The Israeli military is increasingly sceptical that regime change in Iran will be possible in the coming weeks, casting doubt on one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s core war aims as the Islamic republic shows its ability to endure intense bombardment.

Two people familiar with the matter said the prevailing view within military intelligence was that the war had not created the conditions for ousting the Islamic regime in the near future. One of them, who is familiar with briefings from the Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence directorate Aman, said it appeared that the aerial campaign had yet to measurably erode the Iranian regime’s hold on power since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28.

Both people spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the evolving thinking within the IDF, rather than an official assessment.

Read it all.

Israeli military doubts war will topple Iranian regime https://t.co/hphrOjqqGv

— Financial Times (@FT) March 26, 2026

If a local airfield wasn’t available, a makeshift one would need to be set up to fly equipment in and the material out. And ground forces and aircraft would need to be prepared to head off Iranian drone and missile attacks. A quick response force would need to be on hand in case more troops had to rush to the scene, former military officials said.

Richard Nephew, a former Iran director at the National Security Council, said any operation would be “very large and very complicated.” He said you would need upward of 1,000 personnel to perform the operation at one site.

“I’m worried about the drone strikes, IED and similar traps, contamination risks, and the long time we’d need to have people on-site,” Nephew said. 

Nephew said if time was short, the U.S. could also seek to dilute the material on-site by mixing it with natural uranium or destroy it, although that could cause chemical contaminations in the area.

Eyal Hulata, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council who is a senior international fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said if the war ends without the U.S. taking care of the fissile-material stockpile or an underground tunnel network where Iran could start enriching again, known as Pickaxe, “it’s a serious problem.”

“But the U.S. and Israel will need to figure out a path to deal with them one way or the other.”

Read it all.

President Trump has said preventing Iran from ever developing nuclear weapons is a central aim of the war he is waging. In the absence of regime change that could mean seizing the country’s fissile material.

Here's what it would take: https://t.co/KJlSfnjqYP

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 16, 2026

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come….

Read it all.

The war in Iran threatens to unleash a wave of inflation at a time when economies worldwide are already in a tight spot. Read more in the Canada Daily newsletter. https://t.co/iWX5sR3kZB

— Bloomberg (@business) March 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

1. The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.  The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.
2. The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3, including the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran, as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution. Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran. 
3. Iranian leaders have devolved powers to lower-level officials in response to the combined force’s strikes targeting senior officials and central decision-making institutions, likely to ensure continued state functions despite disruptions to central Iranian leadership.
4. The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.
5. Iran continued to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US forces and sites in Gulf countries, which has prompted two US embassies to close.
6. The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

Read it all.

NEW: The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of… pic.twitter.com/btsumD6mAY

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 4, 2026

President Donald Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish toward reducing the threat he said is posed by Tehran.

“We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday about the timeline he foresaw for the campaign. “Whatever the time is, it’s OK. Whatever it takes.”

The president has faced mounting pressure to better define the goals of his extraordinary military intervention on Iran, after days of sending mixed signals about what he wanted to achieve.

Trump said that the effort, which launched on Saturday, aims to eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities, destroy the country’s navy, cut off its path to a nuclear weapon and ensure that the government “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

Notably, the president did not mention regime change as one of the campaign’s goals.

Read it all.

President Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish towards reducing the threat posed by Tehran. https://t.co/S3SA3Hxjku

— Bloomberg (@business) March 2, 2026

As the United States and Israel pounded Iran from land and sea for a second day, a defiant Iranian regime unleashed deadly retaliatory strikes across the Middle East on Sunday, amid fears of a wider, protracted
conflagration.

Three U.S. troops were killed in Kuwait, the Pentagon said on Sunday, the first Americans to die in President Trump’s high-stakes war with Iran. And at least nine people were killed in a small Israeli city near Jerusalem. Explosions resounded in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, killing at least four people, as local air defenses sought to repel Iranian drones.

Read it all.

“U.S. troops killed as blasts jolt Mideast,” The New York Times says on Monday’s front page. “Retaliatory strikes widen war with Iran,” the San Francisco Chronicle says.

Read more of today's newspapers here. https://t.co/LINQxUp88K

— The Week (@TheWeek) March 2, 2026

The joint attack brings war to the country for the second time in eight months and risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world.

