Europe is breathing a sigh of relief. On December 2nd Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. Many had been expecting Team Trump to sell out Ukrainian sovereignty in return for commercial deals. The risk of such an odious stitch-up now seems to have receded a bit. Thanks to pressure from European leaders and some sensible Republicans, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, some of the worst elements of a 28-point plan hatched by Mr Witkoff and his Kremlin chum, Kirill Dmitriev, have quietly been dropped. Mr Putin seems unenthusiastic about the current version. Mr Trump now says the whole thing is “a mess”. Diplomacy, like the war, will grind on.

But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong. First, another bad pseudo-peace plan could pop up. Second, even if it doesn’t, Ukraine will need solid military and financial support for the foreseeable future, and it will have to come from Europe. It is still not clear that Europeans grasp this.

When Mr Putin first launched his full-scale, unprovoked invasion, Europe did the right thing. The EU and others imposed stiff sanctions on Russia and gave military and financial aid to Ukraine, roughly matching the level of support from America. But that united front depended on the White House agreeing that territorial aggression should not be rewarded. Mr Trump has blown that consensus apart. Now, the $90bn-100bn it costs each year to support Ukraine’s war effort, a burden previously divided evenly, must be shouldered by Europe alone. The maths is brutal, as we analysed earlier this year. Until a durable peace arrives, Europe must keep paying what it did before—and then find an extra $50bn a year.

Russia may be advancing on the battlefield, but only slowly and at a huge cost in men and money…

Read it all.

On Tuesday Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong https://t.co/LrJSfsETpF

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 3, 2025

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

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Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Washington’s latest peace efforts have jolted the trans-Atlantic alliance https://t.co/C3FLsf5mXm via @WSJ

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) December 2, 2025

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.

The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said. They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.

Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy came amid a fresh push by the US president to end Russia’s war following the ceasefire secured between Israel and Hamas. 

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Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia https://t.co/AdUz5KW72A via @ChristopherJM @HenryJFoy @maxseddon @ak_mack

— Valentina Pop (@valentinapop) October 19, 2025

Yaroslav Pavlivskiy waved his hands as he sprang from his car, pleading for mercy with the operator of a Russian drone circling overhead as he drove home from a market in the southern city of Kherson.

The operator flicked a switch to release a grenade, which exploded and tore into the legs of the 69-year-old pensioner. A passerby used a belt as a tourniquet to stop him from losing too much blood, saving his life.

In the hospital the next day, the doctor showed Pavlivskiy a Russian video of the incident, which was set to techno music and carried a caption: “A drone operator spotted another ‘civilian.’ After reconnaissance, the target was eliminated.”

Russian drone operators have turned daily life in Kherson into a terrifying gauntlet. A year ago, from the other side of the Dnipro River, they began sending drones, in addition to using bombs and artillery, to take potshots at civilians.

Now the attacks have intensified to such an extent that Ukrainian authorities, civilians and human-rights groups say it has become a systematic effort to keep people off the city’s streets under threat of execution from the skies.

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“There will be no more mercy.”

“No one deserves pity. Spare me your whining.”

Those are captions to videos of Russian drone operators attacking civilians in Kherson city and oblast.

Living in Kherson means risking execution from the sky.https://t.co/Otunmnekn8 (read free)

— Jane Lytvynenko (@JaneLytv) October 9, 2025

As of September 2025, Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years. Despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting, there remains no end in sight.

There has been a flurry of activity, from talks in Saudi Arabia to Oval Office meetings, and even a summit in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Europeans have spent nearly a year talking among themselves about providing a peacekeeping force, whenever a ceasefire is reached. Yet despite all this diplomacy, multiple meetings, and countless statements, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine’s cities and engage in a brutal, months-long ground offensive.

Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition—and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine. Should Russia conclude that it cannot fully “win” and that destroying Ukraine’s military and toppling Ukraine’s democracy is impossible, that does not mean that Moscow will sue for peace. Instead, a next-best option for Russia is likely a forever war, waged at a lower, more sustainable intensity, that would prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union or NATO. This means that the prospects of the Kremlin seeking any diplomatic breakthroughs are extremely low.

