Washington, D.C.
October 3, 1863

By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the United States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

William H. Seward,
Secretary of State

#AbrahamLincoln helped establish #Thanksgiving as a national holiday to be celebrated on the last Thursday of November. #AbeSays

We hope you have a healthy, happy holiday!

Source: https://t.co/nGWvipD9Q5 pic.twitter.com/Ao0gOHRcew

— Lincoln Presidential Library (@ALPLM) November 28, 2024

[New York, 3 October 1789]

By the President of the United States of America. a Proclamation.

Whereas it is the duty of all Nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey his will, to be grateful for his benefits, and humbly to implore his protection and favor — and whereas both Houses of Congress have by their joint Committee requested me “to recommend to the People of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many signal favors of Almighty God especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness.”

Now therefore I do recommend and assign Thursday the 26th day of November next to be devoted by the People of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being, who is the beneficent Author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be — That we may then all unite in rendering unto him our sincere and humble thanks — for his kind care and protection of the People of this Country previous to their becoming a Nation — for the signal and manifold mercies, and the favorable interpositions of his Providence which we experienced in the course and conclusion of the late war — for the great degree of tranquillity, union, and plenty, which we have since enjoyed — for the peaceable and rational manner, in which we have been enabled to establish constitutions of government for our safety and happiness, and particularly the national One now lately instituted — for the civil and religious liberty with which we are blessed; and the means we have of acquiring and diffusing useful knowledge; and in general for all the great and various favors which he hath been pleased to confer upon us.

And also that we may then unite in most humbly offering our prayers and supplications to the great Lord and Ruler of Nations and beseech him to pardon our national and other transgressions — to enable us all, whether in public or private stations, to perform our several and relative duties properly and punctually — to render our national government a blessing to all the people, by constantly being a Government of wise, just, and constitutional laws, discreetly and faithfully executed and obeyed — to protect and guide all Sovereigns and Nations (especially such as have shewn kindness onto us) and to bless them with good government, peace, and concord — To promote the knowledge and practice of true religion and virtue, and the encrease of science among them and us — and generally to grant unto all Mankind such a degree of temporal prosperity as he alone knows to be best.

Given under my hand at the City of New-York the third day of October in the year of our Lord 1789.

Go: Washington

In 1789, President George Washington, on behalf of Congress, issued a Thanksgiving Proclamation designating Thursday, November 26, as a national day of "public thanksgiving and prayer." ⁣

Learn more: https://t.co/j84NeR2rPH pic.twitter.com/U8R1YqjYDX

— Mount Vernon (@MountVernon) November 28, 2024

Some time ago, I found myself sitting at a dinner opposite a Labour peer. We chatted over various things as the evening proceeded. Just before we were getting up to leave a new topic came up. “I am a convinced campaigner for assisted dying,” she said. “As a bishop, I suspect you’re not. Why don’t you think we should do it?” Put on the spot, struggling to know what to say, and knowing I probably had one line to deliver as we stood up to leave, I said something like this: “Life is a gift from God. It’s not up to us to decide when it ends.” She looked across at me with a pitying look and walked away, clearly unconvinced.

I’ve often wondered what I should have said. Lord Falconer suggests that only secular people like him are ‘objective’ and religious people like me or Shabana Mahmood are biased and therefore our views are to be discounted. The idea that his secular perspective is not colouring his views, but that our religious ones are, or that he is not imposing his beliefs on others whereas we are, is of course, as Isabel Hardman has argued, philosophical nonsense.

Our religious beliefs shape our views, as his secular views shape his. The question is which perspective gives us a better, healthier and more coherent way of living together. I spoke recently to a key figure in the Church of England’s response to Assisted Dying who told me in no uncertain terms that religious arguments simply don’t wash in this debate. We have to use pragmatic and political ones that appeal to a wide audience. And so, the main arguments we have heard from church leaders and others against assisted suicide refer to the slippery slope argument: that legislation will inevitably in time become looser to include more candidates; care for the vulnerable, such as the elderly or the disabled who will feel pressurised into taking their own life, or, as the Health Secretary Wes Streeting has argued, the fact that palliative care is not yet robust enough in our health system to enable a proper choice.

