The United States and Israel are planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, multiple sources told CBS News, with strikes possible throughout the weekend. 

There was some discussion about trying to conclude by the time financial markets open Monday because of concern about how the bombings will affect the U.S. and global economy, but an end point wasn’t locked in.

The Israelis have been notified and are coordinating with the United States, according to multiple U.S. sources. The president has yet to give the final ‘go’ orders for the strikes, the sources said.

A joint operation would mark Israel’s return to combat operations which it had halted during the U.S.-brokered truce. Iran has not hit Israel since the memorandum of understanding fell apart and the U.S. restarted combat operations in early July.

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BREAKING: The U.S. and Israel are preparing to bombard energy-related targets in Iran as soon as this weekend, sources say. https://t.co/6bfNrS93ta

— CBS News (@CBSNews) July 31, 2026

Investigators believe a cyberattack this week on dozens of municipal water systems in Minnesota was probably the work of Iranian hackers, according to U.S. and state officials and others familiar with the matter, a potential act of aggression that comes at a precarious moment in the U.S. war against Iran.

Officials cautioned that they had not definitively determined who was responsible for the attack and that the preliminary assessment could change as the authorities collected more technical data.

They also warned that the hackers could be attempting to pose as Iran-based in an effort to ratchet up tensions between the two countries, though former intelligence officials said such a scenario was unlikely.

Local officials reported that the well and treatment plant in at least one city was temporarily offline on Monday, while other cities in the state had to use manual workarounds to cope with attempted attacks on automated operations.

Read it all.

New: Investigators believe a cyberattack this week on dozens of municipal water systems in Minnesota was probably the work of Iranian hackers, a potential act of aggression that comes at a precarious moment in the U.S. war against Iran. https://t.co/Huut3WBM34

— Dustin Volz (@dnvolz) July 30, 2026

Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told ​Reuters, as it rebuilds its defenses amid war with the United States.

The purchase, valued at $60-70 million, is one of Tehran’s largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air ‌defenses since the outbreak of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran’s ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure. The contract covers the purchase of between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources said. The deal was signed with Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, a Hong Kong-based company that the sources said was acting as an intermediary between the Iranian ​side and the Chinese supplier.

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Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks – https://t.co/FYda7NBCmH

— Reuters Iran (@ReutersIran) July 29, 2026

The price of crude oil is a broken barometer. Acute pain in the world energy market has switched to the trio of refined products that we actually consume: diesel, petrol and jet fuel.

The IATA jet fuel index for global airlines has hit $154 a barrel in Europe and $149 in North America, almost double the cost of underlying crude. In trade parlance, the “crack spread” has gone mad. It is arguably worse for diesel. The spread over crude has reached $80 in Rotterdam and $88 in New York, the highest since records began. The whole global market is seizing up.

“I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched,” said Jeff Currie, perhaps the world’s best-known oil guru. We have been lulled into complacency by deceptively moderate oil headlines and by assumptions that the Iran war has settled into a low-intensity management problem. It is nothing of the sort.

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Beware the rising energy dangers of Trump’s Gulf war (£) https://t.co/C5vRYPohmC

— Wolfgang Schremser (@WSchremser) July 22, 2026

When Donald Trump proposed peace with Iran, he could hardly have offered better terms. In return for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and forswearing all ambitions for a nuclear bomb, America held out the prospect of hundreds of billions of dollars of income and investment in an economy ravaged by sanctions and war. The horrified reaction of Iran hawks in America and Israel tells you that no other American leader would have surrendered so much.

The bleak message from the upsurge in fighting over the past week is that, for Iran, money alone is not enough. The hardliners are in charge. They want something more, and it cannot be good—be it revenge, control over the strait, regional dominance or a nuclear programme. America must not yield.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed a month ago, allows 60 days to bring peace. Halfway through, it has itself become the focus of conflict. It asks Iran to “make arrangements to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels free of charge for 60 days”. Iran takes that to imply it is in charge; for America it means that Iran must not restrict sea traffic.

The two sides are exchanging missile and drone strikes, and tankers are wary of sailing even with American offers of protection. Thankfully, these military exchanges have so far stopped short of a return to war. But the oil price is creeping back up. Meanwhile, there has been no progress in talks on tricky matters, including nuclear materials and Iranian efforts to enrich uranium.

Read it all.