Read it all.

"Ukraine may need to escalate in order to de-escalate, all while maintaining its defensive line at the front," @maxbergmann and @MSnegovaya write.

Read more from @csiserep about the next chapter for Russia's war in Ukraine: https://t.co/4IOJGSkvT6

— CSIS (@CSIS) October 2, 2025

There’s a great deal at stake in the upcoming Czech election — for Russia. So perhaps it’s no wonder that Czechia has been flooded by pro-Russian disinformation of late.

A victory by populist right-winger Andrej Babiš, who is ahead in the polls, would see him join Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico around the EU table. The Hungarian and Slovak leaders are on friendly terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin and have consistently torpedoed EU unity on Ukraine.

Incumbent Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala has framed the Oct. 3-4 vote as no less than a battle over the country’s geopolitical future.

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Russia has flooded the Czech election with disinformation as populist right-winger Andrej Babiš leads in the polls. https://t.co/em6KI3M9Mf

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) September 23, 2025

Ukraine is pursuing a multibillion-dollar arms buildup that would be funded by Europe, seeing it as the best chance of ensuring the country’s long-term survival as American assistance dries up and Western security guarantees remain uncertain.

Kyiv wants not only to sustain its army through the current war but also to make it the backbone of any postwar settlement, with the goal of deterring Russia from invading again. As Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, recently put it: “Ukraine must become a steel porcupine, undigestible for potential invaders.”

At the center of these efforts is a new NATO-backed procurement system that will channel European funds into buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes the system will enable $1 billion in purchases each month, with a particular focus on acquiring U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems to expand Kyiv’s limited arsenal.

The new system would both help replace U.S. arms donations that President Trump has ended and also increase and streamline deliveries of weapons to Ukraine over time. A first sale of cruise missiles and GPS navigation kits, worth $825 million, was announced on Thursday.

Read it all.

Ukraine Pursues a Weapons Buildup More Potent Than Any Security Guarantee https://t.co/pEmO0N1JJZ via @NYTimes

— Luba Howard 🇺🇦 (@marynlm) September 3, 2025

The subtext of this war game is deadly serious. Finland’s entry into Nato in 2023 more than doubled the defence alliance’s border with Russia to almost 2,600km, stretching from the Arctic down to Belarus.

While Moscow is currently tied up with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many along this frontier expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to one day turn his attention to Nato’s eastern flank. The Russian economy is already geared towards conflict and Putin’s imperialist ambitions may mean it goes on to look for conquest elsewhere.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could be ready to use force against the alliance “within five years”. “Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now,” Rutte said in a speech. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later said that Russia was planning “new military operations on Nato territory” in an address to the alliance’s summit last week.

While US President Donald Trump reassured allies he was “with them all the way” on arrival at the summit, he had spooked European capitals hours before with a suggestion that the military alliance’s mutual defence pact, known as Article 5, was open to interpretation.

Read it all.

Can't wait to get to the office and see how this map for today's @FT Big Read printed. A comprehensive look at whether Europe is prepared for war. https://t.co/4neP2wMdoh
A lighter version for print to avoid it printing too dark and issues with white text.#dataviz #gistribe pic.twitter.com/KepzQ6nW76

— Steven Bernard (@sdbernard) July 1, 2025

The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war, after Russian forces conducted the largest combined strike on the night of May 24 to 25. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched nine Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast and 355 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all nine Kh-101 missiles and 233 drones over northern, eastern, southern, western, and central Ukraine and that 55 drones were “lost.” Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes targeted Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.[2] Ukrainian officials stated that the strikes caused civilian casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure and private residences.

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NEW: Russian forces conducted one of their largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 25 to 26 after three nights of record strikes. ⬇️(1/3)

The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war after Russian forces… pic.twitter.com/MnYt11RSKA

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 27, 2025

Donald Trump is holding a gun to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding huge reparations payments and laying claim to half of Ukraine’s oil, gas, and hydrocarbon resources as well as almost all its metals and much of its infrastructure.

