Category : Economy

(WSJ) The Fight for AI Talent: Pay Million-Dollar Packages and Buy Whole Teams

The artificial-intelligence boom is sending Silicon Valley’s talent wars to new extremes.

Tech companies are serving up million-dollar-a-year compensation packages, accelerated stock-vesting schedules and offers to poach entire engineering teams to draw people with expertise and experience in the kind of generative AI that is powering ChatGPT and other humanlike bots. They are competing against each other and against startups vying to be the next big thing to unseat the giants.

The offers stand out even by the industry’s relatively lavish past standards of outsize pay and perks. And the current AI talent shortage stands out for another reason: It is happening as layoffs are continuing in other areas of tech and as companies have been reallocating resources to invest more in covering the enormous cost of developing AI technology.

“There is a secular shift in what talents we’re going after,” says Naveen Rao, head of Generative AI at Databricks. “We have a glut of people on one side and a shortage on the other.”

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Posted in Corporations/Corporate Life, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Science & Technology

(Economist) What to make of China’s massive cyber-espionage campaign

Mark Kelly of Recorded Future, a cyber-security firm, says his company is aware of about 50 hacking groups in China, including private firms working for the mss or People’s Liberation Army. There are undoubtedly many more. Mr Kelly describes China’s cyber-espionage efforts as “orders of magnitude” greater in scale than those mounted by Russia or North Korea.

As the indictment shows, they are surprisingly devolved. Some of them specialise in spying on different parts of the world, says Nigel Inkster, a former deputy head of Britain’s spy agency, mi6. They have considerable leeway to do as they wish, he says: “I’m not even sure that there is any kind of formal political clearance mechanism.” Much of their work is subcontracted to private firms. Last month a huge online dump of documents from one such company, i-Soon, showed its involvement in large-scale cyber-snooping on behalf of a variety of government agencies.

The West’s anxieties, not least about the hackers’ theft of corporate data, are becoming increasingly manifest. In January the head of the fbi, Christopher Wray, said that China’s state-sponsored hackers outnumbered his agency’s cyber-personnel by “at least 50 to one”. He added that China’s hackers are laying the groundwork for a possible Chinese strike, “positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities.”

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Posted in China, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, Science & Technology, The U.S. Government

(Bloomberg) Vital Baltimore Bridge Collapses After Being Struck by Ship

A major commuter bridge in Baltimore collapsed after being struck by a container ship, causing vehicles to plunge into the water and halting shipping traffic at one of the most important ports on the US East Coast.

Baltimore Fire Chief James Wallace said two people had been rescued from the scene, one of whom was seriously injured. Authorities were looking for up to seven people who are believed to be in the water, although it was unclear if that included the two who were rescued.

The early morning disaster at the Francis Scott Key Bridge will cause huge disruption — both for shipping at one of the busiest ports on the US East Coast and on the roads — after severing a key link on the major highway encircling Baltimore.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy

(FT) US faces Liz Truss-style market shock as debt soars, warns watchdog

The US faces a Liz Truss-style market shock if the government ignores the country’s ballooning federal debt, the head of Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog has warned.

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, said the mounting US fiscal burden was on an “unprecedented” trajectory, risking a crisis of the kind that sparked a run on the pound and the collapse of Truss’s government in the UK in 2022.

“The danger, of course, is what the UK faced with former prime minister Truss, where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action,” Swagel said in an interview with the Financial Times.

The US was “not there yet”, he said, but as higher interest rates raise the cost of paying its creditors to $1tn in 2026, bond markets could “snap back”.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Budget, Credit Markets, Economy, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

([London] Times) Religious jobs are a broad church–there’s more than just clergy

As perhaps the ultimate job with purpose, careers in the church are enjoying a second coming.

In a world of zero-hours contracts and corporate greed, doing God’s work is an increasingly attractive option for those seeking a meaningful role making a difference to communities locally and worldwide. Two factors have combined to resurrect interest in church employment.