Read it all.

My thoughts on why religion matters in the assisted dying debate https://t.co/SJBK4fUI3B

— Graham Tomlin (@gtomlin) November 27, 2024

Scott Bessent spent the past 40 years studying economic history. Now, as Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Treasury Department, he has the chance to make his mark on it.

As a hedge-fund manager, first at George Soros’s firm and later at his own, Bessent specialized in macroinvesting, or analyzing geopolitical situations and economic data to wager on big-picture market moves. He generated billions of dollars in profits betting on and against currencies, interest rates, stocks and other asset classes around the world.

He was motivated to step out from behind his desk and get involved with Trump’s campaign in part because of a view that time is running out for the U.S. economy to grow its way out of excessive budget deficits and indebtedness.

Read it all.

Scott Bessent Sees a Coming ‘Global Economic Reordering.’ He Wants to Be Part of It. ⁦@WSJ⁩ https://t.co/qkvP5PVnVG

— Jennifer Ablan (@jennablan) November 25, 2024

As if lawmakers needed any other reasons to take America’s fiscal health seriously, the gross national debt of the United States has now officially reached $36 trillion. We started 2024 by crossing the $34 trillion threshold, added another trillion during the summer, and now we’re heading into the holidays with yet another trillion. Government borrowing is becoming as certain as the changing of the seasons these days.

It’s often said that the more times you say a word over and over, the more it starts to lose its meaning. With so many trillion-dollar debt milestones in recent years, it’s easy to forget that each of them has real-world consequences.

But rising debt poses serious domestic and geopolitical risks: it slows our economy, threatens higher inflation and interest rates, and squeezes our budget through higher interest rates. And it hampers our ability to be flexible in responding to recessions and disasters at home and foreign crises abroad.

And the future trajectory looks bleak as well.

Read it all.

🚨Federal debt has officially breached $36 trillion, as projected 4 days ago, w/ Treasury borrowing $61 billion yesterday; we're in serious trouble and our nation's finances are falling apart… https://t.co/iekNG1US1W pic.twitter.com/zPzJJlBYGC

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 22, 2024

Iran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge for the incoming Trump administration.

Iran’s decision to expand its stockpile of nuclear fuel and its failure to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, which monitors Tehran’s work, is set to trigger fresh diplomatic pressure from Europe.

Concerns are growing in Western capitals that Iran could decide to develop a nuclear weapon, after comments by senior Iranian officials that Tehran has mastered most of the techniques for doing so. Israel’s hollowing-out of Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy in the Middle East, has also prompted a public debate in Iran about whether the country’s best form of deterrence lies in having an atomic bomb.

Iran has always claimed that its nuclear work is solely for peaceful civilian purposes.

Both the incoming Trump administration and Tehran have sent mixed messages about whether they will seek confrontation or some kind of diplomatic engagement after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Read it all.

The accurate take: Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear weapons program since Biden took office. It is now feigning restraint in anticipation of Trump’s return and Israel’s military achievements, which exposed Khamenei’s vulnerabilities. https://t.co/19MFSUDgm0

— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) November 19, 2024

A colation of Christian organisations has written an open letter to high-street banks in the UK, calling on them to stop financing new fossil-fuel extraction or risk losing their business.

The letter, published on Tuesday, is signed by the former Archbishop of Canterbury Lord Williams, the Methodist Church in Britain, the Scottish Episcopal Church, the Quakers, and several Roman Catholic religious orders. It opposes the $556 billion that Barclays, HSBC, Santander, NatWest, and Lloyds have reportedly provided to the fossil-fuel industry since the Paris Climate Agreement was signed in 2015.

