(Bloomberg) T. Rowe Raises Prospect of 6% Treasury Yields on Fiscal Risk

Treasury 10-year yields may climb to 6% for the first time in more than two decades as US fiscal woes worsen and Donald Trump’s policies help keep inflation elevated, according to T. Rowe Price.

The benchmark yield may first reach 5% in the first quarter of 2025 before potentially climbing further, Arif Husain, chief investment officer of fixed-income, wrote in a report. Husain is doubling down on calls for higher yields, citing persistent US budget deficits as Trump cuts taxes during his second presidency, as well as potential tariffs and immigration policies that would sustain price pressures.

“Is a 6% 10‑year Treasury yield possible? Why not? But we can consider that when we move through 5%,” wrote Husain, who helps the money manager oversee $187 billion. “The transition period in US politics is an opportunity to position for increasing longer‑term Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve.”

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10-Year Treasury Yield may soar to 6%, warns T. Rowe Price. The last time this happened? 2000.

Probably Fine pic.twitter.com/NF2XJj27uS

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