America’s president looks bereft of good options for solving the stand-off in the Gulf https://t.co/ZqV1eOixNT

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) July 15, 2026

The leaders of Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the United States have one thing in common: None of them want a commission of inquiry looking into their performance in the latest Middle East conflict. So I have decided to do it for them, and I can summarize my conclusions in two words that apply to them all: “You lost.” There — I’ve saved you all the time and money of an internal investigation. You’re welcome.

This truly is the Middle East war that everybody lost. Even though it’s not over, I can see that. In fact, one reason this war may linger is because most of the leaders of these countries and militias know that history has its eyes on them and the minute the guns fall silent there will be a moral, political and economic accounting that will be devastating for each one of these fools.

Let’s go around the table. Hamas started this latest Middle East conflict on Oct. 7, 2023, with an invasion of Israel from Gaza in which in one day it murdered more than 1,200 people — men, women and children — and abducted more than 250. What was Hamas’s war aim? As far as we can tell, its fantasy was that by invading Israel it would spark a regional uprising in which “resistance” forces — including Hezbollah, Iran and even some Arab nations — would help it to annihilate the Jewish state.

Hamas did not launch this war with any peaceful intent — that is, with a gun in one hand and a peace map in the other showing how two indigenous people, Jews and Palestinians, might coexist between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. No, the only maps Hamas fighters carried showed them where to find the most Jews to kill in the border communities they invaded, including at elementary schools and a youth center.

Read it all.

Thomas L. Friedman

Everybody Is a Loser in This Middle East War
None of the participants in the recent wars of the Middle East can claim victory. All are to blame.https://t.co/jep7NyprVv

— Stuart Falk (@stufalk) June 10, 2026

‘The Iranian regime, which ISW-CTP continues to assess is dominated by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, suspended US-Iran negotiations on June 1. Vahidi and his inner circle likely calculate that the status quo, in which Iran has neither made concessions to the United States in a diplomatic agreement nor is engaged in a full-scale conflict with the United States, is a favorable situation that advances their objectives. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency announced on June 1 that the regime has suspended negotiations, ostensibly in response to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon…

The Iranian regime has likely focused on the Lebanon issue, as opposed to another key sticking point in negotiations, to try to curb Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon as part of the regime’s broader objective to preserve Hezbollah. The regime also likely seeks to drive a wedge between the United States and Israel by falsely blaming Israel and its operations in Lebanon for the collapse of the US-Iran talks. Vahidi and his inner circle also likely calculate that the status quo will help them advance several other objectives, such as solidifying Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the Iranian nuclear program.’

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Iran and the IRGC "likely calculate that the status quo, in which Iran has neither made concessions to the United States in a diplomatic agreement nor is engaged in a full-scale conflict with the United States, is a favorable situation that advances their objectives." https://t.co/OcS9bEjAIh

— Ashley 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@NAFOteacher) June 2, 2026

For nine days, they trudged across the parched soil of southern Somalia, taking turns carrying their 3-year-old daughter on their shoulders. Abdullahi Abdi Abdirahman, his wife and their seven children sought escape from a landscape drained of life.

Another drought had killed their goats and sheep, turning their life savings to dust. So they pressed on for 140 miles toward Dollow, a dusty outpost on the Ethiopian border. They were drawn by the same things that had already attracted more than 100,000 other people: International relief organizations were clustered there, offering food, water and health care.

Yet when they arrived in late January at a camp on the fringes of town, they were horrified to learn that aid groups had abandoned the area. President Trump had dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development, or U.S.A.I.D., eliminating Somalia’s primary source of assistance. From London to Berlin, governments had reduced funding for humanitarian aid. Relief organizations had been forced to choose where to focus their remaining money.

Dollow had not made the cut. Inside the camps, thousands of tents remained, but aid was disappearing. Families were losing cash grants for food. Health clinics were bereft of medicines and staff.

Read it all.

Catastrophe Is Emerging in the World’s Most Vulnerable Placeshttps://t.co/qoXk95478x

— Kevin Purcell (@KevinPurcell_) May 20, 2026

President Trump sought to reassure skeptical Americans that the war in Iran is in the national interest, arguing that the operation was necessary to decimate a regime threatening the U.S. and insisting that economic pain would be short-lived.

In a 20-minute address from the White House, his most direct sales pitch to the nation since the war began a month ago, Trump said the U.S. had succeeded on the battlefield and declared that U.S. military objectives would be completed “very shortly.”

Trump said he still aims for a diplomatic agreement to end the war. But in the meantime, he vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.”

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President Trump sought to reassure skeptical Americans that the war in Iran is in the national interest, arguing that the operation was necessary to decimate a regime threatening the U.S. https://t.co/k1db0hosas

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 2, 2026

President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.