The latest version of his “minerals deal”, obtained by The Telegraph, is unprecedented in the history of modern diplomacy and state relations.

“It is an expropriation document,” said Alan Riley, an expert on energy law at the Atlantic Council. “There are no guarantees, no defence clauses, the US puts up nothing.

“The Americans can walk away, the Ukrainians can’t. I’ve never seen anything like it before.”

Read it all.

Trump now threatens Europe with assisting Putin in rebuilding his war machine if Zelensky doesn’t sign over Ukraine’s resources.https://t.co/jhRH9B0aeE

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) March 27, 2025

President Trump said the US and Russia are already talking about dividing “assets” as part of a push to end the fighting in Ukraine, the latest sign that he may be preparing to sacrifice Kyiv’s interests when he speaks with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

One objective of the call is expected to be getting the Russian president to agree to a 30-day ceasefire that Trump proposed this month and Ukraine has agreed to. Putin has been noncommittal so far, saying he accepted the idea in principle but wants certain conditions to be met.

“Tomorrow morning I will be speaking to President Putin concerning the War in Ukraine,” Trump said Monday evening in a social media post. “Many elements of a Final Agreement have been agreed to, but much remains.” Those remarks, along with Trump’s comments to reporters Sunday night that the two sides were already talking about how to divide assets, suggest that many decisions have already been made — with or without Ukraine.

Read it all.

President Donald Trump said the US and Russia are already talking about dividing “assets” as part of a push to end the fighting in Ukraine, the latest sign that he may be preparing to sacrifice Kyiv’s interests when he speaks with Vladimir Putin https://t.co/VssbS4Uy1T

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2025

When a mortar round exploded on top of their American-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, the Ukrainian soldiers inside were shaken but not terribly worried, having been hardened by artillery shelling over three years of war.

But then the small drones started to swarm.

They targeted the weakest points of the armored Bradley with a deadly precision that mortar fire doesn’t possess. One of the explosive drones struck the hatch right above where the commander was sitting.

“It tore my arm off,” recounted Jr. Sgt. Taras, the 31-year-old commander who, like others, used his first name in accordance with Ukrainian military protocols.

Scrambling for a tourniquet, Sergeant Taras saw that the team’s driver had also been hit, his eye blasted from its socket.

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Drones are now responsible for 70% of deaths and casualties in the Ukraine war.

A Thousand Snipers in the Sky: The New War in Ukraine https://t.co/53dQU6uF2q

— Martin Ford (@MFordFuture) March 3, 2025

One in three people displaced by the war in Ukraine remain in urgent need of humanitarian aid, charities have warned on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, on Monday.

An estimated 3.6 million people have been internally displaced in Ukraine, while 6.5 million people have fled the country to find safety elsewhere: 90 per cent of the refugees are women and children. Vital infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals, has been destroyed in parts of the country. Conditions are worst along the eastern and southern frontlines.

Children are traumatised, and suffering from a lack of food and disrupted education, World Vision reports. An estimated 659 children have been killed in three years, and 1747 injured. “The emotional burden faced by Ukrainian children cannot be overlooked,” its Operations Director, Arman Grigoryan, said.

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One in three people displaced by the war in Ukraine remain in urgent need of humanitarian aid, charities have warned on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, on Monday https://t.co/L1wPcXQsZh pic.twitter.com/7WIc1MLm89

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) February 24, 2025

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.

The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.

Read it all.

Revealed: Trump’s confidential plan to put Ukraine in a stranglehold

Panic in Kyiv as US president demands higher share of GDP than Germany’s First World War reparations.https://t.co/3rFDHydtCd

— Ruchir Sharma (@ruchirsharma_1) February 18, 2025

Ukraine sent its largest-ever delegation to Washington, DC, last week to rally support for more military defense and plead with Donald Trump not to pull the plug and make a deal that favors Russia. Pastors and religious leaders in the delegation fear that time is running out. 

“We know that President Trump is working on the new negotiations to help bring this war to an end,” said Igor Bandura, vice president of the Baptist Union of Ukraine. “We are here to pray, to advocate, to share our experience, and to remind the American people and American politicians that we are looking not just to end the war, but we need a just peace.”

