Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

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‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into a revolution. The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown. The regime has abandoned any effort it made in the beginning of this protest movement to distinguish between legitimate economic protests and illegitimate anti-regime protests. Iranian media and officials, including those who expressed sympathy for protesters in the beginning of this protest movement, are categorically describing protesters as “terrorists.”[1] Iranian Justice Minister Amir Hossein Rahimi stated on January 14 that any protester who has participated in protests after January 8—which is when the rate and scope of the protests expanded dramatically—is guilty of taking part in an “internal war.”[2] Rahimi’s statement highlights how the regime has stopped showing any tolerance toward protests, as it did to an extent in the beginning of the protest movement, and views any protest as a serious threat to the regime.

The extent and extremity of the regime’s use of violence to quell the protests further demonstrate that the regime views the protests as a proto-revolution. Reports from eyewitnesses and protesters in Iran describe an unprecedented degree of regime brutality toward protesters. Iranians told BBC Persian on January 11 that the scale of deaths and injuries in the current protest movement is “unprecedented and incomparable” to previous protest waves.[3] Amnesty International reported on January 14 that regime security forces have committed “unlawful killings…on an unprecedented scale.”[4] Western media outlets have reported protester death toll estimates between 2,000 and 20,000.[5] These numbers surpass the approximately 1,500 protesters who were killed in 2019 and approximately 550 protesters who were killed during the 2022-2023 Mahsa Amini movement.[6] A US-based human rights organization also estimated that the regime has arrested over 10,000 individuals in the current wave of protests thus far.[7] The regime previously arrested around 7,000 individuals in the 2019 protests and 20,000 individuals during the Mahsa Amini movement. The regime arrested 20,000 individuals over a roughly three-month period, whereas the regime has arrested 10,000 individuals in the past two and a half weeks.

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Latest on Iran: The Iranian regime views the protests as a proto-revolution that it must crush completely and immediately. Some Iranians are resisting the regime, in some cases violently, which reinforces the regime’s view that the protests retain the potential to transform into… pic.twitter.com/gY5Ys6hJbB

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 15, 2026

The last time Iran was convulsed by nationwide protests, in 2022, the Arab world was transfixed. The Islamic Republic had spent decades building a network of powerful allies that came to dominate the region. Many Arabs wondered if the prospect of regime change in Tehran offered a chance to throw off Iran’s yoke in their own countries.

Pan-Arab news outlets, often funded by Gulf monarchies, egged on the protests with sympathetic, round-the-clock coverage. Arab diplomats kept their counsel in public but sounded ebullient in private. At one point Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused Saudi-backed media outlets of inciting further unrest and demanded that the kingdom rein in their coverage. “Otherwise you will pay the price,” he warned.

The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted. Evening-news broadcasts this month have been led, routinely, by stories other than Iran. Many officials sound nervous when they comment, if they say anything at all. Two things account for the change in tone: Iran’s diminished status, and the Gulf’s growing fear of chaos.

The Israeli wars that followed the massacre of October 7th 2023 have wrecked Iran’s network of proxies. Hizbullah, its once-powerful ally in Lebanon, has been badly weakened and still faces near-daily Israeli air strikes. Bashar al-Assad’s pro-Iranian regime in Syria is no more. Iran itself is reeling from 12 days of Israeli and American bombardment in June. As for Salami, he no longer makes threats: he was killed by an Israeli air strike at the beginning of that war.

All of this makes the fate of the Islamic Republic seem less urgent.

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The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted https://t.co/cQUYYF21oh

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 14, 2026

here is a difference between a revolution and a counterrevolution. It is a recurrent mistake of the American media to conflate the two. That is because the success of 1776—the 250th anniversary of which we celebrate this year—predisposes us to sympathize with revolutions. I can think of no better explanation for the naivete of much liberal commentary on subsequent revolutions: France in 1789, Russia in 1917, China in 1949, Cuba in 1959, Nicaragua in 1979, Egypt in 2011 and, most relevant to today, Iran in 1979.