There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority, they said.

Read it all.

My war, your Hormuz problem:

“..: President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said…” — @WSJ https://t.co/PkwPlwgPGy

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 31, 2026

 Gulf allies of the United States, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are urging President Donald Trump to continue prosecuting the war against Iran, arguing that Tehran hasn’t been weakened enough by the monthlong U.S.-led bombing campaign, according to U.S., Gulf and Israeli officials.

After private grumbling at the start of the war that they were not given adequate advance notice of the U.S.-Israeli attack and complaining the U.S. had ignored their warnings that the war would have devastating consequences for the entire region, some of the regional allies are making the case to the White House that the moment offers a historic opportunity to cripple Tehran’s clerical rule once and for all.

Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership or there’s a dramatic shift in Iranian behavior, according to the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Read it all.

“Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership…” https://t.co/WRh4iTIwx5

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) March 30, 2026

The Israeli military is increasingly sceptical that regime change in Iran will be possible in the coming weeks, casting doubt on one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s core war aims as the Islamic republic shows its ability to endure intense bombardment.

Two people familiar with the matter said the prevailing view within military intelligence was that the war had not created the conditions for ousting the Islamic regime in the near future. One of them, who is familiar with briefings from the Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence directorate Aman, said it appeared that the aerial campaign had yet to measurably erode the Iranian regime’s hold on power since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28.

Both people spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the evolving thinking within the IDF, rather than an official assessment.

Read it all.

Israeli military doubts war will topple Iranian regime https://t.co/hphrOjqqGv

— Financial Times (@FT) March 26, 2026

If a local airfield wasn’t available, a makeshift one would need to be set up to fly equipment in and the material out. And ground forces and aircraft would need to be prepared to head off Iranian drone and missile attacks. A quick response force would need to be on hand in case more troops had to rush to the scene, former military officials said.

Richard Nephew, a former Iran director at the National Security Council, said any operation would be “very large and very complicated.” He said you would need upward of 1,000 personnel to perform the operation at one site.

“I’m worried about the drone strikes, IED and similar traps, contamination risks, and the long time we’d need to have people on-site,” Nephew said. 

Nephew said if time was short, the U.S. could also seek to dilute the material on-site by mixing it with natural uranium or destroy it, although that could cause chemical contaminations in the area.

Eyal Hulata, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council who is a senior international fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said if the war ends without the U.S. taking care of the fissile-material stockpile or an underground tunnel network where Iran could start enriching again, known as Pickaxe, “it’s a serious problem.”

“But the U.S. and Israel will need to figure out a path to deal with them one way or the other.”

Read it all.

President Trump has said preventing Iran from ever developing nuclear weapons is a central aim of the war he is waging. In the absence of regime change that could mean seizing the country’s fissile material.

Here's what it would take: https://t.co/KJlSfnjqYP

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 16, 2026

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come….

Read it all.

The war in Iran threatens to unleash a wave of inflation at a time when economies worldwide are already in a tight spot. Read more in the Canada Daily newsletter. https://t.co/iWX5sR3kZB

— Bloomberg (@business) March 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

1. The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.  The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.
2. The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3, including the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran, as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution. Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran. 
3. Iranian leaders have devolved powers to lower-level officials in response to the combined force’s strikes targeting senior officials and central decision-making institutions, likely to ensure continued state functions despite disruptions to central Iranian leadership.
4. The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.
5. Iran continued to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US forces and sites in Gulf countries, which has prompted two US embassies to close.
6. The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

Read it all.

NEW: The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of… pic.twitter.com/btsumD6mAY

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 4, 2026

Three events, three continents, one week. A parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester, England; a thunderous war and the death of a tyrant in Iran; and a terrorist attack in Austin, Texas. They seem unrelated. They are not. Together, they tell you where political Islam has got to—and more urgently, where its most committed adherents are heading next.

On February 26, the UK’s Green Party won a parliamentary seat in Gorton and Denton that the Labour Party had held for decades. The Green candidate, Hannah Spencer, secured nearly 15,000 votes. Matt Goodwin, the candidate for the conservative populist Reform party, came in second with about 10,500, while the Labour candidate slipped to third. The obvious question is how a party associated with bike lanes, green energy, and rewilding managed to seize a Labour stronghold in Greater Manchester.

The answer has nothing to do with climate policy.