Firstly, ageing congregations and the rapid rise in female employment means there are fewer volunteers to take on local roles. A recent study suggested the average age of the church’s worshipping community was 61, but many congregations’ members are still in employment and unable to volunteer….

Secondly, modernising moves such as the Church of England’s £30 million net-zero carbon programme and diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives have aligned the church to corporate workplaces, making it simpler for those with transferable skills to make the move into ministry.

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Posted in Church of England, England / UK, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Religion & Culture

(Nature) Google AI could soon use a person’s cough to diagnose disease

A team led by Google scientists has developed a machine-learning tool that can help to detect and monitor health conditions by evaluating noises such as coughing and breathing. The artificial intelligence (AI) system, trained on millions of audio clips of human sounds, might one day be used by physicians to diagnose diseases including COVID-19 and tuberculosis and to assess how well a person’s lungs are functioning.

This is not the first time a research group has explored using sound as a biomarker for disease. The concept gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, when scientists discovered that it was possible to detect the respiratory disease through a person’s cough.

What’s new about the Google system — called Health Acoustic Representations (HeAR) — is the massive data set that it was trained on, and the fact that it can be fine-tuned to perform multiple tasks.

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Posted in Anthropology, Corporations/Corporate Life, Health & Medicine, History, Science & Technology

(FT) Climate graphic of the week: Oceans set heat records for more than 365 days in a row

Oceans marked 365 straight days of record-breaking global sea surface temperatures this week, fuelling concerns among international scientists that climate change could push marine ecosystems beyond a tipping point.

The consistent climb in temperatures reached a peak on Wednesday when the new all-time high was set for the past 12 months, at 21.2C.

The world’s seas have yet to show any signs of dropping to typical, seasonal temperatures, with daily records consecutively broken since they first went off the charts in mid-March last year, according to data from the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and the Climate Reanalyzer research collaboration.

Driven by human-caused climate change and amplified by the cyclical El Niño weather phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean, this exceptional heat has bleak implications.

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Posted in Animals, Climate Change, Weather, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ecology, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Science & Technology

A Reflection on Saint Joseph the Worker by Tarcisio Giuseppe Stramare for his Feast Day

ZENIT spoke with Father Tarcisio Giuseppe Stramare of the Congregation of Oblates of Saint Joseph, director of the Josephite Movement, about Tuesday’s feast of St. Joseph the Worker….

ZENIT: What does “Gospel of work” mean?

Father Stramare: “Gospel” is the Good News that refers to Jesus, the Savior of humanity. Well, despite the fact that in general we see Jesus as someone who teaches and does miracles, he was so identified with work that in his time he was regarded as “the son of the carpenter,” namely, an artisan himself. Among many possible activities, the Wisdom of God chose for Jesus manual work, entrusted the education of his Son not to the school of the learned but to a humble artisan, namely, St. Joseph.

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Posted in Anthropology, Church History, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Theology

(WSJ) Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them

Kali Gaddie was a college senior when the pandemic abruptly upended her life plans—and made her part of a big and deeply unhappy political force that figures to play a huge role in the 2024 election season.

Her graduation was postponed, she was let go from her college job and her summer internship got canceled. She spent the final months of school taking online classes from her parents’ house. “You would think that there’s a plan B or a safety net,” she said. “But there’s actually not.”

Today, Gaddie, 25, works as an office manager in Atlanta earning less than $35,000 a year. In her spare time, she uploads videos to TikTok, where she’s amassed thousands of followers. Now, that’s at risk of being taken away too. All of this has left her dejected and increasingly skeptical of politicians.

