Key Takeaways

1. The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.  The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.
2. The IDF struck key decision-making institutions on March 3, including the Assembly of Experts building in Tehran, as part of an effort to disrupt senior decision-making. The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical body that is responsible for appointing and supervising the Supreme Leader, according to the Iranian constitution. Strikes that disrupt or prevent the Assembly of Experts from fulfilling its constitutional duty to select the next Supreme Leader would undermine the legitimacy of the regime. The regime is based on the principle of Velayat-e Faqih, in which a jurist, the Supreme Leader, controls Iran. 
3. Iranian leaders have devolved powers to lower-level officials in response to the combined force’s strikes targeting senior officials and central decision-making institutions, likely to ensure continued state functions despite disruptions to central Iranian leadership.
4. The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.
5. Iran continued to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US forces and sites in Gulf countries, which has prompted two US embassies to close.
6. The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

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NEW: The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of… pic.twitter.com/btsumD6mAY

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 4, 2026

President Donald Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish toward reducing the threat he said is posed by Tehran.

“We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that,” Trump said at a White House event on Monday about the timeline he foresaw for the campaign. “Whatever the time is, it’s OK. Whatever it takes.”

The president has faced mounting pressure to better define the goals of his extraordinary military intervention on Iran, after days of sending mixed signals about what he wanted to achieve.

Trump said that the effort, which launched on Saturday, aims to eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities, destroy the country’s navy, cut off its path to a nuclear weapon and ensure that the government “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

Notably, the president did not mention regime change as one of the campaign’s goals.

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President Trump said the US would keep up its military offensive against Iran for as long as it takes, outlining for the first time a set of four objectives he hopes to accomplish towards reducing the threat posed by Tehran. https://t.co/S3SA3Hxjku

— Bloomberg (@business) March 2, 2026

The joint attack brings war to the country for the second time in eight months and risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world.

🚨 Breaking: USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is now attacking Iran's navy pic.twitter.com/CD9rTMWucv

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) February 28, 2026

In 1973 a club of Arab petrostates held the world to ransom by halting crude-oil exports to countries they accused of supporting Israel. Petrol prices soared; Western economies buckled. Today the danger is that China will use its grip on other natural resources to achieve its aims, such as seizing Taiwan. It has already shown its power by choking off exports of rare-earth metals last year. That is why America is staging its biggest intervention in commodity markets in decades.

The battleground is the supply of “critical” metals, a group of minerals vital to making military, electrical and computing infrastructure—everything modern economies need to be safe, high-tech and green. China supplies most of these: it mines about 80% of the world’s tungsten, for instance, and refines 99% of its gallium. This is spurring America into an all-out campaign to diversify its sourcing of 60 minerals. It has pledged billions of dollars to dozens of mining projects at home and abroad, floated plans to create price floors and trade blocs, and announced a vast stockpile to cover months of national needs. The risk now is that America depends too much on its scattershot efforts—and that, in seeking control, it breaks the flexible and resilient system of market incentives that ensures the smooth functioning of the global economy.

China’s grip on critical minerals has exposed the West’s most serious strategic weakness in many years. Last April, during its trade war with America, China restricted exports of seven crucial rare earths; it targeted another five in October. Nearly a third of Pentagon procurement programmes faced the risk of shortages, as did industries from carmaking to renewable energy. The prospect of large-scale disruption prodded President Donald Trump into a trade truce with Xi Jinping, as well as a relaxation of American controls on some technology exports. Yet Mr Xi can deploy the weapon again whenever he chooses. Meanwhile, exports of rare earths for dual-use applications—the expanding grey zone between military and civilian uses—remain largely barred, sapping Western efforts to rearm….

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America is racing to break China’s chokehold on critical minerals—but its approach has flaws. It should follow three principles https://t.co/t5SkUsYgjf pic.twitter.com/BgoWViJBZv

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) February 26, 2026

A parish in Norfolk is marking the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia with a special service and a series of charitable initiatives to show its support for the Ukrainian people.

“This has been a cause really bringing people together — not just churchgoers but people across the community,” said David Styles, communications officer for the Norwich diocese.

“While some people have become desensitised after four years of war, local Ukrainians have been heartened by many messages showing they’re not forgotten.”

Mr Styles told the Church Times that St Peter’s, Sheringham, had marked the anniversary with a memorial service. It had also organised collections of clothing, medical supplies, children’s toys and fire-fighting equipment.

