[According to Barclays’ economists…] The economic circumstances facing China have parallels with Japan’s experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. This created the term ‘Japanification’, which is typically defined as a combination of slow growth, low inflation, and a low policy rate, accompanied by deteriorating demographic trends.

To measure this phenomena, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which measured the sum of the inflation rate, nominal policy rate, and GDP gap. To apply to China’s economy, we have adjusted this index, replacing the GDP gap with working-age population growth, as the estimation methods of GDP gaps differ across nations and working-age population is by far the most fundamental determinant for long-term growth. Our amended index shows that China’s economy has become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s recently, albeit marginally.

This not a surprise to us. A demographic drag, the emergence and collapse of asset bubbles, debt overhang, zombie companies, deflationary pressures from excess capacity/high debt, and high youth unemployment, to name a few, are some of the notable similarities between the economies of China and Japan post their bubbles.

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"The “Japanification” of China continues to be a big theme, with a lot of eerie parallels right down to stimulus proving wanting. Here’s the latest symptom" https://t.co/tlxjGqqgnd pic.twitter.com/TnKwearGl0

— Scott Lincicome (@scottlincicome) October 17, 2024

O God, who in thy providence didst call Joseph Schereschewsky from his home in Eastern Europe to the ministry of this Church, and didst send him as a missionary to China, upholding him in his infirmity, that he might translate the holy Scriptures into languages of that land: Lead us, we pray thee, to commit our lives and talents to thee, in the confidence that when thou givest thy servants any work to do, thou dost also supply the strength to do it; through Jesus Christ our Lord, who liveth and reigneth with thee and the Holy Spirit, one God, for ever and ever.

With St. James and St. Gamaliel, Bishop Samuel Isaac Joseph Schereschewsky is one of my favorites. Like me a he was convert to Anglicanism from Judaism. Unlike me, he was very gifted with languages.

Blessed feast! pic.twitter.com/X6cUcjshY4

— Fr. Brandon ⚓️ (@barukalas) October 14, 2022

The illicit fentanyl that kills tens of thousands of Americans a year is largely produced from Chinese chemicals cooked up in clandestine Mexican laboratories, according to U.S. authorities. This requires drug traffickers to transport the necessary chemicals halfway around the world. But cartels have found a clever way to smuggle these chemicals from China to Mexico – by first importing them into the United States.

Master carton shipping has become an indispensable way for delivery companies to move vast quantities of merchandise around the world quickly. It’s legal, it’s practical, and in the era of e-commerce, it’s key to our everyday lives, whether we realize it or not.

Still, the practice makes it a snap for traffickers to sneak fentanyl chemicals into the country, hidden in small boxes packed inside other boxes. On top of that, a little-known U.S. trade regulation has made this smuggling easier still.

The de minimis rule exempts low-value parcels from taxes, duties and stringent customs reporting rules. It’s meant to keep U.S. Customs and Border Protection from wasting time and effort when the cost of collecting tariffs on cheap imports exceeds the revenue gained.

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A tweak in a trade rule fueled America’s online shopping habits. It also helped Mexican narcos smuggle vital fentanyl-making chemicals from China Here’s how: https://t.co/ahkIC9QfdB by @draz_DJ @gottesdiener @kristinacooke @SEisenhammer via @specialreports pic.twitter.com/aXnl1Yfpkw

— Reuters Investigates (@specialreports) October 1, 2024

It’s 1 a.m. and Thomas Wu is riding his bike on the empty streets of Shanghai. The 43-year-old insurance executive has had another meltdown.

Wu’s pay has been slashed by 20% in a nationwide push to lower salaries at state-owned finance companies. He frets about layoffs and wonders how he’ll find 600,000 yuan ($84,500) to keep his two children in international school — a hallmark of upper-middle-class life in China. His six-year-old is behind in math.