Young adults in Generation Z—those born in 1997 or after—have emerged from the pandemic feeling more disillusioned than any living generation before them, according to long-running surveys and interviews with dozens of young people around the country. They worry they’ll never make enough money to attain the security previous generations have achieved, citing their delayed launch into adulthood, an impenetrable housing market and loads of student debt.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, America/U.S.A., Anthropology, History, Politics in General, Psychology, The U.S. Government, Uncategorized, Young Adults

(Economist) Time for TikTok to cut its ties to China

…there is one reason why America’s crackdown is justified. TikTok has evolved into a broad media platform with 170m users in America alone. A third of American adults under 30 consider TikTok a source not just of entertainment but of news. It is therefore a real concern that it has links to China, whose government is in deep ideological conflict with the West and sees the media as a tool of propaganda.

Most countries place some restrictions on foreign ownership of old media (ask Rupert Murdoch, who became an American citizen before taking over Fox). A bid by Abu Dhabi’s ruling family for the Telegraph newspaper prompted Britain to announce this week that it will ban foreign governments from owning British publications. Yet TikTok is fast becoming more influential.

It is time for governments to apply the same logic to new media as they do to old. If anything, the new platforms require greater vigilance. A newspaper’s editorial line can be seen in black and white; by contrast, every TikTok user gets a different feed, and the company does not provide adequate tools to examine its output in aggregate. Even if studies suggest bias—some allege a skew in TikTok’s Gaza coverage, for instance—it is impossible to know whether TikTok’s algorithm is responding to users’ preferences, or to manipulation from Beijing.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, --Social Networking, America/U.S.A., Blogging & the Internet, China, Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(Bloomberg) Professor Ken Rogoff Says Biden, Trump Favor ‘Blowing Up’ US Debt

Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff said both President Joe Biden and his predecessor and challenger Donald Trump risk sending US debt levels into dangerous territory as Washington fails to grasp that the era of ultra-low interest rates won’t come back.

“Washington in general has a very relaxed attitude towards debt that I think they’re going to be sorry about,” Rogoff said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. “It’s just not the free lunch that Congress and perhaps the two presidential candidates have gotten used to.”

While an exact “upper limit” for the federal debt cannot be known — it’s estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to climb to 116% of US gross domestic product by 2034 from 99% today — Rogoff warned that there will be challenges as the level increases.

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Posted in Budget, Ethics / Moral Theology, House of Representatives, Office of the President, Politics in General, Senate, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(Church Times) People have to borrow to buy basic essentials, long-term study shows

UK households are being driven further into debt by the rising cost of living, a new, decade-long study has shown. An estimated one million people on low incomes are now in arrears after paying for the basic essentials.

The findings are set out in the report Pushed Under, Pushed Out, published by Christians Against Poverty (CAP) on Tuesday. It is based on research carried out by the Centre for Research in Social Policy at Loughborough University, which analysed information on household finances from the Office for National Statistics — more than 35,000 individuals in more than 17,000 households. People were interviewed every two years from 2010 to 2020.

The study tracks levels of debt in this period, analysing how the use of credit to pay for essentials had tipped people below the Minimum Income Standard. This is the widely used benchmark of an acceptable living standard, updated each year.

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Posted in Economy, England / UK, Personal Finance

The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community offers a sobering analysis of what likely awaits us

During the next year, the United States faces an increasingly fragile global order strained by accelerating strategic competition among major powers, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges, and multiple regional conflicts with far-reaching implications. An ambitious but anxious China, a confrontational Russia, some regional powers, such as Iran, and more capable non-state actors are challenging longstanding rules of the international system as well as U.S. primacy within it. Simultaneously, new technologies, fragilities in the public health sector, and environmental changes are more frequent, often have global impact and are harder to forecast…The world that emerges from this tumultuous period will be shaped by whoever offers the most persuasive arguments for how the world should be governed, how societies should be organized, and which systems are most effective at advancing economic growth and providing benefits for more people.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., Foreign Relations, Globalization, Politics in General, Science & Technology, The U.S. Government

(Bloomberg) Americans’ Financial Insecurity Is at a Record, Survey Says

Feelings of financial insecurity among Americans have reached their highest point in at least a decade.

A third of American adults in Northwestern Mutual’s 2024 Planning & Progress survey said they don’t feel financially secure. That’s up from 27% in 2023 and the highest measure going back to 2012.

