In September, a wave of 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. The Gerbera-type drones cost as little as $10,000—so cheap that they are often used as decoys to misdirect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. NATO countered with a half-billion-dollar response force of F-35s, F-16s, AWACS radar planes, and helicopters, which shot down four of the drones with $1.6-million AMRAAM missiles.

This is a bargain compared to how challenging U.S. forces have found it to defend against Houthi forces using this same cheap tech. Our naval forces have fired a reported 120 SM-2, 80 SM-6, and 20 SM-3 missiles, costing about $2.1 million, $3.9 million, and over $9.6 million each. And this is to defend against a group operating out of the 187th-largest economy in the world, able to fire mere hundreds of drones and missiles. Our supposed pacing challenge, China, has an economy that will soon be the largest in the world and a combined national industrial and military acquisition plan to be able to fire munitions by the millions.

Even in America’s best-laid plans for future battlefields, there is a harsh reality that is too often ignored. The math of current battlefields remains literally orders of magnitude beyond what our budget plans to spend, our industry plans to build, our acquisitions system is able to contract, and thus what our military will deploy.

Read it all.

"When you spend orders of magnitude more than your foe, you are in what is known as a “losing equation.” https://t.co/hUVfR4sw66 pic.twitter.com/OW3w9kuGhM

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) December 3, 2025

Europe is breathing a sigh of relief. On December 2nd Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. Many had been expecting Team Trump to sell out Ukrainian sovereignty in return for commercial deals. The risk of such an odious stitch-up now seems to have receded a bit. Thanks to pressure from European leaders and some sensible Republicans, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, some of the worst elements of a 28-point plan hatched by Mr Witkoff and his Kremlin chum, Kirill Dmitriev, have quietly been dropped. Mr Putin seems unenthusiastic about the current version. Mr Trump now says the whole thing is “a mess”. Diplomacy, like the war, will grind on.

But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong. First, another bad pseudo-peace plan could pop up. Second, even if it doesn’t, Ukraine will need solid military and financial support for the foreseeable future, and it will have to come from Europe. It is still not clear that Europeans grasp this.

When Mr Putin first launched his full-scale, unprovoked invasion, Europe did the right thing. The EU and others imposed stiff sanctions on Russia and gave military and financial aid to Ukraine, roughly matching the level of support from America. But that united front depended on the White House agreeing that territorial aggression should not be rewarded. Mr Trump has blown that consensus apart. Now, the $90bn-100bn it costs each year to support Ukraine’s war effort, a burden previously divided evenly, must be shouldered by Europe alone. The maths is brutal, as we analysed earlier this year. Until a durable peace arrives, Europe must keep paying what it did before—and then find an extra $50bn a year.

Russia may be advancing on the battlefield, but only slowly and at a huge cost in men and money…

Read it all.

On Tuesday Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong https://t.co/LrJSfsETpF

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 3, 2025

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

Read it all.

Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Washington’s latest peace efforts have jolted the trans-Atlantic alliance https://t.co/C3FLsf5mXm via @WSJ

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) December 2, 2025

Europe is now caught somewhere between war and peace.

In recent weeks, drones appearing mysteriously above airports and halting flights have made headlines. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.

Germany alone has three drone incursions a day on average—over military installations, defense-industry facilities and critical infrastructure points—according to a previously unreleased tally by German authorities.

Drones are part of an intensifying barrage that European leaders suspect Russia is directing at the continent over its support for Ukraine. It includes sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

“We are not at war” with Russia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said recently, “but we are no longer at peace either.”

For Russia and the West’s other adversaries, including China, Iran and North Korea, small-scale action can yield big payoffs. Moscow is bogged down militarily in Ukraine and so would struggle to engage members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in conventional combat. Instead, malicious activities that are often dubbed hybrid war or gray-zone conflict let the Kremlin challenge its adversaries without overt hostilities.

Read it all.

