Appearances can be deceiving. Six months ago, when Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated as Russia’s new president, many hoped there would be a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations.
The soft-spoken lawyer has never worked for the KGB. His reputation as a liberal seemed to contrast sharply with his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.
However, for the past six months it seems that President Medvedev has been working hard to dismantle his liberal image and revive memories of the Cold War.
Putin had a reputation for being tough, but it was under Medvedev that Russia used excessive force against Georgia, occupying part of its territory and crushing its military. Medvedev then defied world opinion by accusing the United States of instigating the war and by recognizing the independence of Georgia’s two separatist regions.
Despite what CBS reports, I don’t think many people really thought Putin’s “successor” would be free to be different even if so inclined.
I think it is well known that Medvedev presidency was structured so Putin could remain in power. There is very little that lasts “forever.” Russia has replaced the Soviet Union and is aggressively pursuing a new Cold War. By the same token there is a resilliency to American democracy and capitalism that most foreigners fail to understand. Our economy and reputation are in temporary decline (although with significant concerns about the incoming administration). I don’t think we are looking at the dawn of a Pax Russia just yet.
Russia would like to be a world power again, but has a single revenue economy (oil) which it is rapidly overproducing. It’s military is old and obsolete and struggled during their ‘tune-up’ war with Georgia against a vastly smaller and under equipped enemy. Their navy limped to Venezuela (11 days late) and isn’t even a shadow of the 2nd rate power they used to be. But the Russians are chess players and they will continue to move their pieces around the board until they are victorious or forced out of the game again. This movement of tactical nuclear weapons to the Polish boarder is such a move. The missile shield in Poland in no way threatens Russia, but becomes the excuse to challenge the U.S. and particularly the incoming Obama regime.
Putin holds all the power cards in Moscow. The present President is a pretty figurehead for Putin’s Neo-Stalinism.
RevK, your assessment is fairly accurate. The state of Russia’s navy is deplorable; their once-large submarine fleet, for example, is rusting at their docks or has been broken up for scrap, and what submarines you DO see are the best of what’s left. Russia’s much-vaunted tanks…..the T-54s and T-74s…..are pieces of junk not fit to be on the same battlefield with the best Western armor; the First Gulf War proved that. Their Air Force is little more than a flight demonstration squadron like our Thunderbirds, their servicemen haven’t been paid in months, the last I heard, and their morale is in the tank. Still, the Russian Bear is stirring, but what I’ve seen so far is little more than saber-rattling bluster……the sideshow in Georgia notwithstanding.