The U.S. population will soar to 438 million by 2050 and the Hispanic population will triple, according to projections released Monday by the Pew Research Center.
The latest projections by the non-partisan research group are higher than government estimates to date and paint a portrait of an America dramatically different from today’s.
The projected growth in the U.S. population ”” 303 million today ”” will be driven primarily by immigration among all groups except the elderly.
“We’re assuming that the rate of immigration will stay roughly constant,” says Jeffrey Passel, co-author of the report.
Even if immigration is limited, Hispanics’ share of the population will increase because they have higher birth rates than the overall population. That’s largely because Hispanic immigrants are younger than the nation’s aging baby boom population. By 2030, all 79 million boomers will be at least 65 and the elderly will grow faster than any other age group.
And how is ECUSA reaching out to this new population?
Orthodox Anglicanism has a far far better chance of prosyletizing among the Hispanic population than ECUSA.
The very ‘wedge’ that ECUSA is driving into the Anglican Communion will also drive away most Hispanics.
The question is whether anyone will notice. What is the percentage of Irish? Of Italians? Of Poles? It’s called assimilation and to my eyes, the hispanics are doing it just like other groups did it before them.
Yep, just the same as we Welshmen did it!
If they assimilate, HURRAH! What I fear is ghettoization and balkanization. A good start would be to speak English.
Re #4: The degree to which prior waves of immigration were quickly assimilated has been greatly exaggerated. [i]Gangs of New York[/i] shows how the Irish lived in ghettos for decades after they immigrated to escape the 1845 potato famine. Come March 17, we will see how they remain a distinct population in many big American cities 160 years after their ancestors immigrated.
Many Germans moved into my county just north of Austin between 1848 and 1890. As late as the 1960s, there was a Lutheran school in the county conducting its primary-grade classes in German. Scandinavian immigration covered about the same period in the 19th century, yet a local Methodist church was still singing Swedish hymns on special occasions into the early 1970s. Almost all of our Czech immigration occurred before 1914, yet there is still a Czech-language newspaper published here.
The Hispanic immigrants are no different than these groups. There are certainly a lot of them, but the proportion of immigrants in the American population was almost certainly higher from 1790 to 1920 than it is now. Public concern over immigration was as heated then as it is now.
But, Dale, even though the Irish retained pride in their Heritage, when they became AMERICANS they did assimilate. to the point of forgoing allegiance to the monarch, to the ‘auld sod’, to the way of life they lived before.
After they joined the police and fire brigades, worked hard at achieving the American dream, entered politics, joined and fought for the army (during the War between the States the Irish brigades were among the most decorated), and helped conquer and settle the west. Their labor built the Erie Canal and many public works projects. They worked hard for low wages, supported America and gave back to their new country.
Yes, they assimilated. They did not try to overthrow the government, make Gaelic the official language of their ghettos, or set up separate Irish courts.
And I’m proud to have their lineage as part of my ancestry.
Oh, and please don’t pretend that movies have any sort of basis in reality. Hollywood never let fact interfere with good storytelling (or not so good, for that matter).
Thank you libraryjim. I believe that much the same may be said of German, Japanese, Chinese, Italian, and etc. immigrants. Welcome to America all! Please come legally and please assimilate. By all means, take pride in your heritage, but please have more pride in being American [United States citizens, that is].
#1
And how is ECUSA reaching out to this new population?
ECUSA has never been successful at attracting Hispanic congregants except – surprise! – among the upper classes. The lesson learned by the Diocese of West Texas (which shares a long border with Mexico) is that most Hispanics — poor, striving and middle class –who leave the RC church are attracted to the low church style of Pentecostals, Baptists, and even Methodists and Presbyterians. For most first generation Hispanic protestants, formal, liturgical worship is exactly what they aren’t seeking. It doesn’t help that even most ECUSA services I’ve attended here in low church DioWTX are often a little “higher†and formal than the relaxed RC masses popular nowadays.
#5 Don’t forget the Wends and Alsatians! Wendish and Alsatian lexicographers still visit Castroville, (just west of San Antonio) and Serbin (an hour east of Austin) to learn more about these nearly extinct languages from elderly speakers.