🚨 Breaking: USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is now attacking Iran's navy pic.twitter.com/CD9rTMWucv

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) February 28, 2026

A parish in Norfolk is marking the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia with a special service and a series of charitable initiatives to show its support for the Ukrainian people.

“This has been a cause really bringing people together — not just churchgoers but people across the community,” said David Styles, communications officer for the Norwich diocese.

“While some people have become desensitised after four years of war, local Ukrainians have been heartened by many messages showing they’re not forgotten.”

Mr Styles told the Church Times that St Peter’s, Sheringham, had marked the anniversary with a memorial service. It had also organised collections of clothing, medical supplies, children’s toys and fire-fighting equipment.

Read it all.

A parish in #Norfolk is marking the fourth anniversary of the invasion of #Ukraine by #Russia with a special service and a series of charitable initiatives to show its support for the Ukrainian people#churchnews #churchtimes https://t.co/QznWG2TN11

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) February 24, 2026

About 100 US military personnel have arrived in Nigeria as Washington scales up an operation to target Islamist insurgents, a Nigerian defence spokesperson said.

US President Donald Trump has accused Nigeria of failing to protect Christians from Islamist militants in the northwest.

Nigeria denies discriminating against any religion, saying its security forces target armed groups that attack both Christians and Muslims.

Nigeria says 100 more U.S. military personnel arrive to tackle Islamists https://t.co/FWHI11SmzI https://t.co/FWHI11SmzI

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 16, 2026

‘The General is sorry to be informed that the foolish, and wicked practice, of profane cursing and swearing (a Vice heretofore little known in an American Army) is growing into fashion; he hopes the officers will, by example, as well as influence, endeavour to check it, and that both they, and the men will reflect, that we can have little hopes of the blessing of Heaven on our Arms, if we insult it by our impiety, and folly; added to this, it is a vice so mean and low, without any temptation, that every man of sense, and character, detests and despises it.’

-From his General Orders, 3 August 1776

Below is a portrait, produced by John Trumbull in 1790, of General George Washington at Verplanck's Point on the North River in New York during the American War of Independence. It is found at the Winterthur Museum, Garden and Library in Winterthur, Delaware. pic.twitter.com/YoSowxlWrr

— Kevin Kempton (@_Kevin_Kempton_) September 10, 2023

-‘The unparalleled perseverance of the armies of the United States through almost every possible suffering and discouragement for the space of eight long years was a little short of a standing miracle.’

–George Washington as quoted in the Ken Burns series on the American Revolution

This terracotta bust of George Washington was completed in 1785 by Jean-Antoine Houdon. ⁣Eleanor Parke Custis and her husband considered this bust "the best representation of Gen. Washington's face they had ever seen." ⁣

Read more about the bust: https://t.co/oDpn0aYJYC pic.twitter.com/iEzZbLc54P

— Mount Vernon (@MountVernon) April 28, 2024

Anthropic’s artificial-intelligence tool Claude was used in the U.S. military’s operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting how AI models are gaining traction in the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter.

The mission to capture Maduro and his wife included bombing several sites in Caracas last month. Anthropic’s usage guidelines prohibit Claude from being used to facilitate violence, develop weapons or conduct surveillance. 

​​”We cannot comment on whether Claude, or any other AI model, was used for any specific operation, classified or otherwise,” said an Anthropic spokesman. “Any use of Claude—whether in the private sector or across government—is required to comply with our Usage Policies, which govern how Claude can be deployed. We work closely with our partners to ensure compliance.”  

The Defense Department declined to comment.

Read it all.

BREAKING: The Pentagon used the Anthropic's Claude tool in its military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, per WSJ pic.twitter.com/1u2r1TfK3E

— Exec Sum (@exec_sum) February 13, 2026

Holy God, who didst inspire the Dorchester chaplains to be models of steadfast sacrificial love in a tragic and terrifying time: Help us to follow their example, that their courageous ministry may inspire chaplains and all who serve, to recognize thy presence in the midst of peril; through Jesus Christ our Savior, who livest and reignest with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, for ever and ever. Amen.

Today, the U.S. Army commemorates Four Chaplains Day, in remembrance of the chaplains who gave their life in service to their Soldiers on the torpedoed Dorchester transport ship in 1943. Here's the true story of their heroism and sacrifice. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/lIRN8Pr3Pz

— U.S. Army (@USArmy) February 3, 2026

Drones are responsible for between 70 and 80 percent of those injured or killed on both sides of the war in Ukraine, according to a new report by a key Latvian intelligence service.

