Flávio Bolsonaro dealt President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a bruising first-round defeat Sunday, finishing ahead of the leftist leader and putting Brazil’s right within reach of taking back power in Latin America’s largest nation.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and the eldest son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, received 47.3% of votes, short of the 50% needed for an outright victory, while da Silva got just 44.8% with 98% counted late Sunday. Other right-wing candidates won a combined 5%, leaving the 80-year-old incumbent fighting for his political survival ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff.
The result—and major victories by conservatives in concurrent congressional and state elections Sunday—underscored the strength of right-wing sentiment in Brazil that none of the major polls had managed to capture. On the eve of the vote, Datafolha had put Bolsonaro at 42% of votes against 45% for da Silva.
Brazil’s right has gained ground in recent years, fueled by anger over violent street crime, the growing political clout of evangelical Christians and frustration among businesses and middle-class voters over taxes, spending and the left’s stewardship of the economy.
Brazil’s election is another example where a right wing candidate does better than the polls suggest. That was true for Trump in 2024 and for the AfD in Germany’s recent state election. Stigma means the polls systematically undercount the right’s support. https://t.co/qd9wq29vpE
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) October 5, 2026
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