Michael Claesson, Sweden’s chief of defence staff, told the Financial Times that Russia was combining "sabotage, special operations, even attacks against individuals" with attacks on critical infrastructure and "exploiting vulnerabilities in the information environment" in order… pic.twitter.com/Qtlm7vvZum

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 23, 2025

From cars and computer chips to tanks and fighter jets, China’s new export restrictions represent a sweeping effort to control global commerce and have set off a renewed trade fight that pits Beijing against not only the United States but also Europe.

The new regulations, which take effect in stages on Nov. 8 and Dec. 1, apply to the entire world, sharply escalating China’s sway over critical manufacturing at a time of increased international fractures over trade. The restrictions led President Trump on Friday to threaten to impose new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1.

The rules go far beyond China’s limits since April on the export of rare earth metals, which are mined and processed mainly in China, as well as magnets made from those metals. In a series of announcements on Thursday, China extended its restrictions to worldwide shipments of electric motors, computer chips and other devices that have become central to modern life and are now manufactured mainly in China.

The regulations prohibit exports from China to any country of materials or components for use in military equipment. Among the items banned are the small yet powerful electric motors in missiles and fighter jets and the materials for crucial range finders in tanks and artillery that are used to zero in on distant targets.

Read it all.

China’s New Export Curbs May Level a Heavy Blow Worldwide https://t.co/CX91lkUldK "The new rules apply to any shipments across national borders…European automakers, in particular, face a daunting task of seeking Chinese export licenses to move car parts within Europe"

— David Mulroney (@David_Mulroney) October 13, 2025

Yaroslav Pavlivskiy waved his hands as he sprang from his car, pleading for mercy with the operator of a Russian drone circling overhead as he drove home from a market in the southern city of Kherson.

The operator flicked a switch to release a grenade, which exploded and tore into the legs of the 69-year-old pensioner. A passerby used a belt as a tourniquet to stop him from losing too much blood, saving his life.

In the hospital the next day, the doctor showed Pavlivskiy a Russian video of the incident, which was set to techno music and carried a caption: “A drone operator spotted another ‘civilian.’ After reconnaissance, the target was eliminated.”

Russian drone operators have turned daily life in Kherson into a terrifying gauntlet. A year ago, from the other side of the Dnipro River, they began sending drones, in addition to using bombs and artillery, to take potshots at civilians.

Now the attacks have intensified to such an extent that Ukrainian authorities, civilians and human-rights groups say it has become a systematic effort to keep people off the city’s streets under threat of execution from the skies.

Read it all.

“There will be no more mercy.”

“No one deserves pity. Spare me your whining.”

Those are captions to videos of Russian drone operators attacking civilians in Kherson city and oblast.

Living in Kherson means risking execution from the sky.https://t.co/Otunmnekn8 (read free)

— Jane Lytvynenko (@JaneLytv) October 9, 2025

As of September 2025, Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years. Despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting, there remains no end in sight.

There has been a flurry of activity, from talks in Saudi Arabia to Oval Office meetings, and even a summit in Anchorage between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Europeans have spent nearly a year talking among themselves about providing a peacekeeping force, whenever a ceasefire is reached. Yet despite all this diplomacy, multiple meetings, and countless statements, Russia continues to pummel Ukraine’s cities and engage in a brutal, months-long ground offensive.

Russia believes it is winning the war of attrition—and that it can overpower and outlast Ukraine. Should Russia conclude that it cannot fully “win” and that destroying Ukraine’s military and toppling Ukraine’s democracy is impossible, that does not mean that Moscow will sue for peace. Instead, a next-best option for Russia is likely a forever war, waged at a lower, more sustainable intensity, that would prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union or NATO. This means that the prospects of the Kremlin seeking any diplomatic breakthroughs are extremely low.

Read it all.

"Ukraine may need to escalate in order to de-escalate, all while maintaining its defensive line at the front," @maxbergmann and @MSnegovaya write.

Read more from @csiserep about the next chapter for Russia's war in Ukraine: https://t.co/4IOJGSkvT6

— CSIS (@CSIS) October 2, 2025

The people study nuclear war for a living are certain that artificial intelligence will soon power the deadly weapons. None of them are quite sure what, exactly, that means.

