Category : Office of the President

(RCR) Andrew Fowler–George Washington’s Warning About Religion Still Matters

Although private in his own religious convictions and skeptical of fanaticism, in his Farewell Address (1796), Washington’s clarion, prescient warning to contemporary and future Americans — on national and international affairs — definitively emphasized that “[o]f all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports.” Moreover, to “subvert” such “great pillars of human happiness” — like the freedom of religious expression — would be considered unpatriotic.  

Indeed, Washington believed religiosity served as a bedrock for national stability and individual virtue, and a lack thereof would cripple cohesion, writing: 

“And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle.” 

He was not the only Founding Father to stress religion’s intrinsic importance to the new republic. John Adams once reflected, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” Benjamin Franklin, likewise, considered religious practice important for developing virtue, and believed “[God] ought to be worshipped” and “the most acceptable service we render to him is doing good to his other children.” 

Even Thomas Jefferson, the most notable deist among the Founding Fathers, warned about the consequences of abandoning religious conviction entirely. 

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Ethics / Moral Theology, History, Office of the President, Religion & Culture

(Bloomberg) Iran War Oil Shock Threatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran threatens to deal a severe blow to a global economy still grappling with the impact of his historic tariff hike.

For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would take the economy to the brink of recession. For the US, they would place the Federal Reserve in an impossible position — stuck between a war that pushes inflation higher and a president demanding that interest rates come down. For China, the end of discounted Iranian oil imports adds to strain from Trump’s tariffs and a real estate collapse.

In the first days of the fighting, the intensity is high and the endgame uncertain. Bloomberg Economics has modeled scenarios for what lies ahead, and what they mean for oil prices, major economies, and the future of Iran.

It is, of course, possible that Washington and Tehran find an off-ramp, oil settles back at its pre-escalation average of $65 a barrel, and the global economy dodges a blow.

The latest signs, though, suggest there’s worse to come….

Read it all.

Posted in Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Globalization, Iran, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) Trump Says US Will Do ‘Whatever It Takes’ in Iran Campaign

President Donald Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish toward reducing the threat he said is posed by Tehran.

“We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday about the timeline he foresaw for the campaign. “Whatever the time is, it’s OK. Whatever it takes.”

The president has faced mounting pressure to better define the goals of his extraordinary military intervention on Iran, after days of sending mixed signals about what he wanted to achieve.

Trump said that the effort, which launched on Saturday, aims to eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities, destroy the country’s navy, cut off its path to a nuclear weapon and ensure that the government “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

Notably, the president did not mention regime change as one of the campaign’s goals.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Foreign Relations, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military / Armed Forces, President Donald Trump

Sobering News to Wake up to–U.S., Israel Strike Iran

The joint attack brings war to the country for the second time in eight months and risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Iran, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, President Donald Trump

(FT) Donald Trump’s new flat-rate tariff is a boost for China and Brazil and hits US allies including UK, EU and Japan the hardest

Donald Trump’s new 15 per cent global tariff will most greatly benefit countries he has singled out for heavy criticism, including China and Brazil, data analysis shows.

An examination of the new regime by independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert found that Brazil will enjoy the biggest reduction in average tariff rates — falling by 13.6 percentage points — followed by China, with a 7.1 percentage point reduction.

Long-standing US allies including the UK, the EU and Japan will suffer the largest hit from the new levy, which the US president introduced after the Supreme Court ruled much of his previous trade policy unlawful on Friday.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Office of the President, President Donald Trump

(Washington Post Editorial) Trump’s tariffs fall to a principled Supreme Court

The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision on Friday wiping out a chunk of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime is a triumph for the Constitution’s separation of powers and the individual liberty that it protects.

The decision by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. says nothing about whether the tariffs are good or bad policy. But it recognizes that they are a major tax, and that raising revenue is a “distinct” power that belongs to Congress. There’s a reason the 18th century American revolutionary slogan was “no taxation without representation.” Taxing citizens without consent from their elected representatives is antithetical to the American project.