Let it never be forgotten that, in The New York Times on February 16, 1979, the Princeton professor Richard Falk confidently asserted: “The depiction of [the Ayatollah Khomeini] as fanatical, reactionary, and the bearer of crude prejudices seems certainly and happily false. What is also encouraging is that his entourage of close advisers is uniformly composed of moderate, progressive individuals.” Moreover, “the key appointees” in the new revolutionary government had “a notable record of concern for human rights and seem eager to achieve economic development that results in a modern society oriented on satisfying the whole population’s basic needs.”

“Having created a new model of popular revolution based, for the most part, on nonviolent tactics,” Falk gushed, “Iran may yet provide us with a desperately needed model of humane governance for a third‐world country.”

Nope….

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The West wants a revolution in Iran. What’s actually happening is a counterrevolution—and history shows those are usually doomed to fail, writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/WjZRsgcy5R

— The Free Press (@TheFP) January 13, 2026

Initially, the war appeared to stabilise Iran’s politics. A wave of patriotism pulled rulers and ruled together after years of polarisation. Calls by Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, for Iranians to rise up fell on deaf ears. But since the ceasefire on June 24th the multiplicity of opinions on how to preserve unity has made the country look more fragmented.

Mr Khamenei’s preferred option is cosmetic. To appeal to a population disenchanted with clerical rule, he is dressing his theocracy in nationalist clothes. During celebrations on July 5th for Ashura, the anniversary of the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein, and the republic’s holiest day, Mr Khamenei ordered a muezzin to drop his incantations and instead sing Ey Iran Iran, a rendition of a patriotic anthem that was popular before the Islamic revolution in 1979 and had since been suppressed. He has played Shia saints down and puffed up Iran’s pre-Islamic past. New billboards in city squares give ancient Persian myths modern themes. Mr Khamenei has also turned a blind eye to a new crop of television shows, including a wildly popular Persian version of “Love Island”, where unmarried couples flirt and make out. In parts of Tehran, the capital, headscarves and long coats for women feel like a relic of the past.

But such concessions are designed to reduce the demand for political change, not herald its coming. Earlier this month Mr Khamenei reappointed his crusty Friday-prayer preacher and his 99-year-old head of the Guardian Council, the latter for the 33rd time. After a few brief post-war appearances, the state broadcaster has removed reformists from its airwaves. Executions are up; a widely expected amnesty for political prisoners looks far off.

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His diminishing power makes the country’s future increasingly uncertain https://t.co/E1nUPGW6G5

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) July 30, 2025

Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment.

Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.

A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble.

The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.

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New Assessment Finds Site at Focus of U.S. Strikes in Iran Badly Damaged https://t.co/dr2QDpujFD via @NYTimes

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) July 17, 2025

The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment program. The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists

The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall’s side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20]

Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively. The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access. This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.

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NEW Release: Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

By @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 and @SFnuclear

This report covers our damage assessment of several nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, that have been struck since…

— Inst for Science (@TheGoodISIS) June 24, 2025

“My office is not in a chapel. My office is where the soldiers are,” said Major William H. Allen, a US Army chaplain based in Arlington, Virginia. 

Allen works alongside service members and catches up with them during meetings and at meals. The day-to-day conversations turn into impromptu counseling sessions about marriage difficulties, financial uncertainty, and suicide. 

When the military faces attacks and escalation, Allen keeps an eye out for anxiety among the troops. Sometimes he’ll approach the commander of the unit to suggest clearer communication about their mission. 

“The beauty—the gift, frankly—of my job as a chaplain is that I’m dealing with people sometimes for whom the uncertainty actually draws them to God,” Allen said. 

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The morning after President Trump announced attacks on Iran, churches on military bases offered prayers for those involved.

“For those that remain on standby on duty and in the region … protect them and watch over them.”