Lord Williams said: “Banks are very understandably seen as institutions we need to be able to trust. What we are asking is that the main high street banks should show themselves to be fully worthy of that trust by playing their part in creating a future we can trust, a future in which our lethal dependence on fossil fuels will at last be put behind us.”

Read it all.

A coalition of Christian organisations has written an open letter to the UK’s high street banks, calling on them to stop financing new fossil fuels or risk losing their business https://t.co/d8hfnnyPUS

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) November 19, 2024

Until recently, the Russian government had cushioned the economy from higher borrowing costs. A variety of schemes made it easier for households to suspend debt payments and for firms to borrow at lower subsidised rates, with the government stepping in to compensate banks for lost income. There are signs, though, that such programmes are becoming unaffordable. A mortgage-subsidy scheme, which had allowed borrowing at a cost of just 8% when official rates were much higher, ended on July 1st. Mortgage volumes halved in the following month. Corporate bankruptcies have risen by 20% this year. The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, a trade body, reckons investment plans for next year are being put on hold owing to heavy borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates will crimp spending by both firms and consumers. The IMF expects Russian economic growth to slow sharply to 1.3% next year. Even VEB, the state-run development bank, has cut its growth estimate to 2%. A combination of lower investment and manpower lost to the front is taking a toll. The need to maintain the value of the rouble to pay for crucial imports is a vulnerability for Mr Putin, and one which could soon take a toll on his ability to fight. He may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end. Waging a 3% war is one thing; a 21% war is quite another. 

Read it all.

Russia’s economy has confounded analysts since the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Now, however, Vladimir Putin may be hoping that Donald Trump keeps his promise to bring the conflict to an end https://t.co/EQL3wCoHSh 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 20, 2024

From the recalibration of military strategy to the reconstitution of diplomacy, artificial intelligence will become a key determinant of order in the world. Immune to fear and favor, AI introduces a new possibility of objectivity in strategic decision-making. But that objectivity, harnessed by both the warfighter and the peacemaker, should preserve human subjectivity, which is essential for the responsible exercise of force. AI in war will illuminate the best and worst expressions of humanity. It will serve as the means both to wage war and to end it.

Humanity’s long-standing struggle to constitute itself in ever-more complex arrangements, so that no state gains absolute mastery over others, has achieved the status of a continuous, uninterrupted law of nature. In a world where the major actors are still human—even if equipped with AI to inform, consult, and advise them—countries should still enjoy a degree of stability based on shared norms of conduct, subject to the tunings and adjustments of time.

But if AI emerges as a practically independent political, diplomatic, and military set of entities, that would force the exchange of the age-old balance of power for a new, uncharted disequilibrium. The international concert of nation-states—a tenuous and shifting equilibrium achieved in the last few centuries—has held in part because of the inherent equality of the players. A world of severe asymmetry—for instance, if some states adopted AI at the highest level more readily than others—would be far less predictable. In cases where some humans might face off militarily or diplomatically against a highly AI-enabled state, or against AI itself, humans could struggle to survive, much less compete. Such an intermediate order could witness an internal implosion of societies and an uncontrollable explosion of external conflicts.

Read it all.

In our book Genesis we talk about all of the impacts of AI. One of the biggest impacts is on the conduct of war and national security: https://t.co/wv1CHGJdLn

— Eric Schmidt (@ericschmidt) November 20, 2024

The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.

By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic “whale” known only as Théo.

Trump’s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Théo’s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Election Day that “Prediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,” giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls showed the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver wrote on election morning: “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,” thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.

Nope.

Read it all.

“How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024.” Did you know that betting on elections is older than opinion polls? And why it’s more likely to predict the result? My latest for ⁦@WSJ⁩ with ⁦@mrinconcruz⁩. https://t.co/GqYQP2MmJo

— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) November 15, 2024

European and NATO officials acknowledge that talk of territorial concessions no longer raises as many eyebrows as it once did, and diplomats frame it not as “land-for-peace” but rather as land for Ukraine’s security.