Congress never approved the worldwide tariffs at issue in the case. Trump told the court they were authorized by a 1977 law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. No president has used IEEPA to impose tariffs, but it contains the phrase “regulate … importation.” Trump said that was sufficient authorization for him to throw out the rest of the tariff schedules and set import taxes however he pleased.

Roberts saw the flimsiness of that reasoning. “Based on two words separated by 16 others,” he wrote, “the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time. Those words cannot bear such weight.” Indeed. The executive branch can’t be allowed to grab hundreds of billions of dollars from the American people on such a thin legal basis.

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The Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate the Trump administration’s broad tariffs strips the president of a central instrument of his foreign policy, undercutting his ability to coerce global leaders and reshape world order in his second term.https://t.co/mktSe8eQIw

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 20, 2026
Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Foreign Relations, History, Law & Legal Issues, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, Supreme Court

A NYT article on the Supreme Court Decision Today to reject President Trump’s tariffs

Starting with the 2024 decision that gave President Trump substantial immunity from prosecution and continuing through a score of emergency orders provisionally greenlighting an array of his second-term initiatives, Mr. Trump has had an extraordinarily successful run before the Supreme Court.

That came to a sudden, jolting halt on Friday, when Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing for six members of the court, roundly rejected Mr. Trump’s signature tariffs program. It was the Supreme Court’s first merits ruling — a final judgment on the lawfulness of an executive action — on an element of the administration’s second-term agenda. It amounted to a declaration of independence.

It also served as another in a series of clashes between the leaders of two branches of the federal government cut from very different cloth: the controlled, cerebral chief justice and the biting, brazen president.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, History, House of Representatives, Law & Legal Issues, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, Supreme Court

(WSJ editorial) Vinay Prasad’s Vaccine Kill Shot

It’s hard to recall a regulator who has done as much damage to medical innovation in as little time as Vinay Prasad. In his latest drive-by shooting, the leader of the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine division rejected Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine without even a cursory review. This is arbitrary government at its worst.

The FDA rarely refuses to review a drug or vaccine application. Our sources say the FDA has rejected only about 4% of applications without a review, typically when they are missing important information. That wasn’t the case with Moderna.

Dr. Prasad spiked Moderna’s flu vaccine because its Phase 3 trial was putatively not “adequate and well-controlled.” He quibbled that the control group in Moderna’s late-stage trial didn’t receive the “best-available standard of care.” He decides what is “best.”

Moderna launched a global randomized controlled trial in September 2024 with 41,000 participants, half of whom received its vaccine. The other half received a standard flu vaccine as a control. The FDA blessed its trial design, and agency staffers gave Moderna a thumbs up to apply for approval last August based on the results. Its vaccine was 27% more effective at preventing symptomatic cases of flu and 49% more effective against hospitalization than the standard flu vaccine.

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Posted in Corporations/Corporate Life, Drugs/Drug Addiction, Ethics / Moral Theology, Law & Legal Issues, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(Washington Post) A Washington’s Birthday quiz on the office of President

Every February, Americans take a day off of work to celebrate the presidents — the chief executives whose ideas, policies and foibles have helped to shape our history. So it’s only fitting that you take a moment to test your knowledge about these 44 prominent Americans with a 20-question quiz from “Presidential,” the Washington Post podcast that explores the presidents’ lives and legacies.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Office of the President

George Washington’s Summary of the real story of the American Revolution

-‘The unparalleled perseverance of the armies of the United States through almost every possible suffering and discouragement for the space of eight long years was a little short of a standing miracle.’

–George Washington as quoted in the Ken Burns series on the American Revolution
Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President

