Then there’s over a month until the next contest, in Pennsylvania on April 22. That stretch of time could be key. It could be the moment for many of the uncommitted superdelegates to begin ratifying the choice of Democratic primary voters, and to start moving en masse to Obama.
Many of these superdelegates are elected officials. They tend to care about winning in November. The polls suggest Obama matches up better with John McCain. And the polls are merely echoing the judgment of almost every Democratic elected official from a competitive district or a swing state with whom I’ve spoken. They would virtually all prefer Obama at the top of the ticket.
All of this will move the superdelegates to Obama – perhaps as early as just after March 4, or perhaps not until April 22, or perhaps not even until the last match-up on June 7. But the superdelegates will want to avoid a situation in which they could be in the position of seeming to override the popular vote, or of resolving a bitter battle over whether and how to count votes from Florida and Michigan, at the convention.
And there are, as a final resort, two super-superdelegates (so to speak) who would have the clout to help Democrats achieve closure: Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. If they stepped forward at the right time, they would earn the gratitude of their party. And they might also enjoy contemplating a derivative effect of their good deed – the fall of the house of Clinton.
It’s truly amazing to watch how frantically conservatives praise Obama, purely out of their visceral hatred for Clinton. Thus says the Lord, “Yay, thou shalt find the House of Obama to be far, far to the left of the folks from Arkansas, and thou shalt find thyselves pining for Hillary in vain!”
“Close the door on the Clintons”, and OPEN up a brand new can of worms.
Oh, that’s a good idea..
Gloria in SC
Bill,
Speaking as a conservative, I find the policies outlined by both Clinton and Obama to be muddle-headed and harmful.
Even if Obama is farther to the left than Hillary, I, and just about every conservative I talk to would rather have him as President. I disagree with his policies, but I like him and respect him. That goes a long way.
He will not get my vote, but I could live with having him as President for four years. Hopefully, we can get a Republican majority in Congress to squelch his goofier ideas.
Four years of Hillary would be like having a hangover that never goes away.
DoW
I wouldn’t rule Clinton out yet. But what I want to know is whether any McCain people have any idea how they’d run against Obama instead of Clinton.
While I disagree with his policies, I trust Obama much more than I trust Hillary or Bill Clinton. I just hope we can have enough of a conservative presence in the Senate to squelch his plans for nationalizing health care (or further nationalizing it) and I hope we can train the Iraqi Security Forces enough so that they can maintain control after Obama pulls the US forces out of Iraq.
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
The manner in which Obama has worked with those who disagree with his policies is an exception to the uber-partisian world of US politics for the last 30 years. The manner in which he has been able to animate the energies of young people & those who gave up on voting is spectacular.
Obama’s policies on health care – lowering costs, making sure coverage is available & portable for all, strengthening the safety net for children – long past overdue. Not only for the 47 million Americans — including nearly 9 million children — who lack health insurance, but also for the rest of us who have seen health care costs skyrocket.
On Iraq, Obama was right to oppose from the very beginning this war of choice by the Bush Regime. The goal of the surge was to create space for Iraq’s political leaders to reach an agreement to end Iraq’s civil war. At great cost, our troops have helped reduce violence in some areas of Iraq, but even those reductions do not get us below the unsustainable levels of violence of mid-2006. Moreover, Iraq’s political leaders have made no progress in resolving the political differences at the heart of their civil war.
It is long past time to act from a position of strength, to hold the Maliki gov’t accountable and to return our attention to the broader war. Obama would wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on to the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world’s most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland.
#1 Bill – You are right; disgust with all things Clinton is part of what animates conservatives. But part of their (insincere) praise of Obama is the calculation that, despite current polls, he will be easier to beat in the general election, once the public becomes aware of his extreme leftiness & starry-eyed naivete. This is the [url=http://www..youtube.com/watch?v=BXCUBVS4kfQ]Obambi meets Godzilla[/url] scenario.
This strategy could backfire because, on a personal level, Obama is genuinely more likeable than Mrs Clinton, and so may not be as easy to beat as they think. But conservatives are not enamored of Mr McCain anyway, so maybe they think they have little to lose.
#6 Bob – I laugh every time I hear anyone wax rhapsodic about the “youth vote”. I remember being 18 in 1972, and hearing old-fogey liberals presume to speak about “what our young people want,” i.e., George McGovern. That year, I & nearly all my friends voted for Richard Nixon. Since then, conservatism grew because conservatives were marrying & raising children, while liberals were pursuing self-actualization & aborting babies.
Sorry, here’s another try at the link:
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXCUBVS4kfQ]Obambi meets Godzilla[/url]
wilfred,
you need to out more – the people under 35 are coming out in numbers unseen for 6 elections to vote, in large part for obama & huckabee
and be careful assuming mccain will receive the majority of conservative or born again voters – he has a lot of work to do to make that happen.
A recent poll of evangelical voters showed that global poverty is their No. 1 moral concern, followed by abortion at a far distance and then genocide. Rather than following the Ralph Reed/Karl Rove dog whistles, people of faith are looking at climate change, Darfur, U.S. use of torture and the Iraq war.
I think Obama is in surprisingly good shape at this point. That having been said, I, too, would caution against irrational exuberance on his waltzing to the Democratic nomination because one of two things is going to happen. Either the wave he is currently riding builds into a tsunami that the Democratic hierarchs can’t ignore, or he is peaking too early, giving Hillary some ballast for the primaries yet to come like Texas and Ohio and even farther down the line.