“Despite the growing economy, Americans have had to endure one financial disruption after another over the last several years, and it’s hard to feel positive when you don’t know what’s around the corner,” said Christian Mitchell, the company’s chief customer officer, in a press release.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Personal Finance

(Washington Post) Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power

Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid.

In Georgia, demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times what it was only recently. Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in that state, is also struggling to keep up, projecting it will be out of transmission capacity before the end of the decade absent major upgrades.

Northern Virginia needs the equivalent of several large nuclear power plants to serve all the new data centers planned and under construction. Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Science & Technology

(Church Times) In face of opposition, Dean of Ripon seeks views on proposed cathedral annexe

The Dean of Ripon, the Very Revd John Dobson, is urging people in the diocese of Leeds to respond to an extended consultation on plans to build an annexe to the cathedral, which is said to be “bursting at the seams”…

Building plans for the renovation — Ripon Cathedral Renewed — have already been approved by Historic England and all the cathedral’s regulators, including the Fabric Advisory Commission. But about 2000 people have signed a petition opposing the annexe.

Ripon Cathedral was the first minster church since the Reformation to be given cathedral status, in 1836. Unlike those that came later, it was never adapted or extended in any way; consequently, it has no lavatories — the cathedral pays the council to keep open the public lavatories across the road in Minster Gardens — no safe space for choristers to change and rehearse, no refectory, no communal meeting space, and no storage space.

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Posted in Church of England (CoE), Housing/Real Estate Market, Parish Ministry, Urban/City Life and Issues

(NYT) Cyberattack Paralyzes the Largest U.S. Health Care Payment System

An urgent care chain in Ohio may be forced to stop paying rent and other bills to cover salaries. In Florida, a cancer center is racing to find money for chemotherapy drugs to avoid delaying critical treatments for its patients. And in Pennsylvania, a primary care doctor is slashing expenses and pooling all of her cash — including her personal bank stash — in the hopes of staying afloat for the next two months.

These are just a few examples of the severe cash squeeze facing medical care providers — from large hospital networks to the smallest of clinics — in the aftermath of a cyberattack two weeks ago that paralyzed the largest U.S. billing and payment system in the country. The attack forced the shutdown of parts of the electronic system operated by Change Healthcare, a sizable unit of UnitedHealth Group, leaving hundreds, if not thousands, of providers without the ability to obtain insurance approval for services ranging from a drug prescription to a mastectomy — or to be paid for those services.

In recent days, the chaotic nature of this sprawling breakdown in daily, often invisible transactions led top lawmakers, powerful hospital industry executives and patient groups to pressure the U.S. government for relief. On Tuesday, the Health and Human Services Department announced that it would take steps to try to alleviate the financial pressures on some of those affected: Hospitals and doctors who receive Medicare reimbursements would mainly benefit from the new measures.

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Posted in Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Health & Medicine, Science & Technology

(NYT front page) Americans Live Far From Work, Given a Choice

In 2020, Virginia Martin lived two and a half miles from her office. Today, the distance between her work and home is 156.

Ms. Martin, 37, used to live in Durham, N.C., and drove about 10 minutes to her job as a librarian at Duke. After the onset of remote work, Ms. Martin got her boss’s blessing to return to her hometown, Richmond, Va., in March 2022, so she could raise her two young children with help from family.

As an ’80s-born “child of AIM,” Ms. Martin said of AOL instant messaging, it hadn’t been hard for her to maintain co-worker friendships online. She drives back to the office several times a year for events, most recently for the December holiday party.

Ms. Martin is part of today’s growing ZIP code shift: She is one of the millions of Americans who, thanks to remote and hybrid work, no longer lives close to where she works.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Blogging & the Internet, Children, Economy, History, Housing/Real Estate Market, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Marriage & Family, Science & Technology

(WSJ) Why Teachers Are Still Leaving the Profession

Betsy Sumner always knew she wanted to be a teacher. She came from a family of educators and took a class in high school for aspiring teachers. She began teaching straight out of college in 2009 and loved it.