“What’s the point of driving our kids nuts studying so hard?” Wu said. “The top-tier graduates can’t find a job, those who come back from overseas can’t find a job.” Pay increases, he says, are no longer tied to effort. “My work is meaningless.”

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China created a new class of highly paid white-collar worker. Now their dreams are being crushed. https://t.co/FtWSrjgm8J #TheBigTake

— Kristine Servando (@tinssoldier) September 19, 2024

Ricki Mudd was born in 1993 in China during the one-child policy era. She remembers her early childhood only in fragments, but has been told she had spent some of it hidden in a bag.

At age 5, she was adopted from a Chinese orphanage, one of the more than 150,000 children China sent overseas. Most were girls. In the West, they were one of the most visible consequences of the one-child policy, which ended in 2016. This month, Beijing put an end to foreign adoptions. 

China is grappling with a demographic crisis, with dropping birthrates and a rapidly aging population. The policies to control the population have given way to new ones in the opposite direction. But a legacy of the one-child policy is a dearth of women of childbearing age.

Because of a government decree that led to forced abortions and sterilizations, millions of girls were never born or were hidden from authorities. In the process, China’s gender ratio became increasingly skewed, with 117 boys born for every 100 girls in 2004, compared with 106 in 1980, United Nations data showed. 

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The Missing Girls: How China’s One-Child Policy Tore Families Apart—A now-ended adoption program created the perception Chinese girls weren’t valued. One adoptee, once hidden in a grocery bag, found more to her own story.@QiLiyan https://t.co/hA715EWpXPhttps://t.co/hA715EWpXP

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) September 18, 2024

Seal Team 6, the clandestine US Navy commando unit that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, has been training for missions to help Taiwan if it is invaded by China, according to people familiar with the preparations.

The elite Navy special forces team, which is tasked with some of the military’s most sensitive and difficult missions, has been planning and training for a Taiwan conflict for more than a year at Dam Neck, its headquarters at Virginia Beach about 250km south-east of Washington.

The secret training underlines the increased US focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan, while stepping up preparations for such an event.

The preparations have only grown since Phil Davidson, the US Indo-Pacific commander at the time, warned in 2021 that China could attack Taiwan within six years.

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This is an amazing scoop by @FT and @Dimi. It is sure to get under Beijing's skin.

US Navy Seal unit that killed bin Laden trains for Chinese invasion of Taiwan https://t.co/6ngSZFvKrA via @ft

— Dennis Wilder偉德寧 (@dennisw5) September 12, 2024

China’s economic miracle is ending, leaving President Xi Jinping with a challenge none of his predecessors faced: how to govern after the boom.

For four decades, China’s 1.4 billion population experienced unparalleled gains in income and wealth. But recently the blows have just kept coming. Real estate collapse, trade war with the US, a crackdown on entrepreneurs, and extended Covid lockdowns have stalled the prosperity engine.

Chinese incomes are still rising, but under Xi gains have been the slowest since the late 1980s. The property crisis is hammering household wealth. And the cautious opening-up of China’s society has gone into reverse too. For many people across the country, it feels like a different world.

Take for example Mr. Hu, a factory worker in Shanghai. For almost a decade after moving from his hometown, Hu was upwardly mobile. He earned enough to buy a car, drove passengers at the weekend to top up the family income, and in 2020 bought a big-city apartment. Hu felt good about the future. Now he feels “desperate.”

Unlike his reform-era predecessors, Xi Jinping can’t count on rapid gains in prosperity to underpin support for Communist Party rule in China https://t.co/xAj5ruyMbw

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) May 22, 2024

The new tariffs President Biden announced last week aren’t economically significant. Symbolically, they are huge.

The U.S. buys almost no electric vehicles, steel or semiconductors—all targets of the tariffs—from China. But, by adding to, rather than rescinding, tariffs imposed in 2018 by former President Donald Trump, it signals that the decoupling of the Chinese and U.S. economies is becoming irreversible.

More important, the tariffs are the final piece of an economic strategy for competing with China.