American conservative and evangelical support for Ukraine has waned as the war has gone on and the Republican Party under Trump has grown increasingly skeptical of international alliances. Past efforts to shore up support for Ukraine among Republicans have yielded results, though, so the delegation remained hopeful, despite deep concerns.

Read it all.

Ukrainian Christians are pleading with the Trump administration not to pull the plug on support and make a deal that favors Russia.

“We are looking not just to end the war, but we need a just peace.”https://t.co/wQ0WrrLZGI

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) February 13, 2025

Ukraine is not only the breadbasket of Europe; it is also a mineral superpower, with some of the largest reserves of 117 of the 120 most widely used minerals in the world.

Of the 50 strategic minerals identified by the United States as critical to its economy and national security, many of which are quite rare yet key to certain high-value applications, Ukraine supplies 22.

Ukraine possesses the largest reserves of uranium in Europe; the second-largest reserves of iron ore, titanium and manganese; and the third-largest reserves of shale gas — as well as large deposits of lithium, graphite and rare earth metals, according to a 2022 report by the Canadian geopolitical risk-analysis firm SecDev. These minerals are essential to the production of vital goods ranging from airplanes, cellphones and electric vehicles to steel and nuclear power.

The question for the president-elect is: Does he want Russia and China to get that treasure trove of natural resources? Or does he want to develop them with Ukraine to the benefit of the American people? One of the main reasons Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine (aside from his delusional historical fantasies about how Ukrainians and Russians are “one people”) was to seize these natural resources, which are valued at an estimated $26 trillion, according to SecDev.

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Does Trump want Putin to get Ukraine’s $26 trillion in gas and minerals? Kyiv controls vast gas and mineral deposits. Does Trump want those flowing west, or to Russia and China?

Gift link: https://t.co/3feef88yEZ pic.twitter.com/QVIbrZFNyc

— Marc Thiessen 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱 (@marcthiessen) December 19, 2024

The Newspaper round in Velyka Pysarivka can be sketchy. Barely 3km from the Russian border, the village is stalked by death. Oleskiy and Natalia Pasyuga, the husband-and-wife duo behind the Vorskla (the weekly takes its name from the local river) have a survival algorithm. Oleksiy, 56, drives. Natalia, 53, listens out of the passenger window for the drones that grow stealthier with every day. They say they are careful, though they know they are kidding themselves. Delivering the paper to the last remaining residents of the village is not a rational exercise, but a love affair. The tears of subscribers make it worth it, Ms Pasyuga says: “They grab the paper and hold it to their nose to smell the fresh newsprint.”

For its 2,500 readers, the Vorskla is more than a news source; it is a connection to the outside world. Most of Ukraine’s border villages now have no electricity or mobile connection. When televisions work, they pick up Russian channels. The Pasyugas say they feel obliged to stay to debunk the propaganda, though they evacuated their offices from Velyka Pysarivka in March after a glide bomb smashed their car and half the building. Six months later the Russians destroyed the other half, during attacks that coincided with Ukraine’s advance into Russia’s Kursk province just to the north. Now the Vorskla is put together in a library in the nearby town of Okhtyrka. It is printed and hand delivered to front-line villages in a car the couple borrow from their son.

When your correspondent calls, the Pasyugas are preparing a special Christmas issue. They already know what they want: uplifting stories to raise the morale of their weary readers. For once, there will be no obituaries of the local boys lost in battle. The Kursk offensive will be left out too, though that is less unusual. The Pasyugas say they know “too much” to accept the official celebration of the offensive as “Ukraine’s great and only triumph of 2024”. They choose silence instead.

Read it all.

