As recently as a few weeks ago, the Middle East seemed relatively calm. The principal story coming out of the long-troubled region was a positive one, the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, there looked to be hope that the U.S. and Iran were working to place an informal ceiling on the scale of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for some limited sanctions relief.
All this and more is now among the many casualties of Oct. 7, when Hamas militants stormed an unprepared Israel, killing more than 1,300 people and taking several hundred hostages. Israel has responded with aerial strikes on Gaza meant to degrade Hamas’s military capability, as well as by cutting off supplies of electricity, food, water and fuel. Israel has called on the Palestinian population to relocate away from the north of Gaza, allowing its military to act against Hamas strongholds with greater freedom and fewer civilian casualties.
The initial U.S. response to the Hamas attack was full-throated support for Israel, both rhetorically and in the provision of military aid. In just a matter of days, however, that support became somewhat more conditional, with President Biden making clear his opposition to a full-scale invasion and occupation of Gaza. During his brief visit to Israel this week, Biden called for Israeli restraint both in allowing humanitarian aid to enter Gaza and in avoiding military operations that would hurt civilians, themes reiterated in his Oct. 19 Oval Office address. The administration is clearly worried that Israel’s plans could otherwise lead to a wider war, one that at a minimum would draw down already-stretched U.S. munitions stockpiles, increase the price of oil, cause the U.S. reputational problems with much of the so-called Global South, and possibly lead to direct U.S. military involvement.
With Mideast dangers rising, the U.S. needs a two-phase diplomatic effort: first a cease-fire in Gaza, then a settlement of core Israeli-Palestinian issues, writes Richard Haass https://t.co/n7ed2G2uSq
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 20, 2023