“This makes the war more dynamic at the tactical level, but reduces the chance of either side making a strategic breakthrough,” reads the report by Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), published Monday.

As a result, the decisive factors in determining the outcome of the war are Western military and political support, the authors concluded.

Drone warfare played a major role in helping Ukrainian forces repel Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Since late 2024, however, the drone war has shifted in Russia’s favor, as Moscow adapted to the new technology, according to the Atlantic Council. 

Read it all.

Drones are responsible for between 70 and 80 percent of those injured or killed on both sides of the war in Ukraine, according to a new report by a key Latvian intelligence service.https://t.co/d9BvLABQXg

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) January 26, 2026

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to its original war demands against the background of expected peace talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, and falsely accused Ukraine of beginning the war by attacking Russia. Lavrov gave a speech and held a press conference outlining Russia’s foreign policy in 2025 and reiterated Russia’s commitment to addressing the so-called “root causes” of its war in Ukraine.[23] Lavrov and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly defined these “root causes” as NATO expansion and alleged discrimination against Russian people, the Russian language, and the Russian Orthodox Church (a Kremlin-controlled arm of influence) in Ukraine.

Lavrov also reiterated on January 20 the Kremlin’s rejection of any peace deal that does not cede all of “Novorossiya” to Russia and that provides Ukraine with security guarantees from Europe. Novorossiya is an invented region that the Kremlin often claims is “integral” to Russia and includes areas of eastern and southern Ukraine beyond the oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed. Lavrov explicitly rejected the US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan and listed demands inconsistent with terms in the original US-proposed 28-point peace plan, including the demand for territories that go beyond those that Russia has illegally annexed. Lavrov also rejected a possible temporary or permanent ceasefire in Ukraine because Ukraine could “then attack the Russian Federation again” — falsely accusing Ukraine of having attacked Russia in the past, whereas Russia has been the one to initiate all military aggression against Ukraine.

Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have repeatedly demonstrated that Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet Russia’s uncompromising terms or that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. Lavrov’s January 20 statements set conditions for Russia to justify to domestic audiences its rejection of any terms that emerge from talks at the Davos Summit.

Read it all.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to its original war demands against the background of expected peace talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, and falsely accused Ukraine of beginning the war by attacking… https://t.co/gmPCvKZMuR pic.twitter.com/RGNWNVcPXS

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 21, 2026

Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

Read it all.

‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has abandoned any effort it made in the beginning of this protest movement to distinguish between legitimate economic protests and illegitimate anti-regime protests. Iranian media and officials, including those who expressed sympathy for protesters in the beginning of this protest movement, are categorically describing protesters as “terrorists.”[1] Iranian Justice Minister Amir Hossein Rahimi stated on January 14 that any protester who has participated in protests after January 8—which is when the rate and scope of the protests expanded dramatically—is guilty of taking part in an “internal war.”[2] Rahimi’s statement highlights how the regime has stopped showing any tolerance toward protests, as it did to an extent in the beginning of the protest movement, and views any protest as a serious threat to the regime.

The extent and extremity of the regime’s use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution. Reports from eyewitnesses and protesters in Iran describe an unprecedented degree of regime brutality toward protesters. Iranians told BBC Persian on January 11 that the scale of deaths and injuries in the current protest movement is “unprecedented and incomparable” to previous protest waves.[3] Amnesty International reported on January 14 that regime security forces have committed “unlawful killings…on an unprecedented scale.”[4] Western media outlets have reported protester death toll estimates between 2,000 and 20,000.[5] These numbers surpass the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[6] A US-based human rights organization also estimated that the regime has arrested over 10,000 individuals in the current wave of protests thus far.[7] The regime previously arrested around 7,000 individuals in the 2019 protests and 20,000 individuals during the Mahsa Amini movement. The regime arrested 20,000 individuals over a roughly three-month period, whereas the regime has arrested 10,000 individuals in the past two and a half weeks.

Read it all.

Latest on Iran: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into… pic.twitter.com/gY5Ys6hJbB

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 15, 2026

False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation. The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures.

FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.

The Washington Post reported on December 22 that a Russian official stated that a banking or non-payments crisis in Russia is possible and that they do not “want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.” A Russian academic source close to senior Kremlin diplomats told the Washington Post that 2026 will be the “first difficult year” since the start of the full scale invasion but assessed that growing economic problems will not lead to social or political problems.