What might a possible deal for peace in Ukraine look like in the coming year? Find out in The World Ahead https://t.co/zX7oLK9XU1

Photo: AP pic.twitter.com/JWpGo0QQTY

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 13, 2024

Ukrainian forces have defended against Russia’s full-scale invasion for 1,000 days and continue to demonstrate incredible resilience against Russian aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 under the incorrect assumption that Ukraine would fail to defend itself and that Russian forces would be able to seize Kyiv City and install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. One thousand days later, Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed Russian forces from their most forward points of advance in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, and Mykolaiv oblasts and continue their daily fight to liberate occupied territory in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Russian forces are currently advancing throughout eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials have recently warned about the possibility of an imminent Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is simultaneously waging an informational war against the West, Ukraine, and the Russian population aimed at convincing the world that Russian victory is inevitable, and that Ukraine stands no chance. This informational effort is born out of Putin’s fear and understanding that sustained Western military, economic, and diplomatic support for Ukraine will turn the tide of the war against Russia.

Read it all.

Additional Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted the first ATAMCS strike on Russian territory overnight on November 18 to 19, hitting a Russian ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast — days after obtaining permission to conduct such strikes. (1/4) https://t.co/nnaLxJtFXY pic.twitter.com/9TgCfPKkSK

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 20, 2024

Until recently, the Russian government had cushioned the economy from higher borrowing costs. A variety of schemes made it easier for households to suspend debt payments and for firms to borrow at lower subsidised rates, with the government stepping in to compensate banks for lost income. There are signs, though, that such programmes are becoming unaffordable. A mortgage-subsidy scheme, which had allowed borrowing at a cost of just 8% when official rates were much higher, ended on July 1st. Mortgage volumes halved in the following month. Corporate bankruptcies have risen by 20% this year. The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a trade body, reckons investment plans for next year are being put on hold owing to heavy borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates will crimp spending by both firms and consumers. The IMF expects Russian economic growth to slow sharply to 1.3% next year. Even VEB, the state-run development bank, has cut its growth estimate to 2%. A combination of lower investment and manpower lost to the front is taking a toll. The need to maintain the value of the rouble to pay for crucial imports is a vulnerability for Mr Putin, and one which could soon take a toll on his ability to fight. He may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end. Waging a 3% war is one thing; a 21% war is quite another. 

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Russia’s economy has confounded analysts since the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Now, however, Vladimir Putin may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end https://t.co/EQL3wCoHSh 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 20, 2024

European and NATO officials acknowledge that talk of territorial concessions no longer raises as many eyebrows as it once did, and diplomats frame it not as “land-for-peace” but rather as land for Ukraine’s security.

“I think everybody has more or less reached this conclusion. It’s hard to say it publicly because it would be a way of saying we are going to reward aggression,” said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Washington.

“It’s certainly not fringe anymore,” said a Western official who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

It’s unclear exactly what a deal might look like, as diplomats weigh blueprints of “peace plans” floated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With Russian forces in control of roughly a fifth of the country — including in the eastern Donbas region and the annexed Crimean Peninsula — freezing today’s front lines or outlining a demarcation line would mean Ukraine ceding swaths of its territory.

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Ukraine’s European allies eye once-taboo ‘land-for-peace’ negotiations https://t.co/OHvlOH5hyT

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) November 14, 2024

In principle, Ukraine could liberate its lost territory if the United States and its European partners intervened with forces of their own. But this would require jettisoning the indirect strategy they chose in 2022. It would come at great human, military, and economic cost. And it would introduce far greater risk, as it would mean war between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. For this reason, such a policy will not be adopted.

Instead of clinging to an infeasible definition of victory, Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome. It should still define victory as Kyiv remaining sovereign and independent, free to join whatever alliances and associations it wants. But it should jettison the idea that, to win, Kyiv needs to liberate all its land. So as the United States and its allies continue to arm Ukraine, they must take the uncomfortable step of pushing Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin—and laying out a clear sense of how it should do so.

Such a pivot may be unpopular. It will take political courage to make, and it will require care to implement. But it is the only way to end the hostilities, preserve Ukraine as a truly independent country, enable it to rebuild, and avoid a dire outcome for both Ukraine and the world.

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The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs https://t.co/YQorbrdOWe

— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) November 4, 2024

US military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller in recent months, as the stockpiles of weapons and equipment that the Pentagon is willing to send Kyiv from its own inventory have dwindled. The shift comes amid concerns about US military readiness being impacted as US arms manufacturers play catchup to the huge demand created by the war against Russia.