This strategy is a three-legged stool. The first consists of subsidies to build a viable technology manufacturing sector, from clean energy to semiconductors. The second is tariffs on Chinese imports that threaten those efforts. The third is restrictions on access to money, technology and know-how that could help China compete. A fourth leg, a unified economic front with allies, remains unrealized.

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Biden's new tariffs round out a three-legged strategy for competing with China. Leg 1: subsidies to build a viable technology manufacturing sector, from clean energy to semiconductors. 2: tariffs on Chinese imports that threaten those efforts. 3: restrictions on access to money,…

— Greg Ip (@greg_ip) May 20, 2024

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin pledged to intensify cooperation against US “containment” of their countries, as they warned of growing nuclear tensions between rival powers.

Putin and Xi accused the US of planning to station missile systems around the world that “pose a direct threat to the security of Russia and China,” in a joint declaration after more than two hours of talks in Beijing on Thursday. They agreed to tighten coordination, including between their militaries, against what they called Washington’s “destructive and hostile course.”

Putin’s in China on the first foreign visit since his inauguration last week for a fifth presidential term, indicating the importance of the relationship with Xi in enabling Moscow to resist unprecedented sanctions from the US and its allies over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping signaled to Vladimir Putin that ties between the two nations remain strong, as the Russian leader embarks on a new term with the war in Ukraine dragging into its third year https://t.co/xvrekfJjxl pic.twitter.com/xAGy7MdqkI

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) May 16, 2024

Mark Kelly of Recorded Future, a cyber-security firm, says his company is aware of about 50 hacking groups in China, including private firms working for the mss or People’s Liberation Army. There are undoubtedly many more. Mr Kelly describes China’s cyber-espionage efforts as “orders of magnitude” greater in scale than those mounted by Russia or North Korea.

As the indictment shows, they are surprisingly devolved. Some of them specialise in spying on different parts of the world, says Nigel Inkster, a former deputy head of Britain’s spy agency, mi6. They have considerable leeway to do as they wish, he says: “I’m not even sure that there is any kind of formal political clearance mechanism.” Much of their work is subcontracted to private firms. Last month a huge online dump of documents from one such company, i-Soon, showed its involvement in large-scale cyber-snooping on behalf of a variety of government agencies.

The West’s anxieties, not least about the hackers’ theft of corporate data, are becoming increasingly manifest. In January the head of the fbi, Christopher Wray, said that China’s state-sponsored hackers outnumbered his agency’s cyber-personnel by “at least 50 to one”. He added that China’s hackers are laying the groundwork for a possible Chinese strike, “positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities.”

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The West’s anxieties about Chinese cyber-espionage are becoming increasingly manifest. But if it hopes that naming, shaming and sanctions will dissuade the spooks, it is likely to be disappointed https://t.co/MnQGij3lds 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 27, 2024

“The challenge we are having is a lack of interest by federal prosecutors to charge illicit marijuana cases,” said Ray Donovan, the former chief of operations of the Drug Enforcement Administration. “They don’t realize all the implications. Marijuana causes so much crime at the local level, gun violence in particular. The same groups selling thousands of pounds of marijuana are also laundering millions of dollars of fentanyl money. It’s not just one-dimensional.”

The expansion into the cannabis market is propelling the rise of Chinese organized crime as a global powerhouse, current and former national security officials say. During the past decade, Chinese mafias became the dominant money launderers for Latin American cartels dealing narcotics including fentanyl, which has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. The huge revenue stream from marijuana fuels that laundering apparatus, which is “the most extensive network of underground banking in the world,” said a former senior DEA official, Donald Im.

“The profits from the marijuana trade allow the Chinese organized criminal networks to expand their underground global banking system for cartels and other criminal organizations,” said Im, who was an architect of the DEA’s fight against Chinese organized crime.

