Some 12-16 named storms are expected, 6-9 of them hurricanes. 2-5 hurricanes are predicted to be major hurricanes.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says near or above normal '08 hurricane season
Posted in * General Interest
What, are they just playing a recording over and over each year?
So far for the past two years they have been (thankfully) waaaay off as the storms that have formed have been less numerous and less powerful than previous years.
Actually, LJ, last year set a record with two land-falling Cat 5 hurricanes (Dean & Felix). So there WERE powerful storms last year. But they did not hit the Continental US, and the areas they did hit were thankfully generally not heavily populated. Had Dean slammed into Miami rather than the Mosquito Coast it would have been another Andrew. As it was, the Mexican gov’t did an amazing job evacuating villages and saving thousands of lives.
But yes, it does seem pretty crazy to do these “forecasts” each year when they are often so inaccurate. So many of the variables that will influence storm formation are not even in place until June or later (whether there is a Bermuda high, whether there is a dry “Saharan” air mass in the Caribbean, or a prevailing pattern of wind-shear, etc.)
I’m sure coming up with the “predictions” are a useful scientific exercise for refining computer forecast models, etc., but I don’t think they should be publicized by NOAA or NHC and thus given any appearance of legitimacy. Those of us in hurricane zones should prepare EVERY season as if we expect a major hurricane to hit our area.
It’s Katrina. Since then, hurricanes have become politized. So there are HUGE forecasts which don’t usually pan out. And last year, just so that the number of named storms are closer to the forecasts, they started naming SUBTROPICAL storms.
#3 Flaanglican, any storm with sustained winds of tropical storm force or greater gets a name, whether it is fully tropical or subtropical. It’s been that way for decades.
Spiffy.