“I think everybody has more or less reached this conclusion. It’s hard to say it publicly because it would be a way of saying we are going to reward aggression,” said Gérard Araud, a former French ambassador to Washington.

“It’s certainly not fringe anymore,” said a Western official who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

It’s unclear exactly what a deal might look like, as diplomats weigh blueprints of “peace plans” floated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With Russian forces in control of roughly a fifth of the country — including in the eastern Donbas region and the annexed Crimean Peninsula — freezing today’s front lines or outlining a demarcation line would mean Ukraine ceding swaths of its territory.

Read it all.

Ukraine’s European allies eye once-taboo ‘land-for-peace’ negotiations https://t.co/OHvlOH5hyT

— Earl Anthony Wayne (@EAnthonyWayne) November 14, 2024

After years of internal strife, it was a dispute about economic policy that finally toppled the German government. Now Europe is facing months of political paralysis just as its many simmering crises are coming to a boil.

With both France and Germany led by minority governments, the continent’s key powers are facing months of impotent introspection as challenges pile up, from a hostile second Trump administration to the economic headwinds from China and Russia’s steady advances in Ukraine. 

The political currents tossing governments across Europe are similar to those that propelled Donald Trump to win back the presidency, the Senate and very possibly the House. Voters on both sides of the Atlantic are in a restive mood, unhappy with the economy and unimpressed by politicians’ efforts to control a surge in illegal immigration.

But while America’s overall economy is strong, Europe’s recovery from its recent economic shocks has been lackluster, especially in the industrial heartlands of Germany.

Read it all.

"Europe Rudderless"

Both France and Germany now have minority governments.https://t.co/s2WbcRtpOi

— Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) November 7, 2024

Donald Trump is projected to return to the White House next January, according to the Associated Press, and is poised to spur the most dramatic reimagining of the staffing of government in more than a century.

That’s because Trump has vowed to revive Schedule F, a controversial abortive effort at the end of his first term to strip the civil service protections of potentially tens of thousands of career federal workers in “policy-related” positions, effectively making them at-will employees. Trump and many of his former staffers have frequently bemoaned that “rogue bureaucrats” inhibited his policymaking power during his first stint in the White House.

Though President Biden quickly rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021—before any positions could be converted out of the federal government’s competitive service—that hasn’t stopped Trump and his allies from working on the initiative in absentia. Both the Heritage Foundation and America First Policy Institute, which have organized dueling unofficial transition projects have endorsed reviving Schedule F, going so far as to creating lists of upwards of 50,000 current career civil servants to strip of their removal protections and threaten with termination.

Read it all.

What Trump’s win means for the federal workforce https://t.co/rCiwJi8BUN

— Nextgov/FCW (@NextgovFCW) November 6, 2024

On the day after Americans went to the polls in presidential elections, Archbishop Timothy Broglio has expressed the US Bishops’ prayers for President-elect Donald Trump and all members elected to represent the American people at the national, state, or local levels.

In an interview with Vatican News, the President of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) said the Catholic Church is “not aligned with any political party,” adding that the US Bishops’ look forward to working with elected representatives to promote the common good.

“As Christians and as Americans,” he said, “we have a duty to treat each other with charity, respect, and civility, even if we may disagree on how to carry out matters of public policy.”

Archbishop Broglio also noted that the US Bishops will seek to uphold the rights of all people, including the unborn…

Read it all.

Prayer for the United States Government by Archbishop John Carroll

“We pray, O almighty and eternal God,
who through Jesus Christ has revealed thy glory to all nations,
to preserve the works of your mercy,
that your Church, being spread through the whole world,
may continue with… pic.twitter.com/4m8p9BNfeT

— ChurchPOP (@Church_POP) November 6, 2024

Mr. Trump appeared to improve his performance on election night among many types of counties, including ones that had supported him in past elections as well as ones that have historically leaned Democratic.