In the middle of July, Nobel laureates gathered at the University of Chicago to listen to nuclear war experts talk about the end of the world. In closed sessions over two days, scientists, former government officials, and retired military personnel enlightened the laureates about the most devastating weapons ever created. The goal was to educate some of the most respected people in the world about one of the most horrifying weapons ever made and, at the end of it, have the laureates make policy recommendations to world leaders about how to avoid nuclear war.

AI was on everyone’s mind. “We’re entering a new world of artificial intelligence and emerging technologies influencing our daily life, but also influencing the nuclear world we live in,” Scott Sagan, a Stanford professor known for his research into nuclear disarmament, said during a press conference at the end of the talks.

Read it all.

Human judgement remains central to the launch of nuclear weapons. But experts say it’s a matter of when, not if, artificial intelligence will get baked into the world’s most dangerous systems. https://t.co/NFspQ2qXzZ

— WIRED (@WIRED) August 6, 2025

For the first time in decades, the rich world is embarking on mass rearmament. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threat of conflict over Taiwan and President Donald Trump’s impulsive approach to alliances have all made bolstering national defence an urgent priority. On June 25th members of NATO agreed to raise their target for military spending to 3.5% of gdp, and allocated an extra 1.5% to security-related items (Spain insisted on a loophole). If they achieve that target in 2035, they will be spending $800bn more every year, in real terms, than they did before Russia invaded Ukraine. The boom goes wider than NATO. By one estimate, embattled Israel splurged more than 8% of its gdp on defence last year. Even doveish Japan plans to stump up.

Such vast sums could reshape the global economy, by squeezing public finances and shifting activity within countries. As politicians sell the benefits of rearmament to voters, many will claim that military spending will bring economic gains as well as security. Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s prime minister, promises defence will offer “the next generation of good, secure, well-paid jobs”. The European Commission says it will bring “benefits for all countries”. However tempting politically, such arguments are wrong. Using defence spending for economic objectives would be a costly mistake.

The most obvious economic consequence of bigger defence budgets will be to strain public finances. Debts are already high and the financial pressures on governments, caused by ageing populations and higher interest rates, are mounting. The average nato member, excluding America, will need to raise annual defence spending by 1.5% of gdp.

Read it all.

How the defence bonanza will reshape the global economy

As they spend big, politicians must resist using one pot of money to achieve many goalshttps://t.co/p7w5mjGcho

— Juhani Huopainen (@Huopainen) June 26, 2025

There are three broad paths forward in the wake of the U.S. decision to join Israel’s war on Iran.

First, Iran could admit defeat, explicitly or implicitly. The relative geopolitical calm would ease pressure on oil prices and allow stocks to continue on their bullish path.

Second, Iran could escalate the conflict by retaliating against sensitive targets, including direct attacks on oil exports. The ensuing economic harm could range from modest to severe, depending on how the conflict spreads.

Third, Iran could go through some version of regime change, through a coup, a domestic uprising or some other unforeseen circumstances. How that plays out is difficult to forecast.

Read it all (subscription).

Where the Iran War Goes From Here. 3 Scenarios for Oil and Stocks. https://t.co/NzzGDtGIbg

— Barron's (@barronsonline) June 22, 2025

In Flanders Fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

–Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)

In thanksgiving for all those who gave their lives for this country in years past, and for those who continue to serve; KSH.

P.S. The circumstances which led to this remarkable poem are well worth remembering:

It is a lasting legacy of the terrible battle in the Ypres salient in the spring of 1915 and to the war in general. McCrea had spent seventeen days treating injured men — Canadians, British, French, and Germans in the Ypres salient. McCrae later wrote: “I wish I could embody on paper some of the varied sensations of that seventeen days… Seventeen days of Hades! At the end of the first day if anyone had told us we had to spend seventeen days there, we would have folded our hands and said it could not have been done.” The next day McCrae witnessed the burial of a good friend, Lieut. Alexis Helmer. Later that day, sitting on the back of an ambulance parked near the field dressing station, McCrea composed the poem. A young NCO, delivering mail, watched him write it. When McCrae finished writing, he took his mail from the soldier and, without saying a word, handed his pad to the Sergeant-major. Cyril Allinson was moved by what he read: “The poem was exactly an exact description of the scene in front of us both. He used the word blow in that line because the poppies actually were being blown that morning by a gentle east wind. It never occurred to me at that time that it would ever be published. It seemed to me just an exact description of the scene.” Colonel McCrae was dissatisfied with the poem, and tossed it away. A fellow officer retrieved it and sent it to newspapers in England. The Spectator, in London, rejected it, but Punch published it on 8 December 1915. For his contributions as a surgeon, the main street in Wimereaux is named “Rue McCrae”.

“The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.” – G.K. Chesterton

#MemorialDay pic.twitter.com/r6E9PGiSqi

— Sachin Jose (@Sachinettiyil) May 27, 2024

The  Sudan conflict, which began two years ago on Tuesday, is “the world’s most severe humanitarian and displacement crisis”, the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD) has said.

The fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support forces (RSF) has spread across most of the country (News, 21 April 2023).

About 150,000 people are estimated to have died during the conflict, the BBC reports. CAFOD reports that ten million people have been internally displaced, and more than three million have fled into neighbouring countries.

The Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, is hosting ministers from donor countries and the wider region at a conference in London, on Tuesday, to encourage a ceasefire and the protection of civilians.

Read it all.

Get Sudan peace talks up started, international conference is urged https://t.co/DhDh0X4yar

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) April 15, 2025

“She left no last words. She was dead when she was carried away,” says Hafiza quietly, as she describes how her mother was killed in a city under siege in Darfur, during Sudan’s civil war, which began exactly two years ago.

The 21-year-old recorded how her family’s life was turned upside down by her mother’s death, on one of several phones the BBC World Service managed to get to people trapped in the crossfire in el-Fasher.

Under constant bombardment, el-Fasher has been largely cut off from the outside world for a year, making it impossible for journalists to enter the city. For safety reasons, we are only using the first names of people who wanted to film their lives and share their stories on the BBC phones.

Hafiza describes how she suddenly found herself responsible for her five-year-old brother and two teenage sisters.

Read it all.

Today marks 2 years since the start of the war in Sudan. Colleagues at @bbcworldservice smuggled phones into the besieged city of el-Fasher in North Darfur to get 1st hand accounts from the residents there. Reporting by @HebaBitarhttps://t.co/ozyYtYQOof

— Mayeni Jones (@MayeniJones) April 15, 2025

Americans have long equated energy security with oil. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause.

In coming years, though, energy security will mean electricity.

Power demand, stagnant for decades, is now growing rapidly, for data centers to run artificial intelligence and other digital services and, in time, transportation and buildings.

An economy dependent on electricity will be different from one dependent on oil. It will require mammoth investment in generation, distribution and transmission. It will challenge regulators and political leaders, as the supply and price of electricity become as politically potent as that of gasoline. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause.

Economic Growth Now Depends on #Electricity, Not #Oil

Americans have long equated energy security with oil. The country wanted as much as possible because of the havoc an interruption to supply—from wars, disasters and political convulsions—can cause. In coming years, though,… pic.twitter.com/npk1LaNfL5

The U.S. military will continue attacks on Houthi militants in Yemen, officials said Monday, as the Trump administration launches a new, open-ended attempt to prevent the group’s assaults on commercial shipping or U.S. and allied targets.

The Pentagon said U.S. forces had struck more than 30 Houthi targets since Saturday, including command-and-control and training sites, drone infrastructure, and weapons production and storage facilities, in what officials have said would be an intensified campaign against the militants.

“Today, the operation continues, and it will continue in the coming days until we achieve the president’s objectives,” Lt. Gen. AlexusGrynkewich, a senior official on the Joint Staff, told reporters at the Pentagon.

Read it all.