Heck, I have family that immigrated to Williamson County from Tennessee in the 1850s and some of them still vote Democrat! Talk about incredible cultural persistence.
(FYI My step great-grandfather saw Sam Bass shot. I’m glad to see y’all are keeping a lid on top of that sort of thing nowadays.)
There is absolutely nothing at all wrong with wanting to preserve one’s heritage. In fact, by doing so, we enrich our American society by doing just exactly that! Where else in this world of ours can you find Mexican fiestas, St Patrick’s Day celebrations, Gymanfa Ganoedd (Welsh Hymn-singing), Fasching, etc…….all in one society? We’re richer by far!
#6
It’s all a matter of perspective. As Dale pointed out, some older ethnic groups still haven’t assimilated to the degree that many (or even most) Anglophone 2nd generation Mexican American immigrants. So who’s to say is assimilated?
When I moved up “North” after having lived all my life in the same Texas county my great grandparents settled in the 1860s all those old line urban ethnics I encountered, (Italians, Irish, and Germans — especially the Irish who seemed to have a big chip on their shoulder) even though they’d been in the US for generations looked to me at times like half assimilated newcomers. Even compared to those Hill Country Germans who used to wake up my mother every morning by yelling across the yard in German because they thought it was a sin not to get up at 5am and cut the grass. And that was only 10 years ago.
Charming Billy,
My mom’s parents were from Poland. They refused to allow Polish spoken in the house (except when they thought it was just the two of them), because their children were Americans and had to learn to speak English.
Yes there are pockets of unassimilated (the Amish come to mind), but they are a rarity, and there is not the movement among them for national attention and special treatment and separation from the larger culture that the Mexican and Hispanic immigrants — legal and illegal — are demanding: No demands for bilingual forms and signage that must be available in English and Spanish or [i]”press 1 for English, dos por Español”[/i].
There is a major difference with Hispanics, and that is that many of them have NO wish to become American citizens. They come here to work, send much of their money back to family in Mexico, and plan to return once they’re ready to retire. Earlier waves of immigrants came here to stay – they were not able to get back to the old country. The situation with Mexico is VERY different – and I speak as one seeing this play out every day in southern California.
Just a quick side note: When I was in Highschool (1996-1999) I took a year of Texas history and during that time (1997) we were told that German was the 3rd most spoken language in Texas (English being number one and Spanish number two).
12 Branford, you nailed it, this is a VERY different pattern from those in our past. Also, we are now a heavily urbanized country. We don’t NEED stacks of people to carve out farms and towns from a vast, empty Midwest and West. My ancestors were brought to the States 125 years ago because they signed on to start a farm; which they did. Most of our country is terribly overpopulated right now; the last thing we need is more people!
We need to drastically slow down the immigration rush (legal and illegal) which is using our resources, straining our schools, health system and infrastructure, as well as driving down wages for too many working-class citizens.
Please bear with me, this is a long comment.
#2 Words Matter: I agree with you, the Hispanic population [b]is[/b] assimilating and by the time these statistics are in effect they really won’t matter. Since we are in the midst of this large wave of immigration it just seems overwhelming; we don’t have the perspective of time.
S&TofN;: Ghettoization and balkanization is inevitable at first as has been the pattern with all immigrant groups (as Dale Rye and Charming Billy pointed out). The process has already been completed with the older Hispanic populations but the current influx has not had time to adapt. When I was in grade school my class was about half Hispanic and the majority could not speak Spanish beyond a few phrases because my school drew from the established neighborhoods (we actually had Anglos who spoke better Spanish because of Mexican nannies). When I got to high school there were more first-generationers and the process was more mixed but the vast majority had fully assimilated. There was also a distinct group of ESL (English as a Second Language) kids that did not really mix well with the established Hispanics or population at large. Those ESL kids I grew up with from grade school had pretty much integrated by high school and it was just those newly arrived who self-segregated.
#11 libraryjim: My mother’s family was similar in that they only allowed their children to learn English. My father’s family was more established so English just naturally predominated over time. The net result was Hispanic families that can’t speak Spanish. I agree that the demand for bilingual stuff is excessive (Spanish voting ballots goes too far) but similar accommodations are made for other language groups with large populations (lots of Asian language materials in CA). In fact, contrary to the caricature, Ellis Island employed large numbers of translators to accommodate all the immigrants who did not speak English. This too shall pass.