CT story from @HarvestPrude: https://t.co/2DYymYpJ7M

— kate shellnutt (@kateshellnutt) June 24, 2025

This period of 20 years is by no means the first time in U.S. history that military force, economic pressure, and diplomacy have been seen as alternatives to one another, as opposed to tools that must be applied simultaneously, to varying but carefully calibrated degrees, if a recalcitrant adversary is to be effectively constrained. The Trump administration must not repeat the mistake by now attaching too much significance to Saturday night’s stunning demonstration of American air supremacy.

For air power alone cannot suffice. One does not need to accept the cynical critique of Saturday night’s strikes by the former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev. There are valid reasons to doubt that Iran’s nuclear program has been crippled, as Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute has argued. It is not clear what has become of Iran’s roughly 400 kilograms of percent-enriched uranium-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons. Iranian trucks were on the move around Fordow before the U.S. strikes. So Iran may still have the ability to manufacture centrifuges and to resume enrichment.

It would be pleasing to imagine the amputation of Fordow setting back Iran’s nuclear program so far that it effectively restores the half-century-old non-proliferation regime. And it would not be entirely fantastical. After all, the use of force ultimately consigned the nuclear ambitions of the Iraqi and Libyan dictators to the trash can of history. With the benefit of hindsight, we can speculate that military action might also have thwarted the North Korean nuclear arms program.

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"As Kissinger often said, every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis," writes Niall Ferguson. https://t.co/FhWGMLTnot

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 23, 2025

In a moment of political decisiveness and courage, Trump deployed those bombs, despite strenuous objections from the “restrainers” in his administration and parts of the MAGA coalition.

“There’s no military that could’ve done what we did,” Trump said during a brief speech to the nation Saturday night. He is correct. As Niall Ferguson and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant recently noted in these pages, Fordow was essentially impervious to assault. There was one bomb that could cut through its defenses: America’s GBU 57A/B Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP). And there was only one plane built to deliver that bomb: the American B-2 Spirit.

“With a single exertion of its unmatched military strength,” Ferguson and Gallant wrote, “the United States can shorten the war, prevent wider escalation, and end the principal threat to Middle Eastern stability. It can also send a signal to those other authoritarian powers who have been Iran’s enablers that American deterrence is back.”

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"Trump Keeps His Promise on Iran. The World Is Safer for It." https://t.co/W4cJn812oU

— LuigiC (@Curini) June 23, 2025

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

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Where the Iran War Goes From Here. 3 Scenarios for Oil and Stocks. https://t.co/NzzGDtGIbg

— Barron's (@barronsonline) June 22, 2025

For decades, Iran’s leaders built up a network of allied militias in the Middle East that shared a hatred of Israel and America to gain regional influence and protect the regime. But as the theocracy is now fighting for its own survival, its allies are missing in action.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the most powerful in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran. Its military capabilities and leadership have been decimated by Israeli forces over the past year. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, is a shadow of itself after 20 months of war with Israel that has seen its leaders killed and Gaza destroyed.

In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases, as they have in the past. And Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since.

The bruising wars have left Iran’s allies wary of taking on Israel, which has demonstrated vastly superior military and intelligence capabilities. 

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Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Is Missing in Action

Militia groups allied with Tehran have mostly stayed out of its war with Israel for varying and complex reasons, we learned.

Our latest w/@SalehAlBatati1 @summer_said https://t.co/v8oiFFqcHv

— Sudarsan Raghavan (@raghavanreports) June 19, 2025

When Israel launched its war on Iran on June 13th it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. That evidence galvanised Israel’s own security establishment to support an attack now. It has been shown to America and other Western partners, presumably playing an important role in their ongoing decision-making over whether to support or even join the war. The Economist has not seen the material directly, but has gained exclusive insights from an authoritative source, giving a view of Israel’s dossiers, as shared with its allies, and the claims they make over enriched uranium and the speeding-up of Iran’s programme. Some of the details are already known; some are new. These claims are proving contentious, with the intelligence services of some Western countries cautious about the imminence of the Iranian threat, and signs of divisions within President Donald Trump’s administration. Our report provides context on these disputes….