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A parish in #Norfolk is marking the fourth anniversary of the invasion of #Ukraine by #Russia with a special service and a series of charitable initiatives to show its support for the Ukrainian people#churchnews #churchtimes https://t.co/QznWG2TN11

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) February 24, 2026

Donald Trump’s new 15 per cent global tariff will most greatly benefit countries he has singled out for heavy criticism, including China and Brazil, data analysis shows.

An examination of the new regime by independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert found that Brazil will enjoy the biggest reduction in average tariff rates — falling by 13.6 percentage points — followed by China, with a 7.1 percentage point reduction.

Long-standing US allies including the UK, the EU and Japan will suffer the largest hit from the new levy, which the US president introduced after the Supreme Court ruled much of his previous trade policy unlawful on Friday.

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Trump’s new flat-rate tariff will boost China and Brazil https://t.co/lGsVynEEwa

— Financial Times (@FT) February 22, 2026

The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision on Friday wiping out a chunk of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime is a triumph for the Constitution’s separation of powers and the individual liberty that it protects.

The decision by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. says nothing about whether the tariffs are good or bad policy. But it recognizes that they are a major tax, and that raising revenue is a “distinct” power that belongs to Congress. There’s a reason the 18th century American revolutionary slogan was “no taxation without representation.” Taxing citizens without consent from their elected representatives is antithetical to the American project.

Congress never approved the worldwide tariffs at issue in the case. Trump told the court they were authorized by a 1977 law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. No president has used IEEPA to impose tariffs, but it contains the phrase “regulate … importation.” Trump said that was sufficient authorization for him to throw out the rest of the tariff schedules and set import taxes however he pleased.

Roberts saw the flimsiness of that reasoning. “Based on two words separated by 16 others,” he wrote, “the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time. Those words cannot bear such weight.” Indeed. The executive branch can’t be allowed to grab hundreds of billions of dollars from the American people on such a thin legal basis.

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The Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate the Trump administration’s broad tariffs strips the president of a central instrument of his foreign policy, undercutting his ability to coerce global leaders and reshape world order in his second term.https://t.co/mktSe8eQIw

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) February 20, 2026

Starting with the 2024 decision that gave President Trump substantial immunity from prosecution and continuing through a score of emergency orders provisionally greenlighting an array of his second-term initiatives, Mr. Trump has had an extraordinarily successful run before the Supreme Court.

That came to a sudden, jolting halt on Friday, when Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing for six members of the court, roundly rejected Mr. Trump’s signature tariffs program. It was the Supreme Court’s first merits ruling — a final judgment on the lawfulness of an executive action — on an element of the administration’s second-term agenda. It amounted to a declaration of independence.

It also served as another in a series of clashes between the leaders of two branches of the federal government cut from very different cloth: the controlled, cerebral chief justice and the biting, brazen president.

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The Supreme Court’s Declaration of Independence https://t.co/c3j3a7tlnQ via @NYTimes

— Luba Howard 🇺🇦 (@marynlm) February 20, 2026

About 100 US military personnel have arrived in Nigeria as Washington scales up an operation to target Islamist insurgents, a Nigerian defence spokesperson said.

US President Donald Trump has accused Nigeria of failing to protect Christians from Islamist militants in the northwest.

Nigeria denies discriminating against any religion, saying its security forces target armed groups that attack both Christians and Muslims.

Nigeria says 100 more U.S. military personnel arrive to tackle Islamists https://t.co/FWHI11SmzI https://t.co/FWHI11SmzI

— Reuters (@Reuters) February 16, 2026

European security officials believe two Russian space vehicles have intercepted the communications of at least a dozen key satellites over the continent.

Officials believe that the likely interceptions, which have not previously been reported, risk not only compromising sensitive information transmitted by the satellites but could also allow Moscow to manipulate their trajectories or even crash them.

Russian space vehicles have shadowed European satellites more intensively over the past three years, at a time of high tension between the Kremlin and the west following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For several years, military and civilian space authorities in the west have been tracking the activities of Luch-1 and Luch-2 — two Russian objects that have carried out repeated suspicious manoeuvres in orbit.