#12 Branford has a very good point; there is a qualitative difference between those immigrants (Hispanics included) who immigrate to stay and those just looking to work and then return. I witness similar attitudes from people from other nations who come to America to vacation, particularly Canadians (as the bumper sticker says: [i]If it’s Snowbird season, why can’t we shoot ‘em?[/i]). We should also not discount the collusion of the Mexican government in the protests and demands as well as the “usual suspects†leftist “useful idiots†who advocate for anything not-American ([i]Chicanos Por La Causa[/i] is my particular bane; they and their sycophantic worship for the Hispanic Jimmy Hoffa, [i]Cesar Chavez[/i]). The Mexican government aids illegal immigration (including consular support) as a policy to help alleviate the poverty resulting from their corruption. It is ridiculous that a country that blessed with resources has such poverty. If it wasn’t off-topic I’d go into a tirade about how most of the world’s poverty is directly the result of governmental corruption.
I’ll end this comment by whole-heartedly endorsing Cennydd’s #9; America is truly made better by the mix of cultures and heritage. The food has particularly benefited (I mean, what did the English have to offer other than steak & kidney pie?). My best-bud’s dad (from Hong Kong) says that America is not a melting pot but a stew; where all the different ingredients remain but enhance the flavor of the whole.
#2 i haven’t seen that many who really wish to assimilate. they have no particular desire to be american; remember the demonstrations last year where illegals were demanding rights whilst waving the mexican flags high in the air. of course they wish to be here because we give them benefits while they contribute only cheap labour. imho, if the government would push procreation by the citizens who are here legally the population wouldn’t be in such a fix.
Little Cabbage: What is with this death-wish fantasy called [i]overpopulation[/i]? ‘Taint no such animal. If anything, America is [i]under-populated[/i], just ask India or China. All joking aside, America’s native birth-rate is on par with the dying nations of Western Europe. It’s no wonder that this article points out America’s aging native population. Why do you think Social Security is in such a mess; that pyramid scheme doesn’t have a sufficiently large base (population) to support itself.
Here in AZ (and you Texicans and Califor-nye-aye-ans can attest to it as well) there is a HUGE problem with healthcare, schools, and crime due to illegal immigration. The problem is not overpopulation, even in the heavily urbanized areas (after all there’s still a need for maids, etc.). Cutting off the flow of immigration (legal and illegal) will only serve as a stop-gap measure (pun intended) until the fundamental causes are addressed. Immigrants are an easy scapegoat but you might want to look into bureaucratic inefficiency, economic and demographic changes, as well as socialistic ideas.
#1 AnglicanFirst: Why should TEC or Anglicans and Protestants for that matter “[reach] out to this new population?†Such a question seems to betray a very Protestant bias similar to the Baptist missionaries I know who are working hard to convert the heathen Catholics of the Philippines. You specifically advocate for “prosyletizing[sic]†a population that is already Christian (unless of course you think the Pope is Antichrist). #8 Charming Billy is right when he says that Hispanics who leave the Church for Protestantism go more for “low church style†worship; after all what does Anglicanism have to offer over the Catholic Church other than permissive divorce?
I apologize to my Anglican fellow-Christians who might have been offended by that last remark but such attitudes really rile me up (my apology to AnglicanFirst as well if I am misreading you). If you want to reach out to the “un-churched†or nominal Christians than that is fine but to advocate apostasy is going too far. I know that you Protestants have a different ecclesiology so that switching denominations is not that big a deal but to us Catholics to leave Holy Mother Church is a grave matter. Hispanics are predominantly Catholic (despite some Protestant inroads), this is not a pagan society you are talking about but Christians. That is the same sort of colonizing attitude that native Christians in the Middle East and other parts of the world complain about from overzealous Protestant missionaries who treat them as if they were worse than pagans. Like I said, this subject really riles me up. I am aware that Hispanics are not monolithically Catholic so there are still some to be converted but still.