George Washington’s First Inaugural Address

By the article establishing the executive department it is made the duty of the President “to recommend to your consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient.” The circumstances under which I now meet you will acquit me from entering into that subject further than to refer to the great constitutional charter under which you are assembled, and which, in defining your powers, designates the objects to which your attention is to be given. It will be more consistent with those circumstances, and far more congenial with the feelings which actuate me, to substitute, in place of a recommendation of particular measures, the tribute that is due to the talents, the rectitude, and the patriotism which adorn the characters selected to devise and adopt them. In these honorable qualifications I behold the surest pledges that as on one side no local prejudices or attachments, no separate views nor party animosities, will misdirect the comprehensive and equal eye which ought to watch over this great assemblage of communities and interests, so, on another, that the foundation of our national policy will be laid in the pure and immutable principles of private morality, and the preeminence of free government be exemplified by all the attributes which can win the affections of its citizens and command the respect of the world. I dwell on this prospect with every satisfaction which an ardent love for my country can inspire, since there is no truth more thoroughly established than that there exists in the economy and course of nature an indissoluble union between virtue and happiness; between duty and advantage; between the genuine maxims of an honest and magnanimous policy and the solid rewards of public prosperity and felicity; since we ought to be no less persuaded that the propitious smiles of Heaven can never be expected on a nation that disregards the eternal rules of order and right which Heaven itself has ordained; and since the preservation of the sacred fire of liberty and the destiny of the republican model of government are justly considered, perhaps, as deeply, as finally, staked on the experiment entrusted to the hands of the American people.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Office of the President

(National Archives) George Washington’s Birthday

Washington’s Birthday was celebrated on February 22nd until well into the 20th Century. However, in 1968 Congress passed the Monday Holiday Law to “provide uniform annual observances of certain legal public holidays on Mondays.” By creating more 3-day weekends, Congress hoped to “bring substantial benefits to both the spiritual and economic life of the Nation.”

One of the provisions of this act changed the observance of Washington’s Birthday from February 22nd to the third Monday in February. Ironically, this guaranteed that the holiday would never be celebrated on Washington’s actual birthday, as the third Monday in February cannot fall any later than February 21.

Contrary to popular belief, neither Congress nor the President has ever stipulated that the name of the holiday observed as Washington’s Birthday be changed to “President’s Day.”

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Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Office of the President

(NYT op-ed) Esau McCaulley–At These Olympics, Which America Are We Cheering For?

I am not given to sentimental displays of patriotism. I own a Team U.S.A. soccer jersey because I love the sport, but that may be my only apparel featuring the flag. I have been to my fair share of Fourth of July parades and fireworks displays, but I am also familiar with Frederick Douglass’s 1852 speech, “What to the Slave is the Fourth of July?” which was delivered on July 5 to acknowledge those not included in the freedoms celebrated on July 4.

Douglass contrasted the lauding of freedoms won while enslaving large portions of the populace. He said, “The blessings in which you, this day, rejoice, are not enjoyed in common. The rich inheritance of justice, liberty, prosperity and independence, bequeathed by your fathers, is shared by you, not by me. The sunlight that brought light and healing to you has brought stripes and death to me.” This Fourth of July, he said, “is yours, not mine. You may rejoice, I must mourn.”

Like many of us, I know well our country’s contradictions.

Despite this, I am a sucker for the Olympics. Seeing our athletes decked out in the red, white and blue during the opening ceremony, or witnessing their tears on the podium as the anthem plays, stirs even my heart, almost despite myself. I experience something approaching national pride when my fellow citizens accomplish feats far beyond my ability.

With the Winter Games kicking off, this year feels different. The shame I feel for how our country is treating its citizens — and those who long to be its citizens — is hard to ignore….

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I will take comments on this submitted by email only to KSHarmon[at]mindspring[dot]com.

Posted in America/U.S.A., Anthropology, Ethics / Moral Theology, History, Immigration, Italy, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, Race/Race Relations, Sports

(NYT) president Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Next Federal Reserve Chairman

President Trump announced on Friday that he was nominating Kevin M. Warsh to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, positioning the former central bank governor to take a pivotal role in steering an institution that has faced a barrage of attacks from the administration over its reluctance to more aggressively lower interest rates.

In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump praised Mr. Warsh, saying, “He will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.”

“On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting’ and will never let you down,” the president wrote.

Mr. Trump repeated that line during remarks at the White House and said that while he did not get a commitment from Mr. Warsh to cut rates, he expected that he would do so.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Federal Reserve, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, The U.S. Government

(FT) Investors bet on ‘hot’ US economy heading into midterm elections

Investors are betting the Trump administration will run the economy “hot” ahead of midterm elections, with buoyant stocks and a weaker dollar reflecting expectations of strong growth and rising inflation.