Read it all.

This "shift from 2020" visualization from the NYT is something.

The movement was toward red, even in deep blue states. pic.twitter.com/4HJerGFQgq

— Prasanna (@BhogalePrasanna) November 6, 2024

Donald J. Trump rode a promise to smash the American status quo to win the presidency for a second time, surviving a criminal conviction, indictments, an assassin’s bullet, accusations of authoritarianism and an unprecedented switch of his opponent to complete a remarkable return to power.

Mr. Trump’s victory caps the astonishing political comeback of a man who was charged with plotting to overturn the last election but who tapped into frustrations and fears about the economy and illegal immigration to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.

His defiant plans to upend the country’s political system held appeal to tens of millions of voters who feared that the American dream was drifting further from reach and who turned to Mr. Trump as a battering ram against the ruling establishment and the expert class of elites.

In a deeply divided nation, voters embraced Mr. Trump’s pledge to seal the southern border by almost any means, to revive the economy with 19th-century-style tariffs that would restore American manufacturing and to lead a retreat from international entanglements and global conflict.

Read it all.

Nyt has it now after calling wisconsin #election #electionresults #politics #usa pic.twitter.com/DFfGWwjOcx

— Kendall Harmon (@KendallHarmon6) November 6, 2024

Almighty God, to whom we must account for all our powers and privileges: Guide and direct, we humbly pray, the minds of all those who are called to elect fit persons to serve the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the United States of America. Grant that in the exercise of our choice we may promote your glory, and the welfare of this nation. This we ask for the sake of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.  Amen.

A beautiful day to see the sun rise in New York City as people head to the polls on election day Tuesday morning #newyorkcity #nyc #newyork #sunrise @empirestatebldg #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/nWy7MusBzE

— Gary Hershorn (@GaryHershorn) November 5, 2024

Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices—electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance—were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.

Security officials say the electric massagers, sent to the U.K. from Lithuania, appear to have been a test run to figure out how to get such incendiary devices aboard planes bound for North America.

Read it all.

Exclusive | Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes – WSJ https://t.co/cNY7wdokRm

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) November 5, 2024

The biggest single crisis facing the United States on the eve of the election does not come from Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. It does not come from our enemies abroad. It does not come from our dissensions at home. It does not come from unfunded entitlement commitments. It does not come from climate change. Our greatest and most dangerous crisis is the decay of effective leadership at all levels of our national life, something that makes both our foreign and domestic problems, serious as they are, significantly more daunting than they should be.

Average confidence in institutions ranging from higher education to organized religion rests at historic lows, with fewer than 30% of respondents telling Gallup pollsters that they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in major American institutions. Only small business, the military, and the police inspire majorities of the public with a high degree of confidence; less than a fifth of Americans express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers, big business, television news, and Congress. 

Much of the country’s political and intellectual establishment responds defensively to numbers like this, blaming falling confidence on the corrosive effects of social media or the general backwardness and racism of the American public. The East German communist hacks Bertolt Brecht satirized also blamed their failings on the shortcomings of the masses: “The people have lost the confidence of the government and can only regain it through redoubled work.”

While social media is problematic, and not every citizen of the United States is a model of enlightened cosmopolitanism, America’s core problem today is not that the nation is unworthy of the elites who struggle to lead it. That superficial and dismissive response is itself a symptom of elite failure and an obstacle to the deep reform that the American leadership classes badly need.

Read it all.

America’s Crisis of Leadership: How Teddy Roosevelt can help save us from our Marie Antoinette problem: https://t.co/whepP7cGgG

— Tablet Magazine (@tabletmag) November 4, 2024

Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

It remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk. Israel’s punishing airstrike against Iran on Oct. 26 shredded the country’s strategic air defenses, leaving it badly exposed and sharply raising the risks to Iran if it follows through. 