Israel’s intelligence assessments repeat some of this information. They allege that a cohort of Iranian scientists have been working on overt and covert weapons-related research for years. This effort was originally part of Iran’s formal nuclear-weapons research programme, known as AMAD, that it shut down in 2003, probably because it feared an American attack. The scientists’ ongoing work is thought to be carried out under Iran’s Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research (also known by its Farsi acronym, SPND), under the cover of activity in fields like covid-19 vaccines and laser technology. One of a small number of non-scientists who were aware of the work was Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, who as chief of staff of Iran’s military had oversight of both the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

But the Israeli intelligence dossiers also contain information that, if correct, is genuinely new. They suggest that roughly six years ago the scientists formed a secret “Special Progress Group”, under the auspices of the former AMAD director, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. This group’s aim was to prepare the way for a much quicker weaponisation process, if and when a decision was made by Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to rush for a bomb. Mr Fakhrizadeh was assassinated by Israel in November 2020. On June 13th in the first hours of the war, the Israeli government published slides describing this backstory. But we have been told that it also shared further assessments with allies that suggest the Special Progress Group stepped up its research at the end of last year. Iran had a new incentive to advance to a bomb. It was reeling from the limited impact of its missile attacks on Israel, and the depletion of its air defences by Israeli strikes in October 2024. And it was facing the collapse of its proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in Gaza and Lebanon.

Lastly, Israel’s intelligence states that a meeting had been scheduled between the scientists and commanders of the IRGC’s air force, who are in charge of ballistic missiles.

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Israel launched its attack on Iran on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. The Economist has gained exclusive insights on that information https://t.co/OMoqNvGZvg

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 19, 2025

Mr Khamanei’s recent sermons have been chilling. “We will show them no mercy,” he said of Israel on June 13th, referring to the “evil, despicable, terrorist Zionist identity”. But he also has hinted that whoever or whatever might replace him could make things worse. His successors might abandon his fatwa against nuclear weapons that has prevented Iran from breakout, warn his advisers. A different leader, a military commander or a monarch, might rush to a bomb and wave the nationalist card. After all, it was the Shah who pushed forward Iran’s nuclear programme in the 1970s. Mr Khamanei suggests that his exit could spark violent struggles between the regime’s competing clusters of clerics, democratic reformists and the armed forces. Separatists might resurface in Kurdish and Azeri provinces, as after the fall of the Shah. A civil war is possible, as in Syria and Iraq, a prospect that terrifies many Iranians.

All this means that the mockery of the regime that followed Israel’s opening salvo is turning to fear for the country. Iranians share anonymous maps online of Tehran’s neighbourhoods slated for evacuation ahead of an Israeli attack. “It feels like we’re the only ones left,” says a carer after Israel struck the state broadcasting station close to her home. The authorities have begun rationing petrol. With no clear alternative leadership and ever more fearful, Iranians increasingly wonder if they are better off sticking with what they have. Yet an entrenched regime with nothing to lose could pose an even greater threat to its foes, neighbours and citizens.

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Israel’s shock-and-awe campaign has humiliated the Iranian regime and revealed the failure of its military strategy. Some hope it may trigger an uprising or a coup d'état, in turn creating chaos or national renewal https://t.co/PxTO843ImH

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 16, 2025

The long-standing debate over whether there was a military solution to the threat of Iran’s nuclear program will soon be academic. We will learn in the coming days, weeks, and months whether Iran’s centrifuges and missile factories can survive the wrath of Israel’s air force and Mossad.

It’s too soon to assess the success of the first of what Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said would be a multiphase operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But for now Operation Rising Lion, what Israel is calling this operation, looks ambitious and lethal.

Let’s start with the fact that Israel is going after the regime’s leadership. Already, Iranian state television is reporting the chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, has perished.

State media is also reporting that the command of Iran’s military, General Mohammad Bagheri, along with his deputy, Gholamali Rashid, have perished in the Israeli attack.