Pentagon says operation targeting Yemen’s Houthis is open-ended

https://t.co/HIXeSnFVPZ

— Mike Walker (@New_Narrative) March 17, 2025

When a mortar round exploded on top of their American-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, the Ukrainian soldiers inside were shaken but not terribly worried, having been hardened by artillery shelling over three years of war.

But then the small drones started to swarm.

They targeted the weakest points of the armored Bradley with a deadly precision that mortar fire doesn’t possess. One of the explosive drones struck the hatch right above where the commander was sitting.

“It tore my arm off,” recounted Jr. Sgt. Taras, the 31-year-old commander who, like others, used his first name in accordance with Ukrainian military protocols.

Scrambling for a tourniquet, Sergeant Taras saw that the team’s driver had also been hit, his eye blasted from its socket.

Read it all.

Drones are now responsible for 70% of deaths and casualties in the Ukraine war.

A Thousand Snipers in the Sky: The New War in Ukraine https://t.co/53dQU6uF2q

— Martin Ford (@MFordFuture) March 3, 2025

Donald Trump, seeing “a big, beautiful Ocean” between his country and the world’s problems, wants to curtail America’s responsibilities abroad. His party is also broadly keen on increasing military spending, and the Trump administration, working with Congress, has new priorities for the Pentagon.

In February several media outlets reported that Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, had ordered a $50bn cut to Pentagon spending. Yet the reported memorandum’s vague language and fuzzy maths belied the reality that Mr Hegseth was seeking cuts merely to offset new spending on “America First” programmes. The Pentagon chief vowed that the changes would make the American “military once again into the most lethal, badass force on the planet”.

Defence spending is poised to rise above levels in the Biden era, when the former president consistently requested after-inflation reductions to outlays. On February 21st the Senate approved $150bn in new defence spending, on top of the department’s existing annual budget that approaches $900bn. The following week a House bill approved $100bn. Some Hill appropriators wonder whether these big numbers will survive the give-and-take of complex spending negotiations, but it is clear that if Mr Trump is pulling back from the world, he isn’t yet pulling back on defence spending. 

Read it all.

America is set to spend more—and differently https://t.co/MY9pqNzJyp #economy #usa #governmentspending #Trumpadministration #military #technology #21stc

— Kendall Harmon (@KendallHarmon6) March 3, 2025

Deep under the sea, pipelines and cables carrying fuel, power and communications are strewn on the ocean floor like a central nervous system for the global economy. 

Huge stretches of these critical connectors lie unprotected in the murky depths—and vulnerable to attacks such as the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines that carry Russian natural gas to Europe under the Baltic Sea.

Now, in the way that the use of drones has changed the conduct of land wars, artificial intelligence is about to change everything about how the deep sea is navigated and how critical underwater infrastructure is protected in wartime and against threats of terrorism.

Read it all.

AI is about to change everything about how the deep sea is navigated and how critical underwater infrastructure is protected
https://t.co/JCmJcgtNe0 via @WSJ

— Martijn Rasser (@MartijnRasser) February 17, 2025

In 2022 and 2023, the Army missed its recruitment goal by nearly twenty-five per cent—about fifteen thousand troops a year. It hit the mark last year, but only by reducing the target by more than ten thousand. The Navy has also fared badly: it failed to reach its goals in 2023, then met them in 2024 by filling out the ranks with recruits of a lower standard; nearly half measured below average on an aptitude exam. The Army Reserve hasn’t met its benchmark since 2016, and the ranks are so depleted that active-duty officers have been put in charge of reserve units. Some experts worry that, if the country went to war, many reserve units might be unable to deploy. A U.S. official who works on these issues put it simply: “We can’t get enough people.”

At the end of the Second World War, the American military had twelve million active-duty members. It now has 1.3 million—even though the population has more than doubled, and women are now eligible for armed service. “The U.S. military has been shrinking for thirty years,” Lawrence Wilkerson, a former senior State Department official who leads a task force on the challenges facing the armed services, said. “But its global commitments haven’t changed.” The military operates out of bases in more than fifty countries, and routinely deploys Special Operations forces to about eighty. Now, Wilkerson said, “it’s not clear that the military is large enough anymore for America to uphold its promises.”