But last summer she left her job teaching family and consumer sciences, the subject previously known as home economics, at a high school in northern Virginia. With four children of her own, juggling the demanding workload was no longer worth it for the pay.

“It’s almost like preparing for a circus or a theater performance—every day you have to show up and do a show,” she said of preparing for class each day. “It’s just not really sustainable.”

Public-school teachers like Sumner are still leaving the profession in higher numbers than before the pandemic, a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from 10 states show, though departures have fallen since their peak in 2022. The elevated rate is likely due to a combination of factors and adds one more challenge to schools battling learning loss and frequent student absences.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, Anthropology, Children, Education, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market, Pastoral Theology, Politics in General

(CNBC) The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days

The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.

The nation’s debt permanently crossed over to $34 trillion on Jan. 4, after briefly crossing the mark on Dec. 29, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It reached $33 trillion on Sept. 15, 2023, and $32 trillion on June 15, 2023, hitting this accelerated pace. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.

U.S. debt, which is the amount of money the federal government borrows to cover operating expenses, now stands at nearly $34.4 trillion, as of Wednesday. Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett believes the 100-day pattern will remain intact with the move from $34 trillion to $35 trillion.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, America/U.S.A., Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Politics in General, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government

(FT) Emissions reach record high despite growth in clean energy, IEA says

The world’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose yet again to a new high in 2023 despite fossil fuel use falling in the advanced economies of the EU and US, the latest International Energy Agency report shows.

Emissions reached a record 37.4bn tonnes as droughts and rising energy demand pushed up fossil fuel use, a rise of 1.1 per cent, or 410mn tonnes, compared to the year before.

This runs counter to the need for emissions to be cut by almost 45 per cent by 2030 to limit long-term global warming to no more than 1.5C since the pre-industrial era. Already the rise in temperatures is at least 1.1C, and last year was the hottest on record.

Higher emissions from India and China helped offset reductions in the EU and the US, as the developing economies remained heavily reliant on coal to meet energy demand even as they also develop cleaner energy. 

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Climate Change, Weather, Corporations/Corporate Life, Ecology, Energy, Natural Resources, Ethics / Moral Theology, Politics in General, Science & Technology

(Wired) Ransomware Groups Are Bouncing Back Faster From Law Enforcement Busts

Six days before Christmas, the US Department of Justice loudly announced a win in the ongoing fight against the scourge of ransomware: An FBI-led, international operation had targeted the notorious hacking group known as BlackCat or AlphV, releasing decryption keys to foil its ransom attempts against hundreds of victims and seizing the dark web sites it had used to threaten and extort them. “In disrupting the BlackCat ransomware group, the Justice Department has once again hacked the hackers,” deputy attorney general Lisa Monaco declared in a statement.

Two months and one week later, however, those hackers don’t appear particularly “disrupted.” For the last seven days and counting, BlackCat has held hostage the medical firm Change Healthcare, crippling its software in hospitals and pharmacies across the United States, leading to delays in drug prescriptions for an untold number of patients.

The ongoing outage at Change Healthcare, first reported to be a BlackCat attack by Reuters, represents a particularly grim incident in the ransomware epidemic not just due to its severity, its length, and the potential toll on victims’ health. Ransomware-tracking analysts say it also illustrates how even law enforcement’s wins against ransomware groups appear to be increasingly short-lived, as the hackers that law enforcement target in carefully coordinated busts simply rebuild and restart their attacks with impunity.

“Because we can’t arrest the core operators that are in Russia or in areas that are uncooperative with law enforcement, we can’t stop them,” says Allan Liska, a ransomware-focused researcher for cybersecurity firm Recorded Future.