(Mexico and Latin America are complicated and diverse places. Squalid poverty exists next to decadence and secularism to rival that of any Western European nation. Those nations also have histories tainted by anti-clericalism that makes Revolutionary France look like medieval France and now Marxism. There is room for evangelization and I’m all for missionary aid but keep in mind that for the most part you are dealing with fellow Christians.)
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5871651411393887069
I think it would be very helpful to this discussion for folks to view the above video. It is called “Immigration Gumballs”. If that link does not work, just Google the title. The above video is about 17 minutes long and provides a visual representation of the implications of our current LEGAL immigration policies.
Take a look. It is, I think, extremely illuminating.
Too much traffic; too much smog; too little water; concrete and suburbia covering some of the finest farmlands in the world (one example: California’s Central Valley); pollution of our waters because of runoff from suburban development, pesticide use and golf course herbicides (example: Chesapeake Bay); dwindling natural resources; strains on law enforcement, schools, and our tottering health care system. The root cause: TOO MANY PEOPLE. Our leaders need to close the immigration spigot and secure our borders.
Any comparison with the 19th century is problematic, no matter which way you interpret it. The situations, culture, and economy are different now than they were. There is also a significant difference in that European immigrants had an ocean between them and home, immigrants from Mexico and Central America do not. The old guard Americans were concerned that Irish and Eastern and Southern European immigrants would not adapt, and that they would completely change the country. Most did adapt (though there are examples on this thread of the contrary), but it completely changed the country anyway.
I do think Little Cabbage has a point in one respect. The accepted political orthodoxy is that immigration is good and necessary for America and is too integral to who we are as a nation to be stopped. I for one think it is worth questioning whether or not that is the case. Would slowing the pace necessarily be bad? Is there a limit to how much population this country can usefully support (especially in the West, where water really is an issue – we either have to look at innovative solutions like desalinization or we have to stop growing at some point, one or the other)? And can we divorce these questions from concerns about racism against Hispanic people and culture? I don’t know what the answers are, but I think these are questions worth debating. But such debate is usually immediately shut down by politicians and academics not even willing to entertain the ideas or their fallout, usually with the charge of racism (an effective charge because it is partly true). To do so means working out tough questions that we ignore at our peril.
I’ve been thinking about this “assimilation” thing all day, and I think it’s something different from that great American idol “integration”. It’s not about language or ethnic enclaves. I think that assimilation is something like folks just being here without it being a big freaking deal. It’s about people having access to the goods of this country – education, jobs, homes – on their own terms, or rather on their own terms as negotiated within the larger community. Yes, it’s the “stew” thing, rather than the “melting pot” thing. I’ll go a step further and say that I don’t believe the American experiment is really about becoming a unitary culture, white or otherwise and assimilation can never rightfully entail a loss of cultural specifics, although they will certainly change over time in the new environment.
God forbid it should require a loss of the wonderful specialties of each ethnic group. I happened to go to college in that Swedish community Dale Rye describes and have fond memories of a Christmas table groaning with Swedish pastries and breads. The town was Methodist with a capital “John Wesley” – 7 congregations – and “Lord’s Acre bazaars were pastry heaven. My white family has taken to having tamales with our Christmas dinner, which may reflect on the hispanic branch of the family, or may just be due to our liking tamales. No big deal.
Of course the incorporation of multiple cultures into one society is not quick or easy. Welcome to the real world. I may have told this, but I’m still laughing about the day I was getting a wonderful American hamburger in the little gas station/deli by the office. While the young hispanic guy made my burger and fries, I watched an Arab soap opera (or it may have been a music video) on the TV. As a black customer left, the Arab clerk yelled “hasta la vista”. 50 years ago, my dad owned that service station. I think they had a radio, but you didn’t hear arabic on it. Is this “assimilation” or “multi-culturalism”? I don’t think I would dignify it with either high flown title, but would rather call it “lunch”. Here’s the not-easy part: I was over there getting lunch today and a gang kid – or worse, gang wannabe – came in, obviously hopped up and I was checking the escape routes if he pulled out the gun I’m sure he was carrying.