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European security officials expressed concern that the likely interceptions risk compromising sensitive information and could allow Moscow to manipulate their trajectories or even crash them. https://t.co/LLZBrsTe5V pic.twitter.com/YOVTYH7ezK

— Financial Times (@FT) February 4, 2026

 Mr. Trump is a performer, not an orator, and the rambling monologues he delivers bear little resemblance to Pericles’ tightly worded speeches. Still, even as the president repeatedly confused Greenland for Iceland, drifted into irrelevant anecdotes, and scattered inaccurate statistics, he owned the room and everyone in it. But entertaining isn’t persuading, and Mr. Trump won few hearts and minds in Davos….

The West is going through a period of deep and disruptive change, and the political establishments on both sides of the pond have been shaken to the core. More disruption is coming as the accelerating tech revolution transforms our economies and external challengers press ahead with their revisionist projects. Under the circumstances, changes within the Western alliances are unavoidable. But change doesn’t have to mean dissolution.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte seems to grasp this. Mr. Trump emerged from a meeting with Mr. Rutte following the speech to post on Truth Social that they had found the basis for a long-term agreement over Greenland that met key White House demands. For now at least, the trans-Atlantic alliance has survived.

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Trump’s speech was the hottest ticket at Davos. And thanks to Mark Rutte, the Western alliance just might survive. https://t.co/OkcyFGqmzh

— Walter Russell Mead (@wrmead) January 21, 2026

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to its original war demands against the background of expected peace talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, and falsely accused Ukraine of beginning the war by attacking Russia. Lavrov gave a speech and held a press conference outlining Russia’s foreign policy in 2025 and reiterated Russia’s commitment to addressing the so-called “root causes” of its war in Ukraine.[23] Lavrov and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly defined these “root causes” as NATO expansion and alleged discrimination against Russian people, the Russian language, and the Russian Orthodox Church (a Kremlin-controlled arm of influence) in Ukraine.

Lavrov also reiterated on January 20 the Kremlin’s rejection of any peace deal that does not cede all of “Novorossiya” to Russia and that provides Ukraine with security guarantees from Europe. Novorossiya is an invented region that the Kremlin often claims is “integral” to Russia and includes areas of eastern and southern Ukraine beyond the oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed. Lavrov explicitly rejected the US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan and listed demands inconsistent with terms in the original US-proposed 28-point peace plan, including the demand for territories that go beyond those that Russia has illegally annexed. Lavrov also rejected a possible temporary or permanent ceasefire in Ukraine because Ukraine could “then attack the Russian Federation again” — falsely accusing Ukraine of having attacked Russia in the past, whereas Russia has been the one to initiate all military aggression against Ukraine.

Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have repeatedly demonstrated that Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet Russia’s uncompromising terms or that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. Lavrov’s January 20 statements set conditions for Russia to justify to domestic audiences its rejection of any terms that emerge from talks at the Davos Summit.

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to its original war demands against the background of expected peace talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, and falsely accused Ukraine of beginning the war by attacking… https://t.co/gmPCvKZMuR pic.twitter.com/RGNWNVcPXS

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 21, 2026

Late in the afternoon of Jan. 8, angry Iranians took to the streets in large numbers nationwide—from Tehran to Isfahan to the religious city of Mashhad and dozens of smaller cities and towns—chanting and spray-painting slogans that called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and “Death to the dictator.” 

This time, the regime forces were ready to play a more lethal role in quelling the protests. Paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the voluntary Basij militia in plainclothes were deployed in large numbers across the country, often armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles. In one instance in west Tehran, security forces were seen with a heavy machine gun mounted on a pickup truck, according to footage verified by Storyful,  which is owned by Journal parent News Corp.

From her campus, Aminian headed out with a group of friends to join a protest. The turning point came around 8:30 p.m. That’s when Iranian authorities shut down the internet across the country and escalated the crackdown, according to witnesses, relatives of victims and human rights groups.

“We are pretty confident that a massacre happened starting late Thursday night throughout the country,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “It was a complete war zone.”

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‘A Massacre Happened’: The 24 Hours That Bloodied Iran https://t.co/apuKUyfYYA

— Souad Mekhennet (@smekhennet) January 15, 2026

The last time Iran was convulsed by nationwide protests, in 2022, the Arab world was transfixed. The Islamic Republic had spent decades building a network of powerful allies that came to dominate the region. Many Arabs wondered if the prospect of regime change in Tehran offered a chance to throw off Iran’s yoke in their own countries.

Pan-Arab news outlets, often funded by Gulf monarchies, egged on the protests with sympathetic, round-the-clock coverage. Arab diplomats kept their counsel in public but sounded ebullient in private. At one point Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, accused Saudi-backed media outlets of inciting further unrest and demanded that the kingdom rein in their coverage. “Otherwise you will pay the price,” he warned.

