran continued to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US forces and sites in Gulf countries, which has prompted two US embassies to close.
  6. The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

Read it all.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Iran, Israel, Military / Armed Forces

(Economist Cover Story) America’s dangerous pursuit of critical-mineral dominance

In 1973 a club of Arab petrostates held the world to ransom by halting crude-oil exports to countries they accused of supporting Israel. Petrol prices soared; Western economies buckled. Today the danger is that China will use its grip on other natural resources to achieve its aims, such as seizing Taiwan. It has already shown its power by choking off exports of rare-earth metals last year. That is why America is staging its biggest intervention in commodity markets in decades.

The battleground is the supply of “critical” metals, a group of minerals vital to making military, electrical and computing infrastructure—everything modern economies need to be safe, high-tech and green. China supplies most of these: it mines about 80% of the world’s tungsten, for instance, and refines 99% of its gallium. This is spurring America into an all-out campaign to diversify its sourcing of 60 minerals. It has pledged billions of dollars to dozens of mining projects at home and abroad, floated plans to create price floors and trade blocs, and announced a vast stockpile to cover months of national needs. The risk now is that America depends too much on its scattershot efforts—and that, in seeking control, it breaks the flexible and resilient system of market incentives that ensures the smooth functioning of the global economy.

China’s grip on critical minerals has exposed the West’s most serious strategic weakness in many years. Last April, during its trade war with America, China restricted exports of seven crucial rare earths; it targeted another five in October. Nearly a third of Pentagon procurement programmes faced the risk of shortages, as did industries from carmaking to renewable energy. The prospect of large-scale disruption prodded President Donald Trump into a trade truce with Xi Jinping, as well as a relaxation of American controls on some technology exports. Yet Mr Xi can deploy the weapon again whenever he chooses. Meanwhile, exports of rare earths for dual-use applications—the expanding grey zone between military and civilian uses—remain largely barred, sapping Western efforts to rearm….

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., China, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Globalization

(FT) Donald Trump’s new flat-rate tariff is a boost for China and Brazil and hits US allies including UK, EU and Japan the hardest

Donald Trump’s new 15 per cent global tariff will most greatly benefit countries he has singled out for heavy criticism, including China and Brazil, data analysis shows.

An examination of the new regime by independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert found that Brazil will enjoy the biggest reduction in average tariff rates — falling by 13.6 percentage points — followed by China, with a 7.1 percentage point reduction.

Long-standing US allies including the UK, the EU and Japan will suffer the largest hit from the new levy, which the US president introduced after the Supreme Court ruled much of his previous trade policy unlawful on Friday.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Office of the President, President Donald Trump

(Economist Leader) Takaichi Sanae, Japan’s Prime minister, is the world’s most powerful woman

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics since its founding in 1955, ruling with only two brief interruptions. Never has it won as decisively as it did in a snap election on February 8th, when it took almost 70% of the seats in parliament’s powerful lower house. Takaichi Sanae, the triumphant prime minister, now has a historic chance to transform her country. She must not squander it.

To live up to the expectations that her electoral gamble and huge victory have created, Ms Takaichi needs to think bigger and broader. She cannot treat her time in office as routine, focused on short-term relief to ease the pain of today; she must take Japan’s long-term demographic and economic challenges head on. She should also recognise that her country has a crucial role to play as a stabilising force in a turbulent world. And she must be a leader for all of Japan, not only for her right-wing loyalists. She must, in short, gamble all over again.

She has the backing. Support for Ms Takaichi came from across the country. The LDP secured 316 seats in the 465-seat lower house, up from 198, giving it a two-thirds supermajority, which will allow it to override an upper house it does not control. Ms Takaichi tapped into Japanese voters’ desires for both security and change. She offered hard-nosed realism for a hard-edged era. She also personifies a break with the old guard. She is the plain-speaking child of a middle-class family, not the buttoned-up scion of a political dynasty, like many of her predecessors. And she is a woman, the first to lead democratic Japan.

Read it all.

Posted in Globalization, Japan, Politics in General

(FT) Janan Ganesh–Always beware a declining superpower

The line from Thucydides, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”, is getting quite the airing of late. You are meant to nod gravely along to it, as though it expresses a bitter but universal truth about international relations.

Does it, though? The phrase implies that a country becomes more aggressive as it grows more powerful. Well, the US was never mightier than it was around the time of Trump’s birth in 1946, when it made half of the manufactured goods in the world and had a nuclear monopoly too. With all this power, the US didn’t “do what it could” to the weak. Instead, it set up the Marshall Plan and Nato, those masterpieces of enlightened self-interest. It rebuilt Japan and Germany as pacifist democracies. The belligerent turn in American behaviour has in fact come during its relative decline.

Leadership explains some of this, in that Harry Truman was “better” than Trump, but only some. The rest is structural. It is easier for a nation to be magnanimous from a great height. Paranoia and aggression set in when that position slips. As such, we should expect a volatile US until it gets used to the role of being a, not the, superpower. Britain and France got there in the end, despite having to fall much further.