FWIW, hispanic Episcopal parishes are doing rather well. I’m familiar with the first two of the parishes below. Both are in working-class neighborhoods that aren’t really growing. I looked at several other parish charts and they all seem to be generally growing. San Mateo, Houston (actually Bellaire) I’ve know for 35 years. They’ve had a bit of a reverse the past year or two, but I can tell you that the parish nearly closed before being reorganized for hispanic service maybe 15 years ago.
Iglesia San Juan Apostol,
Iglesia San Mateo, Houston, TX
Iglesia San Miguel, Fort Worth, TX
Well, enough of this. If you are in San Antonio in June, though, try to hit the Texas Folklife Festival. If it’s as good as it used to be, you’ll see real multiculturalism, not the elitist, pretentious kind, but the kind that comes with good food, interesting history and fascinating entertainment.
#22
Yes, there are healthy Hispanic ECUSA parishes. However, Assemblies of God, SBC, etc. still do better among Mexican Americans. Mexican-Americans generally aren’t interested in what ECUSA has to offer.
We’ve started having tamales for Xmas, too. It’s just inevitable after awhile.
PS What college are you talking about?
Words,
You forgot one thing:
Assimilation also means giving back as well as taking.
This is kind of off-topic…but does anyone have any opinions as to the easiest, quickest, most usable way of learning to speak and read Spanish?
Alta (post 21): Thanks for the thoughtful post. Yes, the ‘racist’ charge too effectively closes discussion of this crisis.
Little Cabbage,
Very true, I’ve seen this attempted on tv, particularly with Lou Dobb’s ‘town hall meetings’ where often one of the first speakers will be someone with a heavy hispanic accent who tries to derail the meeting with charges of racism, bigotry, nationalism, etc. The speaker often has to be escorted out, crying “see? you are proving my point!”
um, by “speakers”, I mean a person recognized in the audience during open question time. Not someone from the discussion panel.
Has anyone viewed the video [i]Immigration Gumballs[/i]? I think it would inform this discussion greatly.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5871651411393887069
S&T;,
Why not just give us a short summary and conclusion? Not all of us have time to view all the videos to which we are directed.
By the way, have YOU seen any of the Lou Dobbs’ townhalls on CNN (I think) on this subject as well?
By the way, at work I’m not allowed to view the videos, at home my connection is too slow.
Yes, I have seen some of the Lou Dobbs programs. I think they were very interesting.
Synopsis of Immigration Gumballs
The legal immigration issue is examined from an environmental and fiscal resources perspective. Author Roy Beck uses graphs and gumballs to illustrate the mathematical realities we face because the immigration rate significantly exceeds our population replacement rate.
From 1925 to 1965 (when congress changed the law), legal immigration averaged 178,000 per year.
From 1965 to 1989, legal immigration averaged 507,000 per year.
In the 1990s, legal immigration averaged over 800,000 per year.
Current legal immigration exceeds 1 Million per year.
Legal immigration (that exceeded replacement rate immigration) doubled the US population from 1970 to 1990. The entire infrastructure is now loaded with double the people we had in 1970. That means more schools, crowded highways, more housing built, more energy used, more power lines, less farmland, etc.
The mathematical certainty of geometric progression is demonstrated to be absolutely unsustainable. We cannot…CANNOT…pay for this growth. Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, hospital emergency rooms, education, water…all of these things cannot be sustained at this rate of growth.
This insane and unsustainable rate of growth (remember, this is just the legal immigration, not including the 20 Million illegals) makes no impact on world poverty. Using Mexican immigrants as the benchmark for impoverished immigrants, because their annual income is about 1/10 that of a US citizen, there are 4.5 Billion people in the world that are poorer than Mexican immigrants. We take a Million a year and every year another 80 Million people in poverty are added to the world’s population. We are not reducing world poverty by the insane, unsustainable immigration rate that we have.
Folks can download free copies of Roy Beck books here:
http://www.numbersusa.com/about/books.html
They are in pdf format.
Southwestern University in Georgetown, Billy. When I went there in 1970, St. John’s Methodist had only changed their services from Swedish to English not too many years before.
LibraryJim – thanks for the addition. Of course, life being a give-and-take proposition, assimilation. That’s the “negotiating” part I mentioned above.
S&T;,
Thanks!