The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted. Evening-news broadcasts this month have been led, routinely, by stories other than Iran. Many officials sound nervous when they comment, if they say anything at all. Two things account for the change in tone: Iran’s diminished status, and the Gulf’s growing fear of chaos.

The Israeli wars that followed the massacre of October 7th 2023 have wrecked Iran’s network of proxies. Hizbullah, its once-powerful ally in Lebanon, has been badly weakened and still faces near-daily Israeli air strikes. Bashar al-Assad’s pro-Iranian regime in Syria is no more. Iran itself is reeling from 12 days of Israeli and American bombardment in June. As for Salami, he no longer makes threats: he was killed by an Israeli air strike at the beginning of that war.

All of this makes the fate of the Islamic Republic seem less urgent.

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The protests in Iran today arguably pose an even greater threat to the regime than those in 2022—yet the reaction in the Arab world has been surprisingly muted https://t.co/cQUYYF21oh

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) January 14, 2026

False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation. The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures.

FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.

The Washington Post reported on December 22 that a Russian official stated that a banking or non-payments crisis in Russia is possible and that they do not “want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.” A Russian academic source close to senior Kremlin diplomats told the Washington Post that 2026 will be the “first difficult year” since the start of the full scale invasion but assessed that growing economic problems will not lead to social or political problems.

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Western officials believe Putin is pressing on with his war in Ukraine partly because of flawed information he gets about the battlefield, @NastyaStognei and I write.

The rosy picture from his generals has led him to believe Russia can win outright:https://t.co/DzVErrPFXM

— max seddon (@maxseddon) December 22, 2025

President Trump vowed on Saturday to retaliate against the Islamic State after an attack in central Syria killed two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian U.S. interpreter, the first American casualties in the country since the fall of the dictator Bashar al-Assad last year.

“This was an ISIS attack against the U.S., and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. “There will be very serious retaliation.”

The soldiers were supporting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State group in Palmyra, a city in central Syria, when they came under fire from a lone gunman, according to American officials. Syrian security forces subsequently killed the gunman, American and Syrian officials said.

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3 Americans Killed in ISIS Attack in Syria, Trump Says, Vowing to Retaliatehttps://t.co/HfAjRZka0C

— Hussam Hammoud | حسام (@HussamHamoud) December 14, 2025

Chinese intelligence is continuing a massive hack of US telecom networks in a cyber campaign that allows it to access the communications of almost every American, according to a top Democratic senator. Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee who recently got a briefing on the extensive cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon”, said China was still infiltrating the US system.

“I believe they are still inside [our networks],” Warner told a Defense Writers Group event. Warner said he received a “really frustrating” government briefing with conflicting accounts about the Trump administration’s response to Salt Typhoon. According to the senator, the FBI said US networks were “pretty clean” despite contradictory evidence from several intelligence agencies.

“Other parts of our community are saying, ‘Hell no, it’s still going on’,” said Warner, who added that he had eight documents from agencies raising concerns about Salt Typhoon which has been ongoing for at least two years. “It is baffling to me that this is not a bigger issue,” said Warner, who lamented that it might take some kind of “catastrophic event” before the US government became more serious about tackling Salt Typhoon.

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US has failed to stop massive Chinese cyber campaign, warns senator https://t.co/XvpxOYEqVp

— Financial Times (@FT) December 12, 2025

As the United States leans on solar power to meet soaring energy needs, its reliance on a Chinese-made component has created a mounting security threat, according to energy industry executives and congressional investigators who warn it can be weaponized to trigger blackouts.

Research shared exclusively with The Washington Post reveals how deeply dependent U.S. power companies are on Chinese inverters. These devices are used by large solar installations to help transform energy harnessed from the sun into a current that is compatible with the power grid.

More than 85 percent of the utilities surveyed confidentially by the research group Strider Technologies are using inverter devices made by companies with ties to the Chinese government and military. Many cybersecurity experts warn that the devicesare vulnerable to hacking that can set off cascading outages.

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NEW: This one gadget could give China a back door into the U.S. power grid. Inverters are used to convert solar into electric power. Industry execs and congressional investigators warn they can be weaponized.