A string of robust economic data has defied predictions of a slowdown in the US, sending credit spreads to the tightest levels of the century and helping stocks hit fresh record highs this month.

At the same time, fund managers said there is a growing belief that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation push and campaign for lower interest rates will add more fuel to the economy this year, as the president seeks to bolster support ahead of November’s congressional polls. “There is a carefully engineered plan to have the US economy humming into the summer,” said Arif Husain, head of global fixed income at T Rowe Price.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, President Donald Trump

(FT) Janan Ganesh–Always beware a declining superpower

The line from Thucydides, “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”, is getting quite the airing of late. You are meant to nod gravely along to it, as though it expresses a bitter but universal truth about international relations.

Does it, though? The phrase implies that a country becomes more aggressive as it grows more powerful. Well, the US was never mightier than it was around the time of Trump’s birth in 1946, when it made half of the manufactured goods in the world and had a nuclear monopoly too. With all this power, the US didn’t “do what it could” to the weak. Instead, it set up the Marshall Plan and Nato, those masterpieces of enlightened self-interest. It rebuilt Japan and Germany as pacifist democracies. The belligerent turn in American behaviour has in fact come during its relative decline.

Leadership explains some of this, in that Harry Truman was “better” than Trump, but only some. The rest is structural. It is easier for a nation to be magnanimous from a great height. Paranoia and aggression set in when that position slips. As such, we should expect a volatile US until it gets used to the role of being a, not the, superpower. Britain and France got there in the end, despite having to fall much further.

No one ever quotes the other bit of the famous Dylan Thomas poem about decline. After nagging the reader to “rage against the dying of the light”, he concedes that giving up makes more sense: “wise men at their end know dark is right.”

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Globalization, History, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(WSJ) Presidnt Trump Wants to Run the Economy Hot. There’s a Good Chance He’ll Succeed.

Most years, presidents don’t have much impact on the economy; it is just too big and complicated.

This year won’t be like most years. President Trump is taking unprecedented steps to run the economy hot, and there is an excellent chance he’ll succeed.

Washington has three big levers that affect growth: fiscal policy (taxes and spending), monetary policy (interest rates) and credit policy (the ease of borrowing). Historically, they were not coordinated: Fiscal policy followed the congressional cycle, monetary policy was set by an independent Federal Reserve and credit policy reflected often random decisions by regulators.

This year, all three are dialed toward stimulus, reflecting a single-minded focus by Trump and congressional Republicans on faster economic growth. They hope that will deliver victory in the November midterm elections.

In the process, they are compromising other goals: taming debt, Fed independence and long-term financial stability. The consequences of that come later.

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, President Donald Trump

(WSJ) Crumbling Peace Deals Show Limits of Trump’s Approach to Ending Wars

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Cambodia, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Thailand

(WSJ) Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Defense, National Security, Military, Europe, Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Russia, Ukraine

Abraham Lincoln’s 1863 Thanksgiving Proclamation

Washington, D.C.
October 3, 1863

By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

William H. Seward,
Secretary of State

Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Office of the President

The 1789 Thanksgiving Proclamation

[New York, 3 October 1789]

By the President of the United States of America. a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor — and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquillity, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted — for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions — to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually — to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed — to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord — To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and us — and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

Go: Washington

Posted in America/U.S.A., History, Office of the President

(NYT) Trump treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Raises Recession Fears, and Points Fingers at the Fed

The Trump administration is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession as it raises pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, hoping to ensure that the central bank will bear the blame for any economic weakness.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran, President Trump’s appointee to the Fed’s Board of Governors who is on a temporary leave from his job leading the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, this week struck a downbeat tone about the health of the world’s largest economy. Mr. Bessent went so far as to say some sectors were already contracting. He did not specify which sectors, but high mortgage rates have put housing and adjacent industries such as construction under pressure.

“I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession,” Mr. Bessent said on CNN on Sunday. He described the economy as being in a “period of transition” because of a pullback in government spending to reduce the deficit. He called on the Fed to support the economy by cutting interest rates.