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The strike may be a catalyst for the collapse of the Islamic Republic altogether. https://t.co/Cwu7R9bFAD

— The Free Press (@TheFP) June 13, 2025

Decades of Israeli warnings against Iran’s nuclear program and preparations for military action to thwart it culminated early Friday morning with the Jewish state launching a major offensive against the Islamic Republic, striking nuclear sites, military facilities, missile bases and senior leadership.

Jerusalem said it had engaged in a “precise, preemptive strike” against Iran, declaring an imminent threat from its nuclear program and announcing a domestic state of emergency as citizens braced for retaliation. Top officials warned of a potential prolonged conflict, noting that Tehran had the power to inflict significant pain upon Israel.

Multiple waves of Israeli strikes were reported throughout Iran for several hours, starting at around 3 a.m. and into the morning. Over 200 Israeli Air Force aircraft were involved in the opening strikes, and fighter jets dropped over 330 munitions on some 100 targets, the IDF said.

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Israeli military officials said that “at the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat” from Iran

After years of preparation, Israel launches major offensive against Iran and its nuclear programhttps://t.co/bjWHWsdqPG

— Oren Kessler (@OrenKessler) June 13, 2025

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials and others briefed on the discussions.

Mr. Trump made his decision after months of internal debate over whether to pursue diplomacy or support Israel in seeking to set back Iran’s ability to build a bomb, at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically.

The debate highlighted fault lines between historically hawkish American cabinet officials and other aides more skeptical that a military assault on Iran could destroy the country’s nuclear ambitions and avoid a larger war. It resulted in a rough consensus, for now, against military action, with Iran signaling a willingness to negotiate.

Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May. They were prepared to carry them out, and at times were optimistic that the United States would sign off. The goal of the proposals, according to officials briefed on them, was to set back Tehran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more.

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Trump Waved Off Israeli Strike After Divisions Emerged in His Administration – The New York Times https://t.co/g52MRrZclH

— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) April 16, 2025

The Trump administration’s high-pressure campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war.

President Trump has said he prefers a diplomatic solution to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but he has threatened that Iran is “going to be in great danger” if talks don’t go well.

The risk is if talks hit a logjam at a time when the U.S. has piled up military assets in the region and Iran remains vulnerable after Israel battered its air defenses and allies last year, the U.S. or Israel could decide to strike, potentially prompting retaliatory attacks across the Gulf.

In a letter sent to Iran’s supreme leader in March, Trump set a two-month time frame for negotiations to succeed, though it’s unclear if the period was to begin then or once talks get under way. 

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The Trump administration’s campaign to deal with Iran’s nuclear program has put U.S. allies in the Middle East on edge that failure at the negotiating table could spark another war https://t.co/eDiSHqqYGm

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 10, 2025

Iran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge for the incoming Trump administration.

Iran’s decision to expand its stockpile of nuclear fuel and its failure to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, which monitors Tehran’s work, is set to trigger fresh diplomatic pressure from Europe.

Concerns are growing in Western capitals that Iran could decide to develop a nuclear weapon, after comments by senior Iranian officials that Tehran has mastered most of the techniques for doing so. Israel’s hollowing-out of Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy in the Middle East, has also prompted a public debate in Iran about whether the country’s best form of deterrence lies in having an atomic bomb.

Iran has always claimed that its nuclear work is solely for peaceful civilian purposes.

Both the incoming Trump administration and Tehran have sent mixed messages about whether they will seek confrontation or some kind of diplomatic engagement after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

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The accurate take: Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear weapons program since Biden took office. It is now feigning restraint in anticipation of Trump’s return and Israel’s military achievements, which exposed Khamenei’s vulnerabilities. https://t.co/19MFSUDgm0

— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) November 19, 2024

Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

It remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk. Israel’s punishing airstrike against Iran on Oct. 26 shredded the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Iran if it follows through. 

How the Israeli response plays out will depend on the size, nature and effectiveness of Tehran’s threatened strike. So far, Israel has refrained from hitting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, essential to its economy and its security, but that calculus could change, Israeli officials have said.

Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said. Involving its regular army doesn’t mean its troops would be deployed but that the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that normally deals with Israeli security matters wouldn’t act alone in this case.