@evanhalper and me. https://t.co/hP9RFxmvaL

— Ellen Nakashima (@nakashimae) December 10, 2025

A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo, two conflicts President Trump claimed to have resolved, have shown the constraints of his high-speed pursuit of peace.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has leveraged the economic and military might of the U.S. to get warring parties in several deep-rooted international conflicts to the negotiating table and extract hasty peace deals.

In June, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement meant to end a three-decade-long conflict, a deal Trump administration officials said would open the Congo’s mineral-rich east to potentially billions of dollars in U.S. investment.

Weeks later, Trump threatened to suspend talks on lowering high “reciprocal” tariffs for Thailand and Cambodia if the two nations continued fighting over their disputed border. The countries’ leaders, who faced 36% tariffs on all exports to the U.S., agreed to a cease-fire days later and signed a more detailed accord at a ceremony with Trump in October.

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A new round of border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia and resurgent fighting in eastern Congo have shown the constraints of President Trump’s high-speed pursuit of peace https://t.co/k8gpJmlUyI

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 11, 2025

The arid steppes of northeastern Syria stretch almost uninterrupted to the Iraqi border, the emptiness broken only by the occasional oil derrick, until the road comes to a sprawling prison camp.

A chain-link fence topped with barbed wire surrounds the vast compound, and supply trucks line the route for more than half a mile outside the camp’s gates. This is Al Hol detention camp, where most detainees are family members — wives, sisters, children — of fighters for the terrorist group Islamic State, or ISIS. More than 8,000 fighters themselves are in prisons nearby.

For years, ISIS ruled large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq, brutally enforcing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. As Kurdish-led Syrian forces backed by the United States battled to reclaim that land, they detained thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their relatives.

U.S. forces entrusted their Syrian Kurdish allies with guarding the ISIS detainees and families. But now, the Pentagon is drawing down its troops in Syria, and there are indications that U.S. officials want Syria’s new government to take responsibility for the prisons and detention camps.

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Islamic State Camps Pose a Dangerous Problem for Syria’s Leaders

The government faces a dilemma over what to do with civil-war-era prisons and detention camps that hold thousands of ISIS fighters and tens of thousands of their family members.https://t.co/T2y5KLVeaN

— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) December 10, 2025

Japan is sailing dangerously close to the wind. The most indebted state in the world is taunting markets with one of the least justifiable plans for extra debt issuance.

The fiscal irresponsibility is perhaps no worse than in America, France or Labour’s welfare Britain, but right now it is Japan that is in the sights of the bond vigilantes.

Yields on Japanese debt have spiked wildly across the maturity curve since Sanae Takaichi took power six weeks ago and shocked investors with a “low quality” fiscal expansion of $135bn (£101bn), including such gems as rice vouchers and subsidies for fossil fuels – ploys to mask the inflationary consequences of her own policies.

The scale of this populist misadventure is sending tremors through the international financial system, as well as horrifying the economic establishment in Tokyo.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped to 1.94pc in intraday trading in Tokyo, up from 1.79pc a week ago and a whisker shy of highs last seen in 1997. The speed of the move in the once-glacial $12tn market for Japanese public and private debt is almost frightening.

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Japan’s false Thatcher is blowing up a $12tn bond market https://t.co/gLGSs085PM

— B2Investor (@B2Investor) December 5, 2025

The retiring Bishop of Leeds, the Rt Revd Nick Baines, has used his valedictory speech in the House of Lords to draw attention to the humanitarian situation in Sudan, which was, he said, “so dire that ‘urgent’ does not do justice to the need for action”.

During a debate on the topic last week, Bishop Baines, who has been one of the Lords Spiritual since 2014, described Sudan as “a country I love, where I have friends, and which I have visited a number of times”.

Its “suffering”, he said, was “almost unbearable, the worst humanitarian catastrophe on the planet. . . Whatever the causes of and motivations behind the current conflict, it is civilians — women, children, young men, and vulnerable ethnic groups — who are being targeted and abused in the most inhumane ways.”

He offered some scale of the conflict. “It is estimated that up to 150,000 people have died, and 13 million have been displaced, 9.6 million internally and 4.3 million in exile. Some 25 to 30 million people are hungry, malnourished, or severely malnourished. Save the Children estimates that 16 million children are in need of aid. . . Access to aid is frequently blocked, and funding is inadequate to the need.”