For decades, the armed forces based their requirements on a defensive doctrine called “win and hold”: the capacity to win one war while fighting a second to a standstill. Today, with the U.S. confronting perhaps its starkest global-security challenges since the Cold War, many analysts fear that even one war would be too taxing. A conflict with China over the disputed island of Taiwan could leave thousands of Americans dead in a matter of weeks—amounting to nearly half the losses the country sustained in twenty years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Read it all.

Dexter Filkins reports on the U.S. military’s struggle to recruit from a population that’s not just unenthusiastic but unable to serve as it also reckons with political turbulence at home and mounting security threats abroad. https://t.co/bw6y3RY3zT

— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) February 3, 2025

 China’s military is building a massive complex in western Beijing that US intelligence believes will serve as a wartime command centre far larger than the Pentagon, according to current and former American officials.

Satellite images obtained by the Financial Times that are being examined by US intelligence show a roughly 1,500-acre construction site 30km south-west of Beijing with deep holes that military experts assess will house large, hardened bunkers to protect Chinese military leaders during any conflict — including potentially a nuclear war.

Several current and former US officials said the intelligence community was closely monitoring the site, which would be the world’s largest military command centre — and at least 10 times the size of the Pentagon.

Read it all.

SCOOP China builds huge new wartime military command centre in western Beijing – 10 times the size of the Pentagon https://t.co/19nxQg0MqM via @ft

— Demetri (@Dimi) January 30, 2025

Sailing off the south coast of England, the Russian trawler known as the Yantar carried its usual array of hi-tech equipment.

In photographs released by the Ministry of Defence, a large radar dome can be seen behind two masts bristling with antennae.

Officially, these allow the 108 metre-long craft to monitor ocean currents, befitting a vessel the Kremlin maintains is part of its oceanographic research fleet.

But it was the ship’s more nefarious purposes that prompted a rare display of British naval power on Jan 20, when the Yantar was confronted by a British warship, HMS Somerset, and patrol vessel HMS Tyne.

Humdrum though it may appear, the Yantar is known to carry two submersibles that can dive down up to 6,000 metres, allowing their crew to map, monitor and potentially sever the undersea cables that transmit data around the world.

Read it all.

"It's Moscow's usual deep-sea games again"- Huh? Nothing routine about a spy ship lurking near critical infrastructure. This just proves how vulnerable undersea cables really are in modern warfare. #spyship #Russia #UnderseaCables #UKDefense #Geopoliticshttps://t.co/VzwwMSpqVy pic.twitter.com/k0EjAdaAuJ

— Robert Morton (@Robert4787) January 29, 2025

President Trump’s landmark executive order designating major drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) marks a watershed moment in America’s approach to national security and strategic competition against China. This reclassification acknowledges an uncomfortable truth: the fentanyl crisis is not merely a law enforcement challenge but a sophisticated form of irregular warfare targeting American society, with cartels serving as proxies in a broader strategic campaign orchestrated by China against U.S. interests.

The devastating impact of this proxy warfare is reflected in stark statistics. According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl, were responsible for over 70,000 deaths in 2022. The Drug Enforcement Administration has meticulously documented how Mexican cartels have industrialized fentanyl production using precursor chemicals sourced predominantly from China, creating what amounts to a chemical weapons supply chain targeting American communities. These aren’t merely crime statistics – they represent casualties in an irregular war being waged through proxy forces, with networks stretching from Beijing through Sinaloa and into every major American city.

The Brookings Institution has documented how this crisis disproportionately impacts working-class communities, creating zones of social instability that strain local governments and emergency services – precisely the type of internal disruption that aligns with China’s strategic objectives. The National Institute on Drug Abuse estimates the economic burden of the opioid crisis exceeds $1 trillion, representing a significant drain on American resources and societal resilience. This continued deficit reduces our ability to reinvest in competition with China, while contributing to the ballooning national debt.