The shortage means the Biden administration still has $6 billion in funds available to arm and equip Ukraine, but the Pentagon lacks the inventory it is willing to deliver more than two years into the war, two US officials told CNN.

“It’s about the stockpiles we have on our shelves, what [the Ukrainians] are asking for, and whether we can meet those requests with what we currently have” without impacting readiness, one of the officials said.

The Pentagon has asked Congress for more time to spend that money before it expires at the end of September, according to Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary. It’s a stark reversal from last winter, when the administration was pleading with lawmakers for additional funding to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

Read it all.

New: US military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller as stockpiles of weapons DoD is willing to send from its own inventory have dwindled. It's resulted in a new problem for the admin: Too much money for Ukraine and not enough time to spend it. https://t.co/Fpxse6f4yq

— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) September 17, 2024

Britain and the U.S. are poised to cross a decisive Rubicon in the Ukraine war on Friday at a White House summit where they will discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles.

In a final bid to scare off the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday evening he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia,” he said.

The threat came with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer still en route to Washington ahead of Friday’s talks with President Joe Biden over Ukraine’s possible use of British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles on Russian soil.

“Russia started this conflict,” Starmer responded, speaking to journalists on board his flight. “Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away.”

Read it all.

BIG READ

Putin threatens war as Western allies near deal on missile strikes in Russia

Big read on the drumbeat towards a deal — nothing announced tomorrow but will be a crucial staging post

We get inside all the issues & report from over the Atlantic https://t.co/F6y7P0TnhW

— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) September 12, 2024

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has dented Vladimir Putin’s war narrative and triggered “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, two of the world’s leading spy chiefs have said.

CIA director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said.

He was speaking at the Financial Times’ Weekend festival in London on Saturday alongside MI6 chief Richard Moore. Moore said the Kursk offensive was “a typically audacious and bold move by the Ukrainians . . . to try and change the game” — although he cautioned it was “too early” to say how long Kyiv’s forces would be able to control the Russian territory they had seized.

Read it all (subscription).

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has triggered doubts among Russian elite, spy chiefs say https://t.co/gAzWq9L2qe

— FT Europe (@ftbrussels) September 7, 2024

Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply lines have left Russian units scrambling for food, water and ammunition, blunting Moscow’s renewed invasion into Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region, according to Ukrainian field commanders who shared radio and phone intercepts and results of their interrogations of Russian prisoners of war.

The intercepts and extensive interviews with 10 Ukrainian commanders and troops operating across the front line in Kharkiv — including several who monitor Russian communications and who question POWs immediately after they are captured — paint a picture of increasingly desperate Russian ground troops who are losing personnel and momentum after reinvading across the border in May.

In the transcript of one radio conversation, intercepted in June and shared with The Washington Post, a Russian soldier orders another to ensure incoming troops responsible for carrying supplies understand that there is a dire shortage of food and water.

“Tell each of them … not to listen to the [expletive] guide who says that ‘Water is not needed, food is not needed, everything is here,’” the soldier says. “There is nothing here.”

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Ukrainian attacks on supply lines slowed Russians in Kharkiv, intercepts show https://t.co/zgf2n0iZE6

— David Vickrey🇺🇦🇺🇸🇩🇪 (@DavidVickrey1) July 8, 2024

We analyzed every building across Ukraine that has been damaged or destroyed since Russia attacked two years ago. A vast area with some 210,000 buildings leveled across a jagged, 800-mile frontline and beyond. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.

Few countries since World War II have experienced this level of devastation. But it’s been impossible for anybody to see more than glimpses of it. It’s too vast. Every battle, every bombing, every missile strike, every house burned down, has left its mark across multiple front lines, back and forth over more than two years.

This is the first comprehensive picture of where the Ukraine war has been fought and the totality of the destruction. Using detailed analysis of years of satellite data, we developed a record of each town, each street, each building that has been blown apart.

The scale is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over. Parts of Ukraine hundreds of miles apart look like Dresden or London after World War II, or Gaza after half a year of bombardment.