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The retiring Bishop of Leeds, the Rt Revd Nick Baines, has used his valedictory speech in the #HouseofLords to draw attention to the humanitarian situation in #Sudan, which was, he said, “so dire that ‘urgent’ does not do justice to the need for action”… https://t.co/IHsY5yMW33

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) December 3, 2025

In September, a wave of 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. The Gerbera-type drones cost as little as $10,000—so cheap that they are often used as decoys to misdirect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. NATO countered with a half-billion-dollar response force of F-35s, F-16s, AWACS radar planes, and helicopters, which shot down four of the drones with $1.6-million AMRAAM missiles.

This is a bargain compared to how challenging U.S. forces have found it to defend against Houthi forces using this same cheap tech. Our naval forces have fired a reported 120 SM-2, 80 SM-6, and 20 SM-3 missiles, costing about $2.1 million, $3.9 million, and over $9.6 million each. And this is to defend against a group operating out of the 187th-largest economy in the world, able to fire mere hundreds of drones and missiles. Our supposed pacing challenge, China, has an economy that will soon be the largest in the world and a combined national industrial and military acquisition plan to be able to fire munitions by the millions.

Even in America’s best-laid plans for future battlefields, there is a harsh reality that is too often ignored. The math of current battlefields remains literally orders of magnitude beyond what our budget plans to spend, our industry plans to build, our acquisitions system is able to contract, and thus what our military will deploy.

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"When you spend orders of magnitude more than your foe, you are in what is known as a “losing equation.” https://t.co/hUVfR4sw66 pic.twitter.com/OW3w9kuGhM

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) December 3, 2025

Europe is breathing a sigh of relief. On December 2nd Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. Many had been expecting Team Trump to sell out Ukrainian sovereignty in return for commercial deals. The risk of such an odious stitch-up now seems to have receded a bit. Thanks to pressure from European leaders and some sensible Republicans, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, some of the worst elements of a 28-point plan hatched by Mr Witkoff and his Kremlin chum, Kirill Dmitriev, have quietly been dropped. Mr Putin seems unenthusiastic about the current version. Mr Trump now says the whole thing is “a mess”. Diplomacy, like the war, will grind on.

But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong. First, another bad pseudo-peace plan could pop up. Second, even if it doesn’t, Ukraine will need solid military and financial support for the foreseeable future, and it will have to come from Europe. It is still not clear that Europeans grasp this.

When Mr Putin first launched his full-scale, unprovoked invasion, Europe did the right thing. The EU and others imposed stiff sanctions on Russia and gave military and financial aid to Ukraine, roughly matching the level of support from America. But that united front depended on the White House agreeing that territorial aggression should not be rewarded. Mr Trump has blown that consensus apart. Now, the $90bn-100bn it costs each year to support Ukraine’s war effort, a burden previously divided evenly, must be shouldered by Europe alone. The maths is brutal, as we analysed earlier this year. Until a durable peace arrives, Europe must keep paying what it did before—and then find an extra $50bn a year.

Russia may be advancing on the battlefield, but only slowly and at a huge cost in men and money…

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On Tuesday Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, held lengthy talks about Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Moscow—and not much happened. But if European governments think they are off the hook, they are wrong https://t.co/LrJSfsETpF

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 3, 2025

Putin knows he can’t defeat NATO in a head-on fight, especially given how badly the war in Ukraine has gone for Russian forces. His only hope is to defeat it politically by undermining its cohesiveness, which he tries to do all the time, said Ed Arnold, a former British army infantry officer who specializes in European security analysis for the RUSI think tank.

The U.S.’s latest peace plan would go a long way toward dividing NATO, by proposing what would amount to an amnesty for Russia for the invasion, allowing it to re-enter the G-8 club of rich countries and pursue joint economic development plans with the U.S. in areas like the Arctic.

“That would create huge divisions within the trans-Atlantic partnership,” Arnold said. “Politically, Russia is on the cusp of winning.”

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Trump’s Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO’s Future

Washington’s latest peace efforts have jolted the trans-Atlantic alliance https://t.co/C3FLsf5mXm via @WSJ

— Nino Brodin (@Orgetorix) December 2, 2025

Europe is now caught somewhere between war and peace.

In recent weeks, drones appearing mysteriously above airports and halting flights have made headlines. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.

Germany alone has three drone incursions a day on average—over military installations, defense-industry facilities and critical infrastructure points—according to a previously unreleased tally by German authorities.

Drones are part of an intensifying barrage that European leaders suspect Russia is directing at the continent over its support for Ukraine. It includes sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

“We are not at war” with Russia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said recently, “but we are no longer at peace either.”