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Posted in Corporations/Corporate Life, Ethics / Moral Theology, Law & Legal Issues, Police/Fire, Science & Technology

(NYT front page) As Medicaid Shrinks, Clinics for the Poor Are Trying to Survive

Medicaid payments are “the lifeblood of our health centers and their ability to serve,” said Dr. Kyu Rhee, the president and chief executive of the National Association of Community Health Centers, which treat roughly one in 11 people in the United States and rely on Medicaid and federal grants to provide a financial cushion for the uncompensated care they give uninsured patients.

Since last spring, Medicaid enrollment has dropped by almost ten million, including around four million children, according to researchers at Georgetown University. States have removed people for a variety of reasons, including for changes in income and age. Some people have been dropped because they did not return paperwork. Others have lost coverage because of technical errors, including computer glitches.

The loss of reimbursements for millions of patients has contributed to an already difficult financial picture for facilities that treat the poor: Unless Congress reaches a funding agreement, nearly $6 billion for federally financed health clinics, which serve over 30 million people, most of them low-income, could lapse in early March.

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Posted in * Culture-Watch, America/U.S.A., Economy, Health & Medicine, Personal Finance, Poverty

(WSJ) Hospitals and Pharmacies Reeling After Change Healthcare Cyberattack

Pharmacies warned of long waits for customers and U.S. military clinics worldwide have been affected after a cyberattack against one of the country’s largest prescription processors rolled into a third day of downtime.

Health industry experts said that a cyberattack against Change Healthcare, part of insurer UnitedHealth Group’s Optum business, could have severe and lasting consequences should outages continue past the weekend.

“It’s a mess, and I believe it’s our Colonial Pipeline moment in healthcare,” said Carter Groome, chief executive of healthcare-focused consulting firm First Health Advisory, referring to a 2021 cyberattack that forced the major fuel artery for the U.S. East Coast to shut down for six days, causing long lines at gas stations.

Change Healthcare was merged with Optum, a healthcare provider, in 2022 by UnitedHealth. Change Healthcare provides prescription processing services through Optum, which supplies technology services for more than 67,000 pharmacies and care to 129 million individual customers.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Defense, National Security, Military, Economy, Health & Medicine, Science & Technology

(NYT) When Eyes in the Sky Start Looking Right at You

For decades, privacy experts have been wary of snooping from space. They feared satellites powerful enough to zoom in on individuals, capturing close-ups that might differentiate adults from children or suited sunbathers from those in a state of nature.

Now, quite suddenly, analysts say, a startup is building a new class of satellite whose cameras would, for the first time, do just that.

“We’re acutely aware of the privacy implications,” Topher Haddad, head of Albedo Space, the company making the new satellites, said in an interview. His company’s technology will image people but not be able to identify them, he said. Albedo, Mr. Haddad added, was nonetheless taking administrative steps to address a wide range of privacy concerns.

Anyone living in the modern world has grown familiar with diminishing privacy amid a surge security cameras, trackers built into smartphones, facial recognition systems, drones and other forms of digital monitoring. But what makes the overhead surveillance potentially scary, experts say, is its ability to invade areas once seen as intrinsically off limits.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Corporations/Corporate Life, Defense, National Security, Military, Law & Legal Issues, Science & Technology

(Economist) How dow we explain the resiliency of the global economy?

Why is the global economy so oblivious to the new world disorder? High interest rates have managed to bring down inflation from a peak of more than 10% across the rich world to about 6%. This not only raises households’ purchasing power; it also raises their spirits. Indeed, having hit an all-time low in 2022, rich-world consumer confidence has risen sharply. Higher borrowing costs have been muted by the fact that a lot of household and corporate debt is on fixed interest rates.

There is also a more intriguing possibility: after so many shocking global developments, the world no longer minds chaos as much as it once did. This is consistent with academic evidence, including a recent paper by two researchers at the Federal Reserve, which suggests that the hit to output from a spike in economic uncertainty fades after a few months.