Mr. Bessent’s remarks added to pressure on the Fed and deflected blame from Mr. Trump in case the economy does ultimately face a downturn, reinforcing a strategy that has been in place since the start of the year. As the administration has imposed aggressive tariffs on nearly all of America’s trading partners and slashed federal spending, potentially slowing growth, it has sought to pin blame squarely on the Fed in the event of an economic downturn.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump, The U.S. Government, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

(WSJ) Trump’s Tough Day at Supreme Court Puts Tariffs in Jeopardy

President Trump’s global tariffs ran headlong into a skeptical Supreme Court on Wednesday, with justices across the spectrum expressing doubt that a 1970s emergency-powers law could be read to provide the president unilateral authority to remake the international economy and collect billions of dollars in import taxes without explicit congressional approval.

But even if the court strikes down the tariffs Trump initiated on his self-declared Liberation Day last April, the justices gave little indication how they might unwind the president’s signature economic policy and favorite diplomatic tool. That left unclear whether previously paid duties would be refunded or whether Congress could be invited to step in, perhaps by ratifying the levies retroactively.

“It seems to me like it could be a mess,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said during the later stages of an oral argument that ran nearly three hours.

Solicitor General John Sauer took heat from all sides as he pressed the administration’s argument: that the president’s power to regulate foreign financial transactions when he declares an emergency includes the authority to impose tariffs. Tariffs were taxes, a majority of justices agreed, and many were dubious that Congress would so casually surrender to the executive its core constitutional power to raise revenue.

“The Constitution is structured so that if I’m going to be asked to pay for something as a citizen, that it’s through a bill that is generated through Congress,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor. “But I’m not going to be taxed unless both houses” of Congress and the president “have made that choice.”

Read it all.

Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, House of Representatives, Law & Legal Issues, Office of the President, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, Senate, Supreme Court, Taxes

(Bloomberg) Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad

President Donald Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

“TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A.,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

The ad in question comprises excerpts from an address Reagan gave in 1987 in which he defended the principles of free trade and slammed tariffs as an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices and hurts US workers.

Read it all.

Posted in Canada, Foreign Relations, Globalization, President Donald Trump

(FT) Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.

The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said. They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.

Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy came amid a fresh push by the US president to end Russia’s war following the ceasefire secured between Israel and Hamas. 

Read it all.

Posted in Foreign Relations, Military / Armed Forces, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, Russia, Ukraine

(Economist) Governments are living far beyond their means. Sadly, inflation is the most likely escape

It is….increasingly likely that governments will…resort to inflation and financial repression to reduce the real value of their high debts, as they did in the decades after the second world war. The machinery for such a strategy is in place at central banks, which have a large footprint in bond markets. Already, populists such as Mr Trump and Nigel Farage in Britain attack their country’s central banks with proposals that would weaken the defenses against inflation.

Price rises are unpopular—just ask the hapless Joe Biden—but they do not need political support to get going. Nobody voted for them in the 1970s or in 2022. When governments cannot get their act together, and run economic policies that are unsustainable, bouts of inflation just happen. By the time markets wake up, it is too late.

All the more reason to think ahead and reflect on how inflation harms the economy and society. It redistributes wealth unfairly: from creditors to debtors; from those with cash and bonds to those who own real assets such as houses; and from those who agree on contracts and wages in cash terms to those wily enough to anticipate higher prices. It causes what John Maynard Keynes called an “arbitrary rearrangement of riches”. And that could happen just as societies are grappling with other transfers of wealth that the losers will also see as unfair: in the labour market, as AI takes on routine office work; and through inheritance, as baby-boomers bequeath vast property wealth to those lucky enough to have the right parents.

This multi-pronged upheaval of fortunes could wreck the middle class, which binds democracies together, and scramble the social contract.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Globalization, History, Politics in General, President Donald Trump, The U.S. Government

(Bloomberg) Goldman Sees US Consumers Paying More Than Half of Trump Tariffs

Americans are set to pay more than half of President Donald Trump’s tariff costs as companies raise prices, according to economists of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

US consumers will likely shoulder 55% of tariff costs by the end of the year, with American companies taking on 22%, the Goldman analysts wrote in an Oct. 12 research note to clients. Foreign exporters would absorb 18% of tariff costs by cutting prices for goods, while 5% would be evaded, they wrote.