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WSJ reports #Iran's regime has been sending messages to Arab countries that it is planning a complex response to #Israel involving more powerful warheads & weapons and its regular army. Worth noting Artesh officers have deployed to #Syria in the past.https://t.co/KdVnXRlgIB

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) November 3, 2024

The Economist has spoken to a range of people with first-hand knowledge of Iran’s oil system. To check and verify what they told us, and flesh out the detail, we then sought information from other sources, including former sanctions officials, Iranian insiders, intelligence professionals and WikiIran, a third-party website soliciting leaks. Our investigation shows that the country has built sprawling shadow financial channels, which run from its oil rigs to the virtual vaults of its central bank. China, Iran’s main buyer, is an architect of this system, and its chief beneficiary. Global banks and financial hubs, often unknowingly, are used as vital cogs. A source familiar with Iran’s books says that, as of July, it had $53bn, €17bn ($19bn) and smaller pots of other currencies lying abroad.

Although enforcement has weakened in recent years, Iran is subject to the broadest sanctions America has imposed on any country. Aimed at forcing Iran to curb its nuclear enrichment and funding of terrorism, they target swathes of its economy, as well as the government. No other country imposes such stringent sanctions, so, in theory, most can deal with Iran. In practice, few do so openly, as America bans its firms not just from trading with Iran, but also with foreigners that knowingly do so. It is especially tough for Iran to receive and move dollars, as every such transaction, almost anywhere in the world, must eventually be cleared by an American bank.

But our report shows that, with patchy enforcement, determination and help from a greedy partner, a country under a de facto global embargo can end up flouting it on a cosmic scale. Many of Iran’s tactics are reminiscent of those a drug cartel would use to market products and recycle proceeds into other dark enterprises, often via seemingly legitimate businesses. Iran’s subterranean oil system is governed by rules as much as by threats. The task is to construct an elaborate charade that will dupe sanctions-enforcers.

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Iran's money laundering network (simplified by the Economist) https://t.co/oIUs0Pjo3A pic.twitter.com/qI1FZb8okf

— Dr. Paul J. Sullivan (@DrPJSullivan) October 17, 2024

Years before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Hamas’s leaders plotted a far deadlier wave of terrorist assaults against Israel — potentially including a Sept. 11-style toppling of a Tel Aviv skyscraper — while they pressed Iran to assist in helpingachieve their vision of annihilating the Jewish state, according to documents seized by Israeli forces in Gaza.

Electronic records and papers that Israeli officials say were recovered from Hamas command centers show advanced planning for attacks using trains, boats and even horse-drawn chariots — though several plans were ill-formed and highly impractical, terrorism experts said. The plans anticipate drawing in allied militant groups for a combined assault against Israel from the north, south and east.

The trove of documents includes an annotated, illustrated presentation detailing possible options for an assault as well as letters from Hamas to Iran’s top leaders in 2021 requesting hundreds of millions of dollars in funding and training for 12,000 additional Hamas fighters.It is unclear whether Iran knew of the planning document or responded to the letters, but Israeli officials view the requests as part of a larger effort by Hamas to draw its Iranian allies into the kind of direct confrontation with Israel that Tehran has traditionally sought to avoid.

The 59 pages of letters and planning documents in Arabic obtained by The Washington Post represent a fraction of the thousands of records that Israel Defense Forces say they have seizedsince Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza began Oct. 27

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"Captured documents reveal Hamas’s broader ambition to wreak havoc on Israel" @washingtonpost Hamas wanted to do a lot more on October 7th. They were stopped by Israeli army, police, security and intelligence, and everyday civilians protecting their families, their nation.

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— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) October 13, 2024

One year after the brutal Hamas attack that ended Israel’s two-decade golden age of relative peace, expanding wealth and growing diplomatic ties, the country is now firmly on the counterattack and preparing to be at war for years.

Weathering a ferocious Iranian missile assault in recent days and shaking off calls from allies for a cease-fire in Gaza, Israel is instead opening new theaters of fighting.

