The (England-Italy) outcome deserves to be regarded as a disappointment because there was a 50 per cent chance of victory. Italy had a 23
per cent chance, similar to the probability of Holland beating Spain. England’s good fortune was the unlikely result of Costa Rica beating Uruguay, an outcome that only had a 15 per cent chance.
Before the Italy game, England had a 77.7 per cent chance of proceeding. This has been cut almost in half, to 39.6 per cent. Much of this chance has leaked not to Uruguay (who are only on 25 per cent to go through) but to Costa Rica, who are 58.1 per cent likely.
This reduction has also taken England’s chances of winning the World Cup down to 1.2 per cent.