For Russia and the West’s other adversaries, including China, Iran and North Korea, small-scale action can yield big payoffs. Moscow is bogged down militarily in Ukraine and so would struggle to engage members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in conventional combat. Instead, malicious activities that are often dubbed hybrid war or gray-zone conflict let the Kremlin challenge its adversaries without overt hostilities.

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Michael Claesson, Sweden’s chief of defence staff, told the Financial Times that Russia was combining "sabotage, special operations, even attacks against individuals" with attacks on critical infrastructure and "exploiting vulnerabilities in the information environment" in order… pic.twitter.com/Qtlm7vvZum

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 23, 2025

Chinese financial institutions have lent more than $200 billion to the United States over the past 25 years — more than they have advanced to any other country — as part of a vast global spending spree to take control of Western companies working on sensitive technologies, according to new research released Tuesday.

China discloses very little about the operations of its state-owned banks and asset managers.

But AidData, a research lab at William & Mary University in Williamsburg, Virginia, reported what it called an “unexpected and counterintuitive” finding: Between 2000 and 2023, Chinese financial institutions backed 2,500 projects — including gas pipelines and airport terminals — in almost every U.S. state.

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Chinese lenders have extended more than $200 billion to the U.S. over the past 25 years as part of a vast global spending spree to take control of Western companies working on sensitive technologies, according to new research. https://t.co/b6eB9c2Oix

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 18, 2025

President Trump’s global tariffs ran headlong into a skeptical Supreme Court on Wednesday, with justices across the spectrum expressing doubt that a 1970s emergency-powers law could be read to provide the president unilateral authority to remake the international economy and collect billions of dollars in import taxes without explicit congressional approval.

But even if the court strikes down the tariffs Trump initiated on his self-declared Liberation Day last April, the justices gave little indication how they might unwind the president’s signature economic policy and favorite diplomatic tool. That left unclear whether previously paid duties would be refunded or whether Congress could be invited to step in, perhaps by ratifying the levies retroactively.

“It seems to me like it could be a mess,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said during the later stages of an oral argument that ran nearly three hours.

Solicitor General John Sauer took heat from all sides as he pressed the administration’s argument: that the president’s power to regulate foreign financial transactions when he declares an emergency includes the authority to impose tariffs. Tariffs were taxes, a majority of justices agreed, and many were dubious that Congress would so casually surrender to the executive its core constitutional power to raise revenue.

“The Constitution is structured so that if I’m going to be asked to pay for something as a citizen, that it’s through a bill that is generated through Congress,” said Justice Sonia Sotomayor. “But I’m not going to be taxed unless both houses” of Congress and the president “have made that choice.”

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And that is a wrap on the SCOTUS arguments.

After that argument, if I were the Trump Administration, I'd be burning the midnight oil over the next couple of weeks drawing up tariff backup plans. A clear majority of the Justices appeared skeptical that IEEPA authorizes the type…

— Peter Harrell (@petereharrell) November 5, 2025

President Donald Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

“TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A.,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Based on their egregious behavior, ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

The ad in question comprises excerpts from an address Reagan gave in 1987 in which he defended the principles of free trade and slammed tariffs as an outdated idea that stifles innovation, drives up prices and hurts US workers.

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"Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad" via @dwallbank , @decloet and Hadriana Lowenkronhttps://t.co/VygvQUuiEg

— Stephanie Hughes (@StephHughes95) October 24, 2025

Donald Trump urged Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russia’s terms for ending its war in a volatile White House meeting on Friday, warning that Vladimir Putin had said he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree.

The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a “shouting match”, with Trump “cursing all the time”, people familiar with the matter said. They added that the US president tossed aside maps of the front line in Ukraine, insisted Zelenskyy surrender the entire Donbas region to Putin, and repeatedly echoed talking points the Russian leader had made in their call a day earlier.

Though Trump later endorsed a freeze of the current front lines, the acrimonious meeting appeared to reflect the US president’s shifting position on the war and his willingness to endorse Putin’s maximalist demands. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy came amid a fresh push by the US president to end Russia’s war following the ceasefire secured between Israel and Hamas. 

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Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms or be ‘destroyed’ by Russia https://t.co/AdUz5KW72A via @ChristopherJM @HenryJFoy @maxseddon @ak_mack

— Valentina Pop (@valentinapop) October 19, 2025