It launched a stunning series of attacks against the Lebanese militia Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent weeks, while simultaneously targeting Houthi rebels in Yemen, rooting out militancy in the occupied West Bank and mapping out its next steps against Iran, the architect of a so-called axis of resistance that includes U.S.-designated terrorist groups bent on destroying Israel.

The campaign marks an aggressive shift in Israel’s security posture. 

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God of all comfort and hope, who in Your Son, our Lord Jesus Christ, proclaimed good news to the poor, bound up the broken-hearted, and set the captives free: We remember before You this day all who are affected by the violence of October 7, and we ask You to heal the wounded, comfort those who mourn, and bring justice and peace to the land of Israel. Look with mercy upon the peoples of the Middle East, that, in Your great compassion, the light of Christ may shine in the darkness and bring hope to every nation. As Simeon rejoiced to see Your salvation, a light for revelation to the Gentiles and the glory of Your people Israel, so we pray that Jesus, the Messiah, would be known as the true hope for all the earth. May Your Kingdom come, and may Your peace reign in every heart, through Jesus Christ our Lord, who lives and reigns with You and the Holy Spirit, one God, now and forever. Amen.”

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A prayer on the anniversary of the October 7th attack in Israel:https://t.co/0tlzzCnNay pic.twitter.com/orSPT44Pl7

— ACNA (@The_ACNA) October 7, 2024

Ever since Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis on October 7th 2023, violence has been spreading. One year on, the Middle East is an inch away from an all-out war between Israel and Iran. Israel’s skilful decapitation of Hizbullah, a Lebanese militia backed by Iran, prompted the Islamic Republic to rain missiles on Israel on October 1st. Israel may retaliate, perhaps striking Iran’s industrial, military or nuclear facilities, hoping to end once and for all the threat it poses to the Jewish state.

Iran is certainly a menace, and use of force against it by Israel or America would be both lawful and, if carefully calibrated, wise. But the idea that a single decisive attack on Iran could transform the Middle East is a fantasy. As our special section explains, containing the Iranian regime requires sustained deterrence and diplomacy. In the long run, Israel’s security also depends on ending its oppression of the Palestinians.

Iran’s latest direct attack on Israel consisted of 180 ballistic missiles. Unlike an earlier strike in April, this time Iran gave little warning. But as before, most of the projectiles were intercepted. The salvo was a response to the humiliation of its proxy, Hizbullah, which until two weeks ago was the most feared militia in the region. No one should shed tears for a terrorist outfit that has helped turn Lebanon into a failed state. For the past year Hizbullah has bombarded Israel, forcing the evacuation of civilians in its northern belt. Israel’s counter-attack, unlike its invasion of Gaza, was long-planned. It has made devastating use of intelligence, technology and air power, killing the militia’s leaders, including its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, maiming its fighters with exploding pagers and destroying perhaps half of its 120,000 or more missiles and rockets.

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The year that shattered the Middle East pic.twitter.com/6YqtHxDnDQ

— Ibrahim Hamidi ابراهيم حميدي (@ibrahimhamidi) October 3, 2024

The long-feared “wider war” in the Middle East is here.

For the last 360 days, since the images of the slaughter of about 1,200 people in Israel last Oct. 7 flashed around the world, President Biden has warned at every turn against allowing a terrorist attack by Hamas to spread into a conflict with Iran’s other proxy force, Hezbollah, and ultimately with Iran itself.

Now, after Israel assassinated the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and began a ground invasion of Lebanon, and after Iran retaliated on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 missiles at Israel, it has turned into one of the region’s most dangerous moments since the Arab-Israeli War of 1967.

The main questions now are how much the conflict might intensify, and whether the United States’ own forces will get more directly involved.

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A Wider War in the Middle East, From Hamas to Hezbollah and Now Iran – The New York Times https://t.co/JjU4OyZeLr

— cecilia ballesteros (@ceciliab) October 2, 2024

Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, a move that gives Moscow another potent military tool in its war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow.