How the Israeli response plays out will depend on the size, nature and effectiveness of Tehran’s threatened strike. So far, Israel has refrained from hitting Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities, essential to its economy and its security, but that calculus could change, Israeli officials have said.

Iran has told Arab diplomats that its conventional army would be involved because it had lost four soldiers and a civilian in Israel’s attack, the Iranian and Arab officials said. Involving its regular army doesn’t mean its troops would be deployed but that the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that normally deals with Israeli security matters wouldn’t act alone in this case.

Read it all.

WSJ reports #Iran's regime has been sending messages to Arab countries that it is planning a complex response to #Israel involving more powerful warheads & weapons and its regular army. Worth noting Artesh officers have deployed to #Syria in the past.https://t.co/KdVnXRlgIB

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) November 3, 2024

In principle, Ukraine could liberate its lost territory if the United States and its European partners intervened with forces of their own. But this would require jettisoning the indirect strategy they chose in 2022. It would come at great human, military, and economic cost. And it would introduce far greater risk, as it would mean war between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. For this reason, such a policy will not be adopted.

Instead of clinging to an infeasible definition of victory, Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome. It should still define victory as Kyiv remaining sovereign and independent, free to join whatever alliances and associations it wants. But it should jettison the idea that, to win, Kyiv needs to liberate all its land. So as the United States and its allies continue to arm Ukraine, they must take the uncomfortable step of pushing Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin—and laying out a clear sense of how it should do so.

Such a pivot may be unpopular. It will take political courage to make, and it will require care to implement. But it is the only way to end the hostilities, preserve Ukraine as a truly independent country, enable it to rebuild, and avoid a dire outcome for both Ukraine and the world.

Read it all.

The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs https://t.co/YQorbrdOWe

— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) November 4, 2024

–Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin).

–North Carolina counts fast (with new rules).

–Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night.

–Michigan could be faster than in the past.

–Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting Wednesday.

–Arizona could take days.

–Nevada could take days.

Read it all.

When to Expect Results in Each State on Election Night, and Beyond https://t.co/6WKP9twKkd

— Veronica Grauert (@verograuert) November 4, 2024

He called himself a simple onion farmer, a Mayan Indian with four kids and a fourth-grade education.

U.S. prosecutors knew better.

By his late 30s, Felipe Diego Alonzo had built a crime route stretching from Central America to Texas, allegedly paying off Mexican drug cartels along the way. He tooled around Guatemala’s western highlands in a loaded silver Ford Ranger pickup. When the police finally raided his ranch, they found a study in rural narco-chic: wooden chalets, a swimming pool, a show horse valued at $100,000.

What they didn’t find was a narco. Alonzo’s business “was more profitable than drug trafficking,” said one of the Guatemalan officials who detained him.

Alonzo was moving people.

Read it all.

As smuggling rings made billions from migrants, the U.S. was sidelined https://t.co/QKiCwSIpZx

— Mary Beth Sheridan (@marybsheridan) November 1, 2024

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual.

The Bill, introduced by the Labour MP Pat McFadden in September, seeks to remove the automatic membership of hereditaries in the House of Lords. The move to abolish the remaining 92 hereditary peers was promised in Labour’s election manifesto. The Bill had its Second Reading in the Commons last month. The subject was also debated by the Lords in July, shortly after the election (News, 26 July).

Last month, the Conservative MP Sir Gavin Williamson tabled an amendment to the Bill to include a clause that “No-one shall be a member of the House of Lords by virtue of being a bishop or Archbishop of the Church of England.”

Read it all.

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual https://t.co/8r0VXCxTHC

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 31, 2024

Payments from government entitlement programs — transfer payments — are the fastest-growing major component of citizens’ personal income. Such transfers are the third-largest source of personal income: In 2022, the average citizen received almost as much from government transfers ($11,500) as from investments ($12,900), and more than one-quarter as much money as was obtained from work. This average citizen received six times more (adjusted for inflation) in government transfer payments than in 1970, during which span income from other sources increased less than half as much. Transfers’ share of total (inflation-adjusted) personal income has more than doubled since 1970, from 8.2 percent to 17.6 percent in 2022.

