There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.
First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.
Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.
Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.
Read it all (subscription).
Where the Iran War Goes From Here. 3 Scenarios for Oil and Stocks. https://t.co/NzzGDtGIbg
— Barron's (@barronsonline) June 22, 2025