The Greens ran two entirely separate campaigns. To progressive voters, they offered the standard mix of green and anti-austerity policies. To Muslim voters, who make up 30 percent of the Gorton and Denton electorate, they offered something else. Leaflets in Urdu, Bengali, and Arabic told readers that Labour must be punished for its complicity in the Israeli war in Gaza. The translated material framed the vote as a community act—a way for Muslims to speak with one voice. Spencer appeared in a keffiyeh outside a mosque. Green Party leadership gave interviews to 5Pillars, an Islamist-leaning outlet that has been involved in the circulation of antisemitic and homophobic content. The Green Party pulled LGBT-friendly content from its Muslim-facing literature in the campaign.

Observers of the election found that about 12 percent of ballots were cast by people engaged in “family voting,” with multiple adults present in the same booth. Britain banned the practice in 2023, but its frequency in Groton and Denton may reflect a deep-set patriarchal tendency among local Muslims.

After the victory, Green deputy leader Mothin Ali attended a London rally backing Iran’s regime—the same regime whose rhetoric targets Britain and whose operatives have been linked to terrorist plots on UK soil.

Read it all.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Iran Is Collapsing, but Islamism Is Spreading. Where will the baddies go next? To towns with charming names like Gorton and Denton? https://t.co/kjEf7vZCuL

— Ayaan Hirsi Ali (@Ayaan) March 2, 2026

President Donald Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish toward reducing the threat he said is posed by Tehran.

“We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday about the timeline he foresaw for the campaign. “Whatever the time is, it’s OK. Whatever it takes.”

The president has faced mounting pressure to better define the goals of his extraordinary military intervention on Iran, after days of sending mixed signals about what he wanted to achieve.

Trump said that the effort, which launched on Saturday, aims to eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities, destroy the country’s navy, cut off its path to a nuclear weapon and ensure that the government “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

Notably, the president did not mention regime change as one of the campaign’s goals.

Read it all.

President Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish towards reducing the threat posed by Tehran. https://t.co/S3SA3Hxjku

— Bloomberg (@business) March 2, 2026

As the United States and Israel pounded Iran from land and sea for a second day, a defiant Iranian regime unleashed deadly retaliatory strikes across the Middle East on Sunday, amid fears of a wider, protracted
conflagration.

Three U.S. troops were killed in Kuwait, the Pentagon said on Sunday, the first Americans to die in President Trump’s high-stakes war with Iran. And at least nine people were killed in a small Israeli city near Jerusalem. Explosions resounded in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, killing at least four people, as local air defenses sought to repel Iranian drones.

Read it all.

“U.S. troops killed as blasts jolt Mideast,” The New York Times says on Monday’s front page. “Retaliatory strikes widen war with Iran,” the San Francisco Chronicle says.

Read more of today's newspapers here. https://t.co/LINQxUp88K

— The Week (@TheWeek) March 2, 2026

The joint attack brings war to the country for the second time in eight months and risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world.

🚨 Breaking: USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is now attacking Iran's navy pic.twitter.com/CD9rTMWucv

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) February 28, 2026

Plainclothes police and security forces, many of them armed, have tried to flood Iran’s remaining open universities in an attempt to crush a fourth day of student protests against the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Running battles were reported on some campuses, with videos showing fistfights between the Basji state-backed militia and students at the University of Science and Technology in Tehran. Pick-up trucks with machine-guns were photographed parked outside the University of Tehran, with demonstrations also in Mashhad.

Elsewhere, students found themselves barred from entry if they had been identified as being involved in previous protests and university administrators also announced the closure of in-person classes. Nearly 80% of Iran’s universities are already conducting virtual courses, partly to prevent students being given a chance to gather to demonstrate against the government and its brutal crackdown of the January protests.

Read it all.

Armed police flood Iran’s universities to crush student protests | Iran | The Guardian https://t.co/BfRAgBQwCe

— Michael Smith (@MickWSmith) February 25, 2026

Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

Read it all.

‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has abandoned any effort it made in the beginning of this protest movement to distinguish between legitimate economic protests and illegitimate anti-regime protests. Iranian media and officials, including those who expressed sympathy for protesters in the beginning of this protest movement, are categorically describing protesters as “terrorists.”[1] Iranian Justice Minister Amir Hossein Rahimi stated on January 14 that any protester who has participated in protests after January 8—which is when the rate and scope of the protests expanded dramatically—is guilty of taking part in an “internal war.”[2] Rahimi’s statement highlights how the regime has stopped showing any tolerance toward protests, as it did to an extent in the beginning of the protest movement, and views any protest as a serious threat to the regime.