U.S. law enforcement struggles to respond to this multifaceted threat. State and federal agencies suffer from a lack of personnel who know Chinese language and culture well enough to investigate complex cases, infiltrate networks or translate intercepts, current and former officials say. A federal shift of priorities to counterterrorism after 2001 meant resources dedicated to Chinese organized crime dwindled — while the power of the underworld grew.

And the shadow of the Chinese state hovers over it all….

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Officials estimate the value of the illegal marijuana market grown in Oklahoma at somewhere between $18 billion and $44 billion a year.

Investigators have found links to foreign mafias and say that more than 80% of the groups are of Chinese origin. https://t.co/A4WKYfaCet

— ProPublica (@propublica) March 16, 2024

…there is one reason why America’s crackdown is justified. TikTok has evolved into a broad media platform with 170m users in America alone. A third of American adults under 30 consider TikTok a source not just of entertainment but of news. It is therefore a real concern that it has links to China, whose government is in deep ideological conflict with the West and sees the media as a tool of propaganda.

Most countries place some restrictions on foreign ownership of old media (ask Rupert Murdoch, who became an American citizen before taking over Fox). A bid by Abu Dhabi’s ruling family for the Telegraph newspaper prompted Britain to announce this week that it will ban foreign governments from owning British publications. Yet TikTok is fast becoming more influential.

It is time for governments to apply the same logic to new media as they do to old. If anything, the new platforms require greater vigilance. A newspaper’s editorial line can be seen in black and white; by contrast, every TikTok user gets a different feed, and the company does not provide adequate tools to examine its output in aggregate. Even if studies suggest bias—some allege a skew in TikTok’s Gaza coverage, for instance—it is impossible to know whether TikTok’s algorithm is responding to users’ preferences, or to manipulation from Beijing.

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The best outcome is one in which TikTok survives. But that requires separating such a prominent platform from the influence of a country as manipulative and ideological as China https://t.co/GfNCoDEGZm 👇

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 13, 2024

Two scientists at Canada’s high-security infectious disease laboratory – Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng – provided confidential scientific information to China and were fired after a probe concluded she posed “a realistic and credible threat to Canada’s economic security” and it was discovered they engaged in clandestine meetings with Chinese officials, documents tabled in the House of Commons reveal.

Dr. Qiu, who worked at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, was dishonest when confronted with her actions, making “blanket denials” and “half-truths, and personally benefited from the arrangement,” the documents state, noting that she repeatedly lied to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and “refused to admit to any involvement in various PRC [People’s Republic of China] programs.”

The two infectious-disease scientists were escorted out of the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg in July, 2019, and later had their security clearances revoked. They were fired in January, 2021. Their whereabouts are not known.

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Censored documents about Winnipeg scientists reveal threat to Canada’s security. Two scientists at Canada’s high-security infectious disease laboratory – Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng – provided confidential information to China. ⁦ https://t.co/H8VviJnRfx pic.twitter.com/Vk7EAMXjSR

— Bruce Hale (@hale_bruce) March 1, 2024

While Americans rightly exult in the achievements of U.S. medalists, “Chariots of Fire” also serves as a reminder that athletics and even patriotism only mean so much. When Liddell is informed that a qualifying heat takes place on Sunday, his Sabbath, he chooses not to compete in that race. The camera cuts from athletes at the Olympics to Liddell reading a passage in Isaiah: “Behold the nations are as a drop in the bucket . . . but they that wait upon the Lord shall renew their strength, they shall mount up with wings, as eagles. They shall run, and not be weary. They shall walk and not faint.” David Puttnam, a “Chariots of Fire” producer, wrote me that the verses were “specifically selected by the actor, the late Ian Charleson, who gave himself the task of reading the entire Bible whilst preparing for the film.”

