Most Americans believe the United States is declining in global power and influence, and nearly two-thirds say China’s power now equals or exceeds that of the United States, according to a nationally representative poll designed by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace scholars.
A majority of the Americans surveyed thought the United States is one of several powerful countries rather than the most powerful nation. Nearly three-quarters expected China to overtake the United States in power and influence at some point. Almost half, 47 percent, said China has already surpassed the United States or will do so within the next five years.
Respondents wanted the United States to be a formidable power in almost every world region. If China overtook the United States in power and influence, they would view that development negatively. At the same time, a solid majority—62 percent—said their lives would not get worse if China gained more power than the United States. This striking finding casts doubt on whether the American public would be willing to bear significant costs to maintain a power position superior to China’s.
Very few of the Americans polled said U.S. global power and influence was unimportant to them. Millennial and Gen Z respondents, however, were less fervent and more ambivalent about the value of American power than older generations. Meanwhile, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to see the United States as one of multiple powerful nations and as being in decline. Most Democrats thought their lives would not get worse if China surpassed the United States in power and influence, whereas most Republicans thought their lives would get worse.
There's this view that Americans are provincial 'America Fuck yeah!' types. The elites are, but the voters aren't. Most Americans think that China is more technologically advanced than the U.S. https://t.co/wWzyrCjn5h pic.twitter.com/LCmtDtPrNn
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 27, 2026
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