The extent and extremity of the regime’s use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution. Reports from eyewitnesses and protesters in Iran describe an unprecedented degree of regime brutality toward protesters. Iranians told BBC Persian on January 11 that the scale of deaths and injuries in the current protest movement is “unprecedented and incomparable” to previous protest waves.[3] Amnesty International reported on January 14 that regime security forces have committed “unlawful killings…on an unprecedented scale.”[4] Western media outlets have reported protester death toll estimates between 2,000 and 20,000.[5] These numbers surpass the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[6] A US-based human rights organization also estimated that the regime has arrested over 10,000 individuals in the current wave of protests thus far.[7] The regime previously arrested around 7,000 individuals in the 2019 protests and 20,000 individuals during the Mahsa Amini movement. The regime arrested 20,000 individuals over a roughly three-month period, whereas the regime has arrested 10,000 individuals in the past two and a half weeks.

Read it all.

Latest on Iran: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into… pic.twitter.com/gY5Ys6hJbB

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 15, 2026

The last time Iran was convulsed by nationwide protests, in 2022, the Arab world was transfixed. The Islamic Republic had spent decades building a network of powerful allies that came to dominate the region. Many Arabs wondered if the prospect of regime change in Tehran offered a chance to throw off Iran’s yoke in their own countries.

Pan-Arab news outlets, often funded by Gulf monarchies, egged on the protests with sympathetic, round-the-clock coverage. Arab diplomats kept their counsel in public but sounded ebullient in private. At one point Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused Saudi-backed media outlets of inciting further unrest and demanded that the kingdom rein in their coverage. “Otherwise you will pay the price,” he warned.

The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted. Evening-news broadcasts this month have been led, routinely, by stories other than Iran. Many officials sound nervous when they comment, if they say anything at all. Two things account for the change in tone: Iran’s diminished status, and the Gulf’s growing fear of chaos.

The Israeli wars that followed the massacre of October 7th 2023 have wrecked Iran’s network of proxies. Hizbullah, its once-powerful ally in Lebanon, has been badly weakened and still faces near-daily Israeli air strikes. Bashar al-Assad’s pro-Iranian regime in Syria is no more. Iran itself is reeling from 12 days of Israeli and American bombardment in June. As for Salami, he no longer makes threats: he was killed by an Israeli air strike at the beginning of that war.

All of this makes the fate of the Islamic Republic seem less urgent.

Read it all.

The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted https://t.co/cQUYYF21oh

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 14, 2026

here is a difference between a revolution and a counterrevolution. It is a recurrent mistake of the American media to conflate the two. That is because the success of 1776—the 250th anniversary of which we celebrate this year—predisposes us to sympathize with revolutions. I can think of no better explanation for the naivete of much liberal commentary on subsequent revolutions: France in 1789, Russia in 1917, China in 1949, Cuba in 1959, Nicaragua in 1979, Egypt in 2011 and, most relevant to today, Iran in 1979.

Let it never be forgotten that, in The New York Times on February 16, 1979, the Princeton professor Richard Falk confidently asserted: “The depiction of [the Ayatollah Khomeini] as fanatical, reactionary, and the bearer of crude prejudices seems certainly and happily false. What is also encouraging is that his entourage of close advisers is uniformly composed of moderate, progressive individuals.” Moreover, “the key appointees” in the new revolutionary government had “a notable record of concern for human rights and seem eager to achieve economic development that results in a modern society oriented on satisfying the whole population’s basic needs.”

“Having created a new model of popular revolution based, for the most part, on nonviolent tactics,” Falk gushed, “Iran may yet provide us with a desperately needed model of humane governance for a third‐world country.”

Nope….

Read it all.

The West wants a revolution in Iran. What’s actually happening is a counterrevolution—and history shows those are usually doomed to fail, writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/WjZRsgcy5R

— The Free Press (@TheFP) January 13, 2026

Initially, the war appeared to stabilise Iran’s politics. A wave of patriotism pulled rulers and ruled together after years of polarisation. Calls by Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, for Iranians to rise up fell on deaf ears. But since the ceasefire on June 24th the multiplicity of opinions on how to preserve unity has made the country look more fragmented.