The Washington-based Economic Innovation Group, which promotes economic dynamism, has released a report, “The Great ‘Transfer’-mation,” explaining how swiftly U.S. communities became dependent on government transfer payments. In 2022, Americans received $3.8 trillion in government transfers, 18 percent of all personal income. In 1970, not even 1 percent of counties received one-quarter or more of personal income from transfers. By 2000, 10 percent did; in 2022, it was 53 percent. This is certain to increase as the population ages.

The primary explanation: the aging U.S. population.

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https://t.co/O2tuE8fr4b
A mountain of government payments buries the myth of American self-reliance

— The Good Shepherd (@HoyasFan07) October 30, 2024

Infamously, polls in 2016 and 2020 systematically underestimated Mr Trump’s vote, especially in battleground states. After the 2016 election, the post mortem conducted by AAPOR, a professional organisation of pollsters, pointed to a late swing towards the Republican nominee and overrepresentation of graduates in poll samples. Most firms began to weight their samples to do a better job of reflecting the education profile of voters.

In 2020 the underestimation of Mr Trump was repeated for different reasons. This time AAPOR identified non-response bias—Republican voters were less likely to respond to pollsters. One theory is that they were less likely to be at home during the covid-19 pandemic (twiddling their thumbs and responding to surveys). Another is that Republican voters distrust pollsters, which discourages them from answering surveys.

Since 2020 pollsters have been at pains to reach a representative sample. They have experimented with recruitment that appeals to certain sections of society (postcards plastered with patriotic imagery, for example) and new modes, such as text messages. It is anyone’s guess whether this will be enough to account for the Democratic bias in response rates or whether supporters of Mr Trump are still reluctant to answer polls. If the errors seen in 2020 or 2016 are repeated even to a small degree that would be disastrous for Ms Harris—she could lose all seven swing states.

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The last Campaign Calculus to print before the election [😱] is on polling errors—all seven swing states are well within a normal polling error of flipping! https://t.co/vhMC84TtFE pic.twitter.com/e2JFce3u16

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) October 29, 2024

The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care.

“A review of funding would find a highly variable model for hospices: some are run by the NHS, with large annual charitable grants, and others are run by a charity that gets some funding from the NHS. A common hallmark is a holistic, bespoke, and patient-centred approach that values their relationships,” he said.

“We should not forget that all receiving hospice care are on the edge of eternity, and dying peacefully also requires spiritual palliative care.”

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The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care https://t.co/82wnOqIy6K

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 29, 2024

The reason climate change is so difficult to talk about is that bringing up any one issue is like pulling on a thread in a spiderweb: Every other thread in the web vibrates in response. We feel powerless to effect the changes we would like to see when simply meeting the needs of each day feels like an uphill battle. And so, the anxiety builds—until the anxiety itself feels like part of the avalanche threatening to tumble down on us. Is there any hope at all?

The short answer is yes. In fact, I think this is the time for radical hope. I first encountered this term in Jonathan Lear’s excellent book Radical Hope: Ethics in the Face of Cultural Devastation. Lear explores the history of the Crow tribe in the mid-1800s as they responded to the changes brought by western settlement of their territories in Montana.

The key figure in the book is the Crow chieftain Plenty Coups, who spent his life leading his people through those often-traumatic changes with one key insight: The old nomadic way of life chasing the buffalo was inescapably and irretrievably lost. How could his people hope when the very possibility of a meaningful Crow life was being destroyed? They had to learn to live a new way of life. Even their core values, like what it meant to be courageous, had to be re-formed in a culture where traditional warrior acts of courage were illegal.