The Isaiah passage is liturgically important for Jews: Parts of it are declaimed in synagogue on the Sabbath when we read God’s command to Abraham to leave the center of civilization and found a family, and a faith, in a new land. Isaiah reminds Jews that Abraham’s children have encountered much worse than what Harold Abrahams experienced. While most nations now rest on the ash heap of history, the biblical Abraham’s odyssey continues. The countries competing in today’s Olympics come and go, while those who “wait upon the Lord” endure.

“Chariots of Fire” also offers a message for people of faith who have grown troubled by the secularization of society and the realization that they are often scorned by elites. Like Liddell, we may be forced to choose religious principle over social success. Hopefully, however, we will be able to use our gifts to sanctify this world. As Liddell’s father told his son in the film: “Run in God’s name, and let the world stand back in wonder.”

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Remembering the Flying Scotsman Eric Lidell, Olympic Champion & man of principle who died in captivity this day 1945 pic.twitter.com/Jgse31BP1b

— John Duncan (@Newbattleatwar) February 21, 2014

God whose strength bears us up as on mighty wings: We rejoice in remembering thy athlete and missionary, Eric Liddell, to whom thou didst bestow courage and resolution in contest and in captivity; and we pray that we also may run with endurance the race that is set before us and persevere in patient witness, until we wear that crown of victory won for us by Jesus our Savior; who with thee and the Holy Spirit livest and reignest, one God, for ever and ever. Amen.

21 February 1945. Olympic legend, Eric Liddell, died (aged 43). As a committed Christian, he refused to run in heats of the 100 metres at the 1924 Paris Olympics because they were held on a Sunday, but he won the 400 metres. His story featured in the film, Chariots of Fire. pic.twitter.com/GB6wJW9yg1

— Prof. Frank McDonough (@FXMC1957) February 21, 2024

Russia, China and other U.S. adversaries are using the newest wave of artificial intelligence tools to improve their hacking abilities and find new targets for online espionage, according to a report Wednesday from Microsoft and its close business partner OpenAI.

While computer users of all stripes have been experimenting with large language models to help with programming tasks, translate phishing emails and assemble attack plans, the new report is the first to associate top-tier government hacking teams with specific uses of LLM. It’s also the first report on countermeasures and comes amid a continuing debate about the risks of the rapidly developing technology and efforts by many countries to put some limits on its use.

The document attributes various uses of AI to two Chinese government-affiliated hacking groups and to one group from each of Russia, Iran and North Korea, comprising the four countries of foremost concern to Western cyber defenders.

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"#Russia, #China & other U.S. adversaries .. using .. #ArtificialIntelligence tools to improve their #Hacking abilities & find new targets for online espionage, according to a report Wednesday from @Microsoft .. close business partner @OpenAI." @josephmenn https://t.co/V06CVI0Mvw

— Christina Ayiotis, Esq., CRM, CIPP/E (@christinayiotis) February 15, 2024

Nextgov/FCW: Talk about how you prepared for the water-systems security hearing today and any major takeaways from it. 

Clancy: We met with the majority and minority staff ahead of the hearing to get a sense of their objectives. Of course, MITRE has a diverse set of sponsors in these areas, so we engaged with them to make sure we were representing a whole-of-government view across the sectors.

My big message is what I said in my opening statement. A lot of these policy fixes on the fringes are not going to deal with the scale of the threat that we face. So if you want to continue to fight against harassment campaigns from nation states…the sorts of solutions people were talking about are probably okay, but I think the big point I want to get across that didn’t get enough air time is that the threat has really changed.

We’ve got maybe three years to figure this out before China does an all-out attack against our critical infrastructure. We’re going to have to train and prepare to disconnect our operational technology systems from our information technology systems ahead of a major attack from China.

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Expect China to attack US infrastructure within 3 years, MITRE CTO says https://t.co/zWHBOAn8uH

— Defense One (@DefenseOne) February 11, 2024

Most emerging economies struggle to live within their means; China struggles to live up to them. Even in the best of times, the combined spending of its households, firms and government is not enough to buy all that it can produce, leaving a surplus that must be exported: the country has run a trade surplus for 34 of the past 40 years. And these are not the best of times. China is enduring its longest spell of deflation since the Asian crisis over a quarter-century ago. An epic stock market rout since late 2022 has seen investors lose $2 trillion.