Read it all.

https://t.co/T0XizEzRfs

— Small Wars Journal (@smallwars) January 22, 2025

Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

It remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk. Israel’s punishing airstrike against Iran on Oct. 26 shredded the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Iran if it follows through. 

How the Israeli response plays out will depend on the size, nature and effectiveness of Tehran’s threatened strike. So far, Israel has refrained from hitting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, essential to its economy and its security, but that calculus could change, Israeli officials have said.

Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said. Involving its regular army doesn’t mean its troops would be deployed but that the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that normally deals with Israeli security matters wouldn’t act alone in this case.

Read it all.

WSJ reports #Iran's regime has been sending messages to Arab countries that it is planning a complex response to #Israel involving more powerful warheads & weapons and its regular army. Worth noting Artesh officers have deployed to #Syria in the past.https://t.co/KdVnXRlgIB

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) November 3, 2024

The soldier squints through his binoculars. “They can see us,” he warns, pointing to a silhouette of two figures on a hill in the distance. The men in his line of sight are soldiers from Eritrea. But the hill is in Tigray, a semi-autonomous region in northern Ethiopia. Eritrean troops control a significant chunk of Ethiopian territory on the border, in places reaching as far as 10km inside it. At night they creep even further south, spying on military positions and kidnapping civilians. “Let them not start a war and we shall not go to war,” says Tsadkan Gebretensae, the interim vice-president of Tigray and a veteran military commander. “But we are very much aware that things could get out of control.”

The tense situation around the hill, near the town of Fatsi, is a hangover from a war that has technically been over for two years. In late 2020 Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, launched what he promised would be a swift, clean military operation to oust Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). What followed instead was one of this century’s most horrific conflicts. To bring the recalcitrant region to heel, Mr Abiy enlisted tens of thousands of fighters from Amhara, a region next door. He also invited troops from Eritrea, which had been part of Ethiopia until seceding in 1993. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, by bombs, bullets or government-induced famine and disease. Many of the dead were civilians. More than 100,000 women are thought to have been raped.

A peace agreement signed by Ethiopia’s government and the TPLF on November 2nd 2022, stopped the fighting in Tigray. But it did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war’s two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara. Two years on, that omission helps explain why Mr Abiy faces fresh insurgencies at home and a potential war with Eritrea. These new pressures threaten to further destabilise the Horn of Africa, which is riven by tensions between several states or would-be states and is facing fallout from a catastrophic civil war in Sudan.

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A peace deal made two years ago was supposed to ensure that Ethiopia’s warring parties could mend rifts through further negotiations rather than violence.

No such talks have materialised and now another African war looms https://t.co/CPkGQSzenr 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 28, 2024

The Death Spiral is one of the main Pentagon Pathologies. The American people devote ever greater resources to their defense while receiving less and less in return. The Air Force had 10,387 aircraft in 1975 when the Military Reformers began their work in earnest. Today the Air Force has 5,288. The Navy had 559 active ships in 1975. Today the fleet has only 296. The Pentagon’s base budget is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1975, when adjusted for inflation. The American people simply spend more and receive much less in return for their defense dollars.

An argument can be made that modern military equipment is more expensive because of the capabilities they provide the troops. That is extremely debatable because many of the high-profile acquisition programs over the past 25 years have been underwhelming at best, and often complete failures. It is difficult to find anyone who will honestly say the Littoral Combat Ship was worth the effort.

Left unchecked, the acquisition Death Spiral’s inevitable destination is unilateral disarmament. Norman Augustine, a former DoD official and Lockheed Martin CEO predicted in 1983, with only a hint of satire, that by 2054, “the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

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At the current spending rate, in another generation we will have a lot of rich contractors and no aircraft or Naval fleets to speak of https://t.co/k4XV5gsk7Z

— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) October 24, 2024

Sexual violence against women and girls is being seen as the defining characteristic of the worsening civil war in Sudan, as more evidence of the widespread use by all sides of rape as a weapon of war.

An open letter by 253 women across Africa and in the diaspora has called for urgent international action in response to a conflict described as being “fought on the bodies of women and girls”.