"What Ukraine Has Lost" – @nytimes uses frontline data from @TheStudyofWar and years of satellite imagery to develop the "first comprehensive picture of where the Ukraine war has been fought and the totality of the destruction." (1/2) pic.twitter.com/cSMfF6P2pj

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 4, 2024

To keep Ukraine’s artillery crews supplied, the Pentagon set a production target last year of 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025. Factories in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., together make about 36,000 shells per month. The new General Dynamics facility in Mesquite, Texas, will make 30,000 each month once it reaches its full capacity.

The 100,000-per-month goal represents a nearly tenfold increase in production from a few years ago.

An Ohio-based defense firm called IMT is expected to make up the difference.

Less than a year ago, the surrounding area here in North Texas was just a dirt field. But with millions of dollars from Congress and help from Repkon, the American defense firm General Dynamics was able to open the factory about 10 months after breaking ground.

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U.S. to build plant in Texas to produce 155mm shells for Ukraine – NYT

This will be the first plant the Pentagon has built from scratch since the war in Ukraine began. The plant will produce 30,000 artillery shells per month, about twice the current US production capacity.… pic.twitter.com/HLb19xfKS1

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) May 30, 2024

Oleksiy Bozhko, a volunteer medic whose team examined the men near the eastern city of Avdiivka, identified the gas as chloropicrin, a banned chemical irritant, based on the men’s symptoms and description of the smell. U.S. and Ukrainian officials, as well as medics, soldiers and international researchers say Russian use of toxic gases on the battlefield is increasing as Moscow ramps up an offensive designed to seize more of Ukraine’s territory than the roughly 20% it already occupies.

“This weapon cripples and kills, it’s indiscriminate,” said Bozhko.

After Ukraine repelled initial Russian attacks in 2022, the war has morphed into a grind where each side is looking for an advantage against hardened defensive lines. Seeing an opportunity in Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and reserve forces, Russia has been pressing forward on several fronts, using guided aerial bombs to smash up Ukrainian positions. Toxic gases can impair Ukrainian troops’ ability to defend entrenched positions, even forcing them to withdraw.

.@wsj: Burning Skin, Teary Eyes: #Ukraine’s Troops Say Russia Is Using a Banned Toxic Gas https://t.co/3oIwPVspkt

— Amb Antonio Garza (@aogarza) May 23, 2024

The problem of being a poor paymaster is equally evident in the case of Ukraine. For reasons that future historians will struggle to understand, the US suspended its aid to Ukraine in late 2023. Europeans did not fill the gap, with the result that Ukraine’s military capacity was diminished and Russia’s hopes of victory revived. According to the latest Ukraine Support Tracker published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, between the beginning of the war and this March, the European Union plus its individual members together allocated a total of €89.9 billion in military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine. The US pledged less, €67 billion.

The result is that Kyiv listens much less to Washington than it did in 2022 and 2023 — hence the recent spate of deep drone strikes aimed at Russia’s energy infrastructure, operations that cannot possibly have been approved by Team Biden, which it seems will (to quote John F. Kennedy) “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship … to assure the survival and success of liberty” — except for higher gasoline prices in an election year.

This has been a horrible failure of American policy. Turning off aid to Ukraine has unquestionably encouraged Putin to believe that victory can be achieved in a relatively short time frame. Thanks to Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko, we know now that, when their invasion was going badly in early 2022, the Russians were ready to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine. The compromise would have ruled out North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership for Kyiv but provided it with multilateral security guarantees to protect its neutrality, and paved the way to EU membership.

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The Biden administration wants other countries to do its fighting in Cold War II, but that approach is economically crippling and rarely achieves victory https://t.co/ogeTcnGAkk via @opinion

— Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) May 20, 2024

The United States has accused Russia of using chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops in violation of the international ban on their use.

The State Department issued a statement that claimed it was likely Russia had used the weapons, including the choking agent chloropicrin, to gain an upper hand during the conflict.

“The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield,” it said.

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The #US State Department accused #Russia of having used chemical weapons in #Ukraine against Ukrainian servicemen – in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention:https://t.co/smyRoeyxCb

— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) May 2, 2024