Radical hope, then, is the hope that is formed when all our previous hopes are gone. Radical hope was the kind God provided the Israelite exiles….

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Climate change is a “wickedly complex problem,” writes a lecturer in science and religion.

Radical hope in the face of it “means settling down in our own exile and waiting for God’s promise to be fulfilled beyond the scope of our own lifetimes.”https://t.co/JrkRSyYFlP

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 26, 2024

Data centers are the factories of AI, turning energy and data into intelligence. Industry leaders estimate that a few major U.S. technology companies alone are expected to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers, between 2023 and 2026. The countries that work with companies to host data centers running AI workloads gain economic, political, and technological advantages and leverage. But data centers also present national security sensitivities, given that they often house high-end, export-controlled semiconductors and governments, businesses, and everyday users send some of their most sensitive information through them. And while the United States is ahead of China in many aspects of AI, especially in software and chip design, America faces significant bottlenecks with data centers.

Data centers are critical for the digital economy and AI. But the data center buildout is hitting a wall. The United States is home to the plurality of the world’s data centers, numbering in the thousands. Yet America’s aging energy grid, which powers those data centers, is under enormous strain from a complex set of factors, including rising electricity demand, delayed infrastructure upgrades, extreme weather events, and the complex transition to renewable energy. Meanwhile, surging data center demands driven by rapidly increasing AI workloads are exacerbating the grid’s vulnerabilities.

It’s not just a question of how those energy needs can be met, but where. When it comes to data centers, the shortage of powered land in the United States—or more specifically, the shortage of powered land with the connectivity required to support large-scale data centers—combined with supply chain challenges and lengthy permitting timelines for new infrastructure—presents a challenge to realizing both the public and private sectors’ AI ambitions.

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There are a lot of known unknowns about AI, but “The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics.” In my latest @ForeignPolicy piece, I argue that data might be the “new oil,” but nations—not nature—will decide where to build data centers. Source: Foreign Policy https://t.co/CHLEzhY9I6

— Jared Cohen (@JaredCohen) October 28, 2024

The soldier squints through his binoculars. “They can see us,” he warns, pointing to a silhouette of two figures on a hill in the distance. The men in his line of sight are soldiers from Eritrea. But the hill is in Tigray, a semi-autonomous region in northern Ethiopia. Eritrean troops control a significant chunk of Ethiopian territory on the border, in places reaching as far as 10km inside it. At night they creep even further south, spying on military positions and kidnapping civilians. “Let them not start a war and we shall not go to war,” says Tsadkan Gebretensae, the interim vice-president of Tigray and a veteran military commander. “But we are very much aware that things could get out of control.”

The tense situation around the hill, near the town of Fatsi, is a hangover from a war that has technically been over for two years. In late 2020 Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, launched what he promised would be a swift, clean military operation to oust Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). What followed instead was one of this century’s most horrific conflicts. To bring the recalcitrant region to heel, Mr Abiy enlisted tens of thousands of fighters from Amhara, a region next door. He also invited troops from Eritrea, which had been part of Ethiopia until seceding in 1993. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed, by bombs, bullets or government-induced famine and disease. Many of the dead were civilians. More than 100,000 women are thought to have been raped.

A peace agreement signed by Ethiopia’s government and the TPLF on November 2nd 2022, stopped the fighting in Tigray. But it did not settle the conflicts between Tigray and the war’s two other main parties, Eritrea and the militias from Amhara. Two years on, that omission helps explain why Mr Abiy faces fresh insurgencies at home and a potential war with Eritrea. These new pressures threaten to further destabilise the Horn of Africa, which is riven by tensions between several states or would-be states and is facing fallout from a catastrophic civil war in Sudan.

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A peace deal made two years ago was supposed to ensure that Ethiopia’s warring parties could mend rifts through further negotiations rather than violence.

No such talks have materialised and now another African war looms https://t.co/CPkGQSzenr 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 28, 2024