Mr Khamenei’s preferred option is cosmetic. To appeal to a population disenchanted with clerical rule, he is dressing his theocracy in nationalist clothes. During celebrations on July 5th for Ashura, the anniversary of the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein, and the republic’s holiest day, Mr Khamenei ordered a muezzin to drop his incantations and instead sing Ey Iran Iran, a rendition of a patriotic anthem that was popular before the Islamic revolution in 1979 and had since been suppressed. He has played Shia saints down and puffed up Iran’s pre-Islamic past. New billboards in city squares give ancient Persian myths modern themes. Mr Khamenei has also turned a blind eye to a new crop of television shows, including a wildly popular Persian version of “Love Island”, where unmarried couples flirt and make out. In parts of Tehran, the capital, headscarves and long coats for women feel like a relic of the past.

But such concessions are designed to reduce the demand for political change, not herald its coming. Earlier this month Mr Khamenei reappointed his crusty Friday-prayer preacher and his 99-year-old head of the Guardian Council, the latter for the 33rd time. After a few brief post-war appearances, the state broadcaster has removed reformists from its airwaves. Executions are up; a widely expected amnesty for political prisoners looks far off.

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His diminishing power makes the country’s future increasingly uncertain https://t.co/E1nUPGW6G5

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) July 30, 2025

Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment.

Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.

A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble.

The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.

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New Assessment Finds Site at Focus of U.S. Strikes in Iran Badly Damaged https://t.co/dr2QDpujFD via @NYTimes

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 17, 2025

The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program. The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists

The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall’s side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20]

Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively. The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access. This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.

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NEW Release: Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

By @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 and @SFnuclear

This report covers our damage assessment of several nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, that have been struck since…

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) June 24, 2025

“My office is not in a chapel. My office is where the soldiers are,” said Major William H. Allen, a US Army chaplain based in Arlington, Virginia. 

Allen works alongside service members and catches up with them during meetings and at meals. The day-to-day conversations turn into impromptu counseling sessions about marriage difficulties, financial uncertainty, and suicide. 

When the military faces attacks and escalation, Allen keeps an eye out for anxiety among the troops. Sometimes he’ll approach the commander of the unit to suggest clearer communication about their mission. 

“The beauty—the gift, frankly—of my job as a chaplain is that I’m dealing with people sometimes for whom the uncertainty actually draws them to God,” Allen said. 

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The morning after President Trump announced attacks on Iran, churches on military bases offered prayers for those involved.

“For those that remain on standby on duty and in the region … protect them and watch over them.”

CT story from @HarvestPrude: https://t.co/2DYymYpJ7M

— kate shellnutt (@kateshellnutt) June 24, 2025

This period of 20 years is by no means the first time in U.S. history that military force, economic pressure, and diplomacy have been seen as alternatives to one another, as opposed to tools that must be applied simultaneously, to varying but carefully calibrated degrees, if a recalcitrant adversary is to be effectively constrained. The Trump administration must not repeat the mistake by now attaching too much significance to Saturday night’s stunning demonstration of American air supremacy.

For air power alone cannot suffice. One does not need to accept the cynical critique of Saturday night’s strikes by the former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev. There are valid reasons to doubt that Iran’s nuclear program has been crippled, as Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute has argued. It is not clear what has become of Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of percent-enriched uranium-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons. Iranian trucks were on the move around Fordow before the U.S. strikes. So Iran may still have the ability to manufacture centrifuges and to resume enrichment.

It would be pleasing to imagine the amputation of Fordow setting back Iran’s nuclear program so far that it effectively restores the half-century-old non-proliferation regime. And it would not be entirely fantastical. After all, the use of force ultimately consigned the nuclear ambitions of the Iraqi and Libyan dictators to the trash can of history. With the benefit of hindsight, we can speculate that military action might also have thwarted the North Korean nuclear arms program.

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"As Kissinger often said, every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis," writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/FhWGMLTnot

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 23, 2025

In a moment of political decisiveness and courage, Trump deployed those bombs, despite strenuous objections from the “restrainers” in his administration and parts of the MAGA coalition.

“There’s no military that could’ve done what we did,” Trump said during a brief speech to the nation Saturday night. He is correct. As Niall Ferguson and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant recently noted in these pages, Fordow was essentially impervious to assault. There was one bomb that could cut through its defenses: America’s GBU 57A/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP). And there was only one plane built to deliver that bomb: the American B-2 Spirit.

“With a single exertion of its unmatched military strength,” Ferguson and Gallant wrote, “the United States can shorten the war, prevent wider escalation, and end the principal threat to Middle Eastern stability. It can also send a signal to those other authoritarian powers who have been Iran’s enablers that American deterrence is back.”

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"Trump Keeps His Promise on Iran. The World Is Safer for It." https://t.co/W4cJn812oU

— LuigiC (@Curini) June 23, 2025