Behind that panic lies a deeper fear among investors and officials, namely that China no longer has a reliable driver of growth. The property boom is over. Cash-strapped developers are afraid to build flats and households are afraid to buy them. The infrastructure mania has run out of road: indebted local governments lack the funds. Exporting goods to the rest of the world, which China relied on for decades to escape poverty, is getting harder as protectionism rises and Western countries become wary of relying on authoritarian states.

Much therefore rests on one remaining source of growth: boosting the spending of China’s 1.4 billion people.“The Chinese market, with its vast space and growing depth, will play an important role in boosting aggregate global demand,” Li Qiang, China’s prime minister, told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. A new imf review of China’s prospects published on February 2nd contains 61 references to the word “consumption”.

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As China’s markets crash, its consumers cower https://t.co/ue3QhEh3pS | $AMD $MSFT $T $QQQ $SPX $SPY $ING $GLE $NFLX $DB $BABA $RIVN $NIO $AMD $PACW $PENN $LCID #AEX $NCLH $QQQ $SAVE $SOFI $MARA $AAL $NVO $DIS $AMZN $JPM $CCL $TSLA #CAC #DAX $AMZN $AMC $SPY $AAPL $META $TEAM $X…

— 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇩🇪 European Investors News 💯🇩🇪 🇨🇰 (@EuropeanTraders) February 7, 2024

The global footprint of criminal groups from China¹ has expanded along with China’s economic and geopolitical presence around the world. North America’s fentanyl crisis thrust China-linked criminal networks and their expanding international connections, such as with the Sinaloa Cartel, to U.S. policy forefront.

However, the scope of organized crime from China extends far beyond global drug trafficking and money laundering. Internationally, Chinese criminal groups engage in poaching and wildlife trafficking, cybercrime, and elaborate fraud and scams, also featuring people trafficking and enslavement. Long experienced in illegally bringing people to the United States and Canada, criminal networks from China have intensified activities at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Chinese fishing vessels, often illegally devastating protected marine areas and other countries’ exclusive economic zones, can facilitate drug trafficking and serve as the Chinese government’s maritime militia proxies in extraterritorial claims and military confrontations. They can also augment Chinese espionage around the world.

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China-linked criminal networks in 2024 are likely to expand their geographic reach and deep role in various illegal economies.

Read more from @VFelbabBrown @Diana_Paz99 & Vibha Bajji:https://t.co/dNlE3qnpUg

— Brookings Foreign Policy (@BrookingsFP) February 2, 2024

China’s population has shrunk for the second year in a row.

The National Bureau of Statistics reports just 9.02 million births in 2023 – only half as many as in 2017. Set alongside China’s 11.1 million deaths in 2023, up 500,000 on 2022, it means China’s population shrank 2.08 million in 2023 after falling 850,000 in 2022. That’s a loss of about 3 million in two years.

The two consecutive declines are the first since the great famine of 1959-1961, and the trend is accelerating.

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China’s falling population could halve by 2100 https://t.co/g1w7uNSZZx

— Asia Times (@asiatimesonline) January 20, 2024

Chinese researchers isolated and mapped the virus that causes Covid-19 in late December 2019, at least two weeks before Beijing revealed details of the deadly virus to the world, congressional investigators said, raising questions anew about what China knew in the pandemic’s crucial early days.

Documents obtained from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services by a House committee and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show that a Chinese researcher in Beijing uploaded a nearly complete sequence of the virus’s structure to a U.S. government-run database on Dec. 28, 2019. Chinese officials at that time were still publicly describing the disease outbreak in Wuhan, China, as a viral pneumonia “of unknown cause” and had yet to close the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, site of one of the initial Covid-19 outbreaks.