No one ever quotes the other bit of the famous Dylan Thomas poem about decline. After nagging the reader to “rage against the dying of the light”, he concedes that giving up makes more sense: “wise men at their end know dark is right.”

Read it all (subscription).

Posted in America/U.S.A., Globalization, History, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(WSJ) ‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran

Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

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Posted in Death / Burial / Funerals, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Iran, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Violence

(SCMP) China creates world’s first clone-hybrid rice that could double global output

Chinese researchers have developed a form of hybrid rice that can replicate itself through seeds that are clones, preserving high-yield traits generation after generation, according to the development team. The scientists say their breakthrough could transform global agriculture by dismantling the biggest barrier to hybrid rice production: the need for farmers to buy expensive new hybrid seeds every season.

As hundreds of millions of people around the world face acute food insecurity, hybrid rice has promised dramatically higher yields: nearly four times more in parts of Africa compared to traditional varieties. If all rice farmers could plant the new hybrid variant, the world’s rice production could double, according to some industry estimates.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, China, Globalization, Science & Technology

(AP) In pictures: Celebrations of Epiphany, also known as Three Kings Day, around the world

Christians are celebrating the feast day of Epiphany, also known as Three Kings Day. It recalls the visit of the three kings, or magi, to the baby Jesus. Orthodox Christians focus on the baptism of Jesus by John the Baptist.

In Europe, some worshippers bathe in icy lakes and rivers. Ceremonies this year in Greece highlighted water scarcity concerns. Children in Latin America traditionally unwrap holiday gifts.

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Posted in Epiphany, Globalization, Liturgy, Music, Worship, Other Churches, Photos/Photography

(WSJ) How China Built an Arms Industry to Rival the West

In 2016, Beijing launched a new aerospace conglomerate called Aero Engine Corp. of China. It had a challenging mandate: to develop top-line aircraft engines, a technology China had long struggled to master.

Less than a decade later, Beijing’s newest stealth fighters are entering service with what officials call “Chinese hearts,” or indigenously made engines.

The progress marked a milestone in China’s quest to forge an arms industry worthy of a rising global power. For years, China’s rise obscured a sobering reality: It couldn’t make all its own weapons.

Beijing is now not only producing its own armaments, it is also selling more abroad. In some military technologies, China appears to be matching major arms producers such as Russia and the U.S., or even pulling ahead.

The ability to churn out advanced armaments is a key element in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s vision of making his country less reliant on the outside world for everything from food and energy to semiconductors. A more self-sufficient China is essential for preventing Western nations from locking it into a strategic stranglehold, Xi has argued.

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Posted in China, Defense, National Security, Military, Globalization, Science & Technology

(NYT) 3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliate

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Death / Burial / Funerals, Defense, National Security, Military, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, Syria, Terrorism

(FT) US has failed to stop massive Chinese cyber campaign, warns senator

Chinese intelligence is continuing a massive hack of US telecom networks in a cyber campaign that allows it to access the communications of almost every American, according to a top Democratic senator. Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee who recently got a briefing on the extensive cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon”, said China was still infiltrating the US system.

“I believe they are still inside [our networks],” Warner told a Defense Writers Group event. Warner said he received a “really frustrating” government briefing with conflicting accounts about the Trump administration’s response to Salt Typhoon. According to the senator, the FBI said US networks were “pretty clean” despite contradictory evidence from several intelligence agencies.

“Other parts of our community are saying, ‘Hell no, it’s still going on’,” said Warner, who added that he had eight documents from agencies raising concerns about Salt Typhoon which has been ongoing for at least two years. “It is baffling to me that this is not a bigger issue,” said Warner, who lamented that it might take some kind of “catastrophic event” before the US government became more serious about tackling Salt Typhoon.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., China, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(WSJ) Crumbling Peace Deals Show Limits of Trump’s Approach to Ending Wars

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Cambodia, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Thailand

(NYT) Islamic State Camps Pose a Dangerous Problem for Syria’s Leaders

The arid steppes of northeastern Syria stretch almost uninterrupted to the Iraqi border, the emptiness broken only by the occasional oil derrick, until the road comes to a sprawling prison camp.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire surrounds the vast compound, and supply trucks line the route for more than half a mile outside the camp’s gates. This is Al Hol detention camp, where most detainees are family members — wives, sisters, children — of fighters for the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS. More than 8,000 fighters themselves are in prisons nearby.

For years, ISIS ruled large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq, brutally enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. As Kurdish-led Syrian forces backed by the United States battled to reclaim that land, they detained thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their relatives.

U.S. forces entrusted their Syrian Kurdish allies with guarding the ISIS detainees and families. But now, the Pentagon is drawing down its troops in Syria, and there are indications that U.S. officials want Syria’s new government to take responsibility for the prisons and detention camps.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General, Syria, Terrorism