It refers to reports of gang rapes of girls as young as nine, and older women, including grandmothers raped in front of their daughters and granddaughters. Male relatives are frequently forced to watch. Women have also reported being targeted because of their ethnicity.

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A bipartisan group of senators this week revealed draft legislation that aims to prod the U.S. government into taking a more active diplomatic role in bringing about an end to the civil war in Sudan.https://t.co/8qzfW6Q5e2

— Stars and Stripes (@starsandstripes) October 4, 2024

Britain and the U.S. are poised to cross a decisive Rubicon in the Ukraine war on Friday at a White House summit where they will discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles.

In a final bid to scare off the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday evening he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia,” he said.

The threat came with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer still en route to Washington ahead of Friday’s talks with President Joe Biden over Ukraine’s possible use of British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles on Russian soil.

“Russia started this conflict,” Starmer responded, speaking to journalists on board his flight. “Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away.”

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BIG READ

Putin threatens war as Western allies near deal on missile strikes in Russia

Big read on the drumbeat towards a deal — nothing announced tomorrow but will be a crucial staging post

We get inside all the issues & report from over the Atlantic https://t.co/F6y7P0TnhW

— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) September 12, 2024

The U.S. is gradually moving aircraft and commandos into coastal West Africa in an urgent effort to try to stop the march of al Qaeda and Islamic State militants across one of the world’s most volatile regions.

American forces were evicted this summer from their regional stronghold in Niger, farther inland, and now the Pentagon is patching together a backup counterinsurgency plan in neighboring countries—refurbishing an airfield in Benin to accommodate American helicopters, stationing Green Berets and surveillance planes in Ivory Coast, and negotiating the return of U.S. commandos to a base they used to occupy in Chad.

“Losing Niger means that we’ve lost our ability to directly influence counterterrorism and counterinsurgency in the Sahel,” said retired Maj. Gen. Mark Hicks, former commander of U.S. special-operations forces in Africa, referring to the vast, semidesert band just south of the Sahara.

Islamist militants are wreaking havoc across the core of the Sahel—Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger—attacking police and military, stirring local grievances, imposing their harsh version of Islam in occupied villages and causing some 38,000 deaths since 2017, according to the Pentagon’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies, which analyzed figures collected by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a U.S.-based, nonprofit monitoring service.

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If only the moderators had asked serious questions about topics like this last night….

U.S. Forces Try to Regroup as al Qaeda, Islamic State Sow Terror in West Africa https://t.co/2olUuGnpKq

— Morgan Ortagus (@MorganOrtagus) September 11, 2024

Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, a move that gives Moscow another potent military tool in its war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow.

The development comes as Russia has stepped up its missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, killing dozens of civilians in recent days. Washington informed allies of Iran’s shipments this week, European officials said, including a briefing for ambassadors in Washington on Thursday.

A U.S. official confirmed the missiles “have finally been delivered.”

“We have been warning of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and are alarmed by these reports,” said National Security Council Spokesman Sean Savett. “We and our partners have made clear both at the G-7 and at the NATO summits this summer that together we are prepared to deliver significant consequences. Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”

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A South Sudanese bishop has warned that food is being used as a weapon by parties involved in the brutal civil war in Sudan, a country on the brink of famine.

“They harass humanitarian agencies,” the RC Bishop of Yei, the Rt Revd Alex Lodiong Sakor Eyobo, told the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales last week. “And, when humanitarian agencies are harassed, they stop delivering food because they also have to protect their own lives.

“The food aid sometimes is blocked by the RSF [Rapid Support Forces], not allowing them [the agencies] to enter. Because when you take food aid to the people, you are also going to feed their own enemies.

“So, they use food as a weapon, so that once food is not delivered, their enemy is weakened. That’s their point of view.”

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A South Sudanese bishop has warned that food is being used as a weapon by parties involved in the brutal civil war in Sudan, a country on the brink of famine.https://t.co/mGd5sSFiPS

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) July 12, 2024