Read it all.

Western officials believe Putin is pressing on with his war in Ukraine partly because of flawed information he gets about the battlefield, @NastyaStognei and I write.

The rosy picture from his generals has led him to believe Russia can win outright:https://t.co/DzVErrPFXM

— max seddon (@maxseddon) December 22, 2025

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

Read it all.

3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliatehttps://t.co/HfAjRZka0C

— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) December 14, 2025

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

Read it all.

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo have shown the constraints of President Trump’s high-speed pursuit of peace https://t.co/k8gpJmlUyI

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 11, 2025

In September, a wave of 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. The Gerbera-type drones cost as little as $10,000—so cheap that they are often used as decoys to misdirect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. NATO countered with a half-billion-dollar response force of F-35s, F-16s, AWACS radar planes, and helicopters, which shot down four of the drones with $1.6-million AMRAAM missiles.

This is a bargain compared to how challenging U.S. forces have found it to defend against Houthi forces using this same cheap tech. Our naval forces have fired a reported 120 SM-2, 80 SM-6, and 20 SM-3 missiles, costing about $2.1 million, $3.9 million, and over $9.6 million each. And this is to defend against a group operating out of the 187th-largest economy in the world, able to fire mere hundreds of drones and missiles. Our supposed pacing challenge, China, has an economy that will soon be the largest in the world and a combined national industrial and military acquisition plan to be able to fire munitions by the millions.

Even in America’s best-laid plans for future battlefields, there is a harsh reality that is too often ignored. The math of current battlefields remains literally orders of magnitude beyond what our budget plans to spend, our industry plans to build, our acquisitions system is able to contract, and thus what our military will deploy.

Read it all.

"When you spend orders of magnitude more than your foe, you are in what is known as a “losing equation.” https://t.co/hUVfR4sw66 pic.twitter.com/OW3w9kuGhM

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) December 3, 2025

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

Read it all.

Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Washington’s latest peace efforts have jolted the trans-Atlantic alliance https://t.co/C3FLsf5mXm via @WSJ

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) December 2, 2025

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.

The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said. They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.

Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy came amid a fresh push by the US president to end Russia’s war following the ceasefire secured between Israel and Hamas. 

Read it all.

Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia https://t.co/AdUz5KW72A via @ChristopherJM @HenryJFoy @maxseddon @ak_mack

— Valentina Pop (@valentinapop) October 19, 2025

Israel and Hamas on Thursday edged closer to ending their devastating two-year war, agreeing on the initial terms of a deal that could pave the way to an imminent cease-fire and bringing relief to the families of Israeli hostages and to two million Palestinians in Gaza.

The two sides were preparing for an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners this weekend after reaching an agreement overnight, the culmination of sustained pressure from President Trump and Arab mediators. Mr. Trump suggested that he would travel to the region over the weekend, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had invited him to address Israel’s Parliament.

Though details were scarce, and the text of the agreement had not been made public, it promised at least a cease-fire if not a permanent end to a conflict that has set off a humanitarian catastrophe and widespread hunger in Gaza, battered Hamas militarily and left Israel exhausted and isolated internationally. 

Read it all.

Israel-Hamas ceasefire | Israel, Hamas agree to ‘first phase’ of peace plan, hostage-release, Trump says
Follow live updates here: https://t.co/fuAdxyAumN

— The Hindu (@the_hindu) October 9, 2025

This summer’s “12-Day War” between Israel and Iran exposed what Washington should have long known: the US military’s air and missile defense architecture is not ready for a long fight against a capable enemy. Israel severely degraded Iran’s ability to fire missiles by systematically eliminating many of their launchers. However, the United States still expended nearly 25 percent of the total number of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile interceptors during the short conflict. Not a quarter of all our THAAD interceptors bought last year, but a full one-fourth of all of these systems ever procured. The military is falling behind and must reverse course soon.

In the twelve days of fighting between Israel and Iran, over 150 THAAD interceptors were launched at Iran’s more advanced ballistic missiles. This is over three times the average annual procurement of around 40 interceptors since 2010. At $15.5 million per interceptor, this puts the armed forces on an unsustainable trajectory. Even if the Pentagon increases current orders beyond the meager 12 funded in the 2025 budget, it still takes 3 years between the date a contract is awarded and when the interceptors are delivered.