For now “US businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs” as it takes time to raise prices, economists Elsie Peng and David Mericle wrote in the note. “If recently implemented and future tariffs have the same eventual impact on prices as the tariffs implemented earlier this year, then US consumers would eventually absorb 55% of tariff costs.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Consumer/consumer spending, Economy, Office of the President, President Donald Trump, Taxes, The U.S. Government

(Economist) Donald Trump is waging war on sky-high drug prices. Can he win?

Big Pharma has a big headache: Donald Trump. Lately drugmakers have had to contend with the American president’s pronouncements on everything from vaccines to paracetamol. In the coming days the pain is set to intensify. Intent on lowering prices, Mr Trump has given leading pharma firms until September 29th to comply with an executive order to peg their prices to the lowest charged in other rich countries—a rule he calls “most favoured nation” (MFN) pricing. If they do not, he thundered, they will face “every tool in our arsenal” against “abusive drug pricing”.

At the same time, the president wants to encourage homegrown manufacturing. He plans to impose a 100% tariff on branded drugs from October 1st, unless their makers are building factories in America. His administration is also pondering additional duties under a law allowing imports to be restricted on national-security grounds.

As is often the case, the Trumpian diagnosis contains a kernel of truth. Drug prices are indeed higher in America than elsewhere in the rich world. But the president’s two-point prescription upends a model that has long underpinned the highly globalised pharma industry, which could have unintended effects. It could leave Americans with fewer medicines but not cheaper ones, while in other countries drugs could be fewer and dearer. David Ricks of Eli Lilly, the world’s most valuable drugmaker, has warned that MFN pricing risks “the worst of two worlds”, importing Europe’s sluggish innovation while keeping American prices high.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Consumer/consumer spending, Drugs/Drug Addiction, Economy, Health & Medicine, Office of the President, Personal Finance & Investing, Politics in General, President Donald Trump

(Bloomberg) Trump’s Interest Rate Obstacle Is Bigger Than Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. Achieving that objective will require overcoming bigger obstacles than Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

There are structural forces that drive the cost of borrowing, and right now they’re pointing up. Governments and businesses are piling on debt to pay for tax cuts, military spending, and AI investments — which means more demand for credit. As the Baby Boomers retire and China decouples from the US, the pool of saving to finance those loans is drying up.

Attacks on Fed independence risk shrinking the pool further. Investors don’t want to see the value of their hard-earned cash inflated away by a central bank under political control.

Add all of this together and it points to a world where 4.5% may be the new normal for ten-year Treasuries — the crucial rate for mortgages and corporate bonds, and the one Trump’s team says it wants to bring down. In fact, Bloomberg Economics analysis shows it’s more likely to trend above that figure than below it. For the world’s biggest economy, that means a wrenching transition.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Budget, Credit Markets, Economy, Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump, The U.S. Government

(NYT front page) Tariffs Are Moneymakers, But Risk Becoming a Crutch

President Trump’s extensive tariffs have already started to generate a significant amount of money for the federal government, a new source of revenue for a heavily indebted nation that American policymakers may start to rely on.

As part of his quest to reorder the global trading system, Mr. Trump has imposed steep tariffs on America’s trading partners, with the bulk of those set to go into effect on Aug. 7. Even before the latest tariffs kick in, revenue from taxes collected on imported goods has grown dramatically so far this year. Customs duties, along with some excise taxes, generated $152 billion through July, roughly double the $78 billion netted over the same time period last fiscal year, according to Treasury data.

Indeed, Mr. Trump has routinely cited the tariff revenue as evidence that his trade approach, which has sowed uncertainty and begun to increase prices for consumers, is a win for the United States. Members of his administration have argued that the money from the tariffs would help plug the hole created by the broad tax cuts Congress passed last month, which are expected to cost the government at least $3.4 trillion.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Globalization, History, Immigration, Politics in General, President Donald Trump