The development comes as Russia has stepped up its missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, killing dozens of civilians in recent days. Washington informed allies of Iran’s shipments this week, European officials said, including a briefing for ambassadors in Washington on Thursday.

A U.S. official confirmed the missiles “have finally been delivered.”

“We have been warning of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are alarmed by these reports,” said National Security Council Spokesman Sean Savett. “We and our partners have made clear both at the G-7 and at the NATO summits this summer that together we are prepared to deliver significant consequences. Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”

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Israel and Hezbollah are moving closer to a full-scale war after months of escalating hostilities with the Lebanese militant group, adding pressure on Israel’s government to secure its northern border.

Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization closely aligned with Iran, opened a battle front with Israel on Oct. 8, a day after the deadly Hamas-led raid inside Israel sparked the current war in Gaza.

Hezbollah says that its attacks are in support of the Palestinians and that it won’t stop until Israel ceases its war in Gaza. Reluctant to open a second front, Israel initially responded to Hezbollah with tit-for-tat attacks, trying to calibrate its actions to avoid sparking a full-scale war.

But in recent weeks, both sides say there has been a sharp rise in hostilities. Hezbollah has increased its drone and rocket attacks, hitting important Israeli military installations. Israel, too, has stepped up attacks, targeting Hezbollah sites deep into southern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley as well as senior military officials in the group.

BREAKING

Risk of War Between Israel and Hezbollah Builds up as Clashes Escalate. pic.twitter.com/CcXRcPdqQ7

— World Affairs Eye (@WorldAffairsEye) June 5, 2024

Sudan’s army said it’s poised to get weapons from Russia in return for letting Moscow establish a military fueling station on the Red Sea coast, a blow for the US as its opponents gain influence in the African country torn apart by civil war.

A military delegation will travel to Russia within a few days to conclude the deal, assistant commander-in-chief Yasser Al-Atta told the Gulf-based Al-Hadath TV channel on Saturday. Authorities will get “vital weapons and munitions,” he said, describing the planned Russian outpost as “not exactly a military base.”

Moscow has long coveted a foothold on Sudan’s 530-mile (853 kilometer) coastline, and a final agreement would stoke Western concerns over the country’s growing influence in Africa.

The announcement comes as Sudan’s army strives to regain swathes of territory lost to the Rapid Support Forces militia in a war that erupted in April 2023 and may have killed as many as 150,000 people.

Sudan’s army said it’s poised to get weapons from Russia in return for letting Moscow establish a military fueling station on the Red Sea coast, a blow for the US as its opponents gain influence in the African country torn apart by civil war. https://t.co/7XhPQwcD5G

— Simon Marks (@MarksSimon) May 26, 2024

The theocracy in Tehran is in deep trouble on every front. “The divide between the population and leadership has only increased—as evidenced by public apathy” at parliamentary elections held in March, Sanam Vakil, an Iran expert at Chatham House, told me. Only forty-one per cent of eligible voters cast ballots—the lowest percentage since the revolution. The reason for public disillusionment is partly economic. Inflation hovered at thirty-five per cent in February; the Iranian rial plummeted to an all-time low last year. Under Raisi, the government cut back on food and fuel subsidies and did little to sustain support for health, education, and welfare. The average Iranian feels trapped in economic purgatory. And, in April, the regime, which has the largest missile arsenal in the region, was humiliated militarily. It fired more than three hundred ballistic missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria, which killed three top generals. Iran’s weaponry either failed, was shot down, or was intercepted by Israeli, U.S., and Jordanian forces, among unnamed others. The U.S. called Iran’s brazen operation “embarrassing” and a “spectacular” failure. 

Quoted in ⁦@wrightr⁩ What Raisi’s Death Means for the Future of Iran The theocracy in Tehran is in deep trouble on every front. “The divide between the population and leadership has only increased—as evidenced by public apathy” https://t.co/FJ7scYyjf4

— Sanam Vakil صنم وكىل (@SanamVakil) May 21, 2024