The shortage of THAAD interceptors is not unique. American ships in the region also launched over 80 Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors to help defeat Iranian missiles during the 12-day conflict. The only version of this missile in production is the SM-3 Block IIA, and the Defense Department is still waiting on the first delivery of these upgraded missiles from a contract awarded in 2019.

Read it all.

The US Military’s Missile Gap Isn’t Going Away
https://t.co/WApd0CcRxx

— Amb Antonio Garza (@aogarza) September 9, 2025

China is undertaking a large-scale build-out of infrastructure along its eastern coast, including air and naval sites that show its growing readiness for a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Satellite images and other open-source material examined by The Wall Street Journal illustrate how these facilities would strengthen China’s hand if it launched an invasion of the island democracy. Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and has pledged to take it, by force if necessary.

The sites range from a large new base for amphibious warships to a multibillion-dollar airport that sits around 3 miles from front-line Taiwanese islands. “All of it goes to supporting China’s one military planning scenario, which is a Taiwan scenario,” said Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies who closely tracks these projects.

Read it all.

How China’s New Naval and Air Sites Would Aid an Attack on Taiwan—Satellite images show major infrastructure expansion, including on the Taiwan Strait@NiharikaSM https://t.co/YKNu0YP3KThttps://t.co/YKNu0YP3KT

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) September 5, 2025

At its military parade on Wednesday, China showcased hypersonic missiles to sink ships, drones that serve as wingmen and nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that can strike the continental United States.

The jets that screamed across the sky and the columns of missiles and armored vehicles that rolled past Tiananmen Square in Beijing provided a rare look at China’s new weapons.

The massive military parade, presided over by China’s leader Xi Jinping, was a warning to his country’s prospective foes.

The anti-ship missiles seemed tailor-made to menace American forces in the Asia-Pacific region. Long-range rocket launchers magnified Beijing’s threat to Taiwan, the self-governed island democracy. The armored vehicles that can be dropped from planes appeared to extend China’s ability to defend its growing global interests.

If one theme stood out, analysts said, it was that the People’s Liberation Army is betting on unmanned systems to gain a potential edge in battle.

Read it all.

China’s Latest Missiles, Drones and Submarines, Up Closehttps://t.co/PYguT31WQg

— FJ (@Natsecjeff) September 3, 2025

Ukraine is pursuing a multibillion-dollar arms buildup that would be funded by Europe, seeing it as the best chance of ensuring the country’s long-term survival as American assistance dries up and Western security guarantees remain uncertain.

Kyiv wants not only to sustain its army through the current war but also to make it the backbone of any postwar settlement, with the goal of deterring Russia from invading again. As Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, recently put it: “Ukraine must become a steel porcupine, undigestible for potential invaders.”

At the center of these efforts is a new NATO-backed procurement system that will channel European funds into buying U.S. weapons for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes the system will enable $1 billion in purchases each month, with a particular focus on acquiring U.S.-made Patriot air-defense systems to expand Kyiv’s limited arsenal.

The new system would both help replace U.S. arms donations that President Trump has ended and also increase and streamline deliveries of weapons to Ukraine over time. A first sale of cruise missiles and GPS navigation kits, worth $825 million, was announced on Thursday.

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Ukraine Pursues a Weapons Buildup More Potent Than Any Security Guarantee https://t.co/pEmO0N1JJZ via @NYTimes

— Luba Howard 🇺🇦 (@marynlm) September 3, 2025

The people study nuclear war for a living are certain that artificial intelligence will soon power the deadly weapons. None of them are quite sure what, exactly, that means.

In the middle of July, Nobel laureates gathered at the University of Chicago to listen to nuclear war experts talk about the end of the world. In closed sessions over two days, scientists, former government officials, and retired military personnel enlightened the laureates about the most devastating weapons ever created. The goal was to educate some of the most respected people in the world about one of the most horrifying weapons ever made and, at the end of it, have the laureates make policy recommendations to world leaders about how to avoid nuclear war.

AI was on everyone’s mind. “We’re entering a new world of artificial intelligence and emerging technologies influencing our daily life, but also influencing the nuclear world we live in,” Scott Sagan, a Stanford professor known for his research into nuclear disarmament, said during a press conference at the end of the talks.

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Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems. https://t.co/NFspQ2qXzZ

— WIRED (@WIRED) August 6, 2025