I am a registered independent, so I am watching closely but do not have a huge interest either way. I firmly believe salvation cometh not from politicians. Personally, I think Hillary is in some trouble because she has had to start using the campaign tactic of Obama ‘being all flash and no substance.’
I have had several Democratic big wigs tell me that they had hoped that if Hillary ended up with the decisive delegate count, it would have come before she had to stoop to that line of attack because the longer (and nastier) this gets, the more the Republicans can sit back and see what tactics against whomever emerges as the Nominee are the most effective. The Republicans can then in turn recycle the issues. And, of course, if the Democratic candidates get into a spending war to the bitter end, that can give McCain time to pad his war chest by simply waiting.
I have also had some Republican big wigs tell me (I am well connected as an independent centrist), that they actually hope Hillary (even though they tend to burn the Clintons in effigy) gets the nomination because they have no clue at this point how to campaign against Obama. They put all their campaigning strategy eggs into the Hillary basket, and now that that is far from certain whether she will lock up the nomination, they are beginning to get a little unhinged because they do not have a contingency plan in place yet for an Obama run in the general election.
So, we shall see what we shall see. May the best candidate win.
#6, Bob, I support Obama for all of the reasons that you enumerate. Having said that, #10, Archer, your words of caution that salvation cometh not from politicians, are highly appropriate. This week’s cover of Der Spiegel, which can be viewed at http://www.spiegel.de (you will need to scroll down a bit to find it then click on it to enlarge it) is right on the money. On it is a picture of Obama with the caption: The messiah factor, the yearning for a new America. While I support Obama, I fully realize that if he is elected in November, much of his agenda as it is presented will probably not see the light of day. I worry that many in the “movement” are setting themselves up for disillusionment when he is elected and they discover that the lion is still not lying with the lamb…
Bob, it may depend on where one “get out more.” I’m 29 and don’t know a SINGLE Obama supporter who isn’t black. Not one. The young people I know went Edwards till he dropped out (and then switched to Hilary) or tended towards Romney. I know intellectualy that the Obama supporters are out there, but I’ve not seen any of the messianic young folks stuff you go on about. Not saying it isn’t there, but beware of anecdotal evidence. Failure to support some random junior senator who happens to speak moderatly well isn’t a sign of being holed up away from people.
#12 Andrew, I am caucasian, but pushing 50.
Actually, I want the person who would be the best President to win. The best candidate does not insure the best President. We have come to a point in our political life (and we reached it some time ago) where the qualifications to get the job of President are not the same as those required to do the job of President (or Govenor, Senator, Representative, etc.).
YBIC,
Phil Snyder
#13, I was speaking mostly of the folks in my age cohort. I know of a few non-black Obama supports in “real life” but they’re mostly older folks who dislike Hilary, typicaly in their mid 60’s. I’m trying to think if any of them are more “pro-Obama” than “anti-Hilary” but none come to mind. Again, I’m sure they’re out there, but we all need to be aware that what seems overwhelming when viewed from our local perspective isn’t neccesarily the same thing as what’s true in the big picture. I’m actualy suprised at the lack of Obama supporters, as my peer group is right up his supposed alley: suburban white kids with postgraduate education. And I live in Atlanta, which he won big.
andrew717,
you may want to ask around. So far, Obama has won among 18-29 year olds in every state, garnering 67% of their votes in South Carolina, 59% in Nevada, 51% in New Hampshire and 57% in Iowa. In So Carolina, home of all things T1:9, young voters didn’t seem split by race to the extent older South Carolinians did: Obama won young white voters by 52% to Clinton’s 28%.
On Tuesday, Feb. 5, the youth turnout rate surpassed 2000 levels — the best year for comparison because there were contested primaries in both parties — across the country. In some states it tripled (Georgia) or even quintupled (Tennessee).
In an echo of Iowa, both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee were lifted to several victories with disproportionately strong support among their younger voters. In Georgia, Huckabee won voters under 30 by a wide margin, 19 points ahead of Romney and McCain. But he won voters ages 30 to 44 by a smaller margin, and he lost voters over 45.
And, continuing a trend first observed in South Carolina, white youth voters were often the only white age group to favor Obama. In the Clinton stronghold of New York, 63 percent of young white voters went for Obama, but whites over 30 voted for Clinton. Obama also carried young white 18-to-29-year-olds in Georgia but no older white age group. Among the exceptions was Tennessee, where young white voters backed Clinton.
Andrew, I also know several 20s and 30s white folks for Obama. Most of them are not entirely swept up by the messianism (which certainly is out there), but think his positive oratory a marked change over the partisanship of recent years. But things may be different out here in California, where he did not do as nearly well as he was expected to.
I think we just move in very different circles. Most of my peers who would otherwise support him are too creeped out by the whole messianic thing, not helped by the ads which are filled with doe eyed supporters more out of a boy band music video than anything else. To each his own, Lord knows rational decision making hasn’t been a part of our electoral system since, well, ever. From what I’ve read some of the Jefferson folks in 1800 were just as creepy.
I meant to say rational decision making hasn’t been the [i]dominant[/i] part of our electoral system ever.
Andres 717 – I’m in NY near CT, and Obama is very popular among the young professional European set. And several of my African American friends still stick to Hilary because they don’t think Obama is tested.
All anecdotal, of course, but apparently many young white men in CT voted for Obama….