Good economists remain vigilant. Higher interest rates may have a delayed impact on growth. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war or the Red Sea could provoke another round of shocks to energy supply, feeding into inflation. All bets are off if Xi Jinping decides to move on Taiwan. Yet on the flipside, falling inflation and a potential boost to productivity from generative artificial intelligence could prompt gdp to accelerate. Moreover, the global economy has already demonstrated its resilience. Polycrisis, what polycrisis?

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Posted in Economy, Globalization

(Washington Post) Microsoft, OpenAI say U.S. rivals use artificial intelligence in hacking

Russia, China and other U.S. adversaries are using the newest wave of artificial intelligence tools to improve their hacking abilities and find new targets for online espionage, according to a report Wednesday from Microsoft and its close business partner OpenAI.

While computer users of all stripes have been experimenting with large language models to help with programming tasks, translate phishing emails and assemble attack plans, the new report is the first to associate top-tier government hacking teams with specific uses of LLM. It’s also the first report on countermeasures and comes amid a continuing debate about the risks of the rapidly developing technology and efforts by many countries to put some limits on its use.

The document attributes various uses of AI to two Chinese government-affiliated hacking groups and to one group from each of Russia, Iran and North Korea, comprising the four countries of foremost concern to Western cyber defenders.

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Posted in America/U.S.A., China, Corporations/Corporate Life, Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, Foreign Relations, Globalization, Russia, Science & Technology

(Bloomberg) Number of Farms in America Is Shrinking as Producers Get Older

The number of farms in America is shrinking as growers get older and producing crops gets a lot more expensive.

The US had 1.9 million farms in 2022, a 6.9% drop from five years ago and the lowest since at least 1992, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture’s Census of Agriculture released on Tuesday. The total acreage used in farms dropped about 2.2%.

The survey, conducted every five years, shows an increasingly challenging outlook for food production in the US as the population grows. The high cost of land and equipment has raised the bar of entry into agriculture, making it more expensive for the next generation to produce crops.

Meanwhile, the average age of producers continued to climb, reaching 58.1 years in 2022.

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Dieting/Food/Nutrition, Economy, Labor/Labor Unions/Labor Market

(Bloomberg) Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End

In a cavernous production hall in Düsseldorf last fall, the somber tones of a horn player accompanied the final act of a century-old factory.

Amid the flickering of flares and torches, many of the 1,600 people losing their jobs stood stone-faced as the glowing metal of the plant’s last product — a steel pipe — was smoothed to a perfect cylinder on a rolling mill. The ceremony ended a 124-year run that began in the heyday of German industrialization and weathered two world wars, but couldn’t survive the aftermath of the energy crisis.

There have been numerous iterations of such finales over the past year, underscoring the painful reality facing Germany: its days as an industrial superpower may be coming to an end. Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017, and the decline is accelerating as competitiveness erodes.

“There’s not a lot of hope, if I’m honest,” said Stefan Klebert, chief executive officer of GEA Group AG — a supplier of manufacturing machinery that traces its roots to the late 1800s. “I am really uncertain that we can halt this trend. Many things would have to change very quickly.”

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Posted in * Economics, Politics, Economy, Energy, Natural Resources, Foreign Relations, Germany, History, Politics in General, Russia

(NYT) America’s Fiscal Gap continues to Increase to Troublesome Levels Going Forward

Spending on safety net programs such as Social Security and Medicare continues to grow even as their trust funds face the prospect of being depleted in the next 10 years.

“Also boosting deficits are two underlying trends: the aging of the population and growth in federal health care costs per beneficiary,” Mr. Swagel said. “Those trends put upward pressure on mandatory spending.”

The national debt is likely to be even larger than the budget office is predicting, as its forecast assumes that the 2017 tax cuts that Republicans enacted will fully expire even though lawmakers are already considering extending many of the measures, including lower individual income tax brackets.

For the second time in less than a year, the budget office said it now expected Mr. Biden’s efforts to wean the nation from fossil fuels to be more popular with the public — and more expensive for taxpayers — than initially estimated.

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Posted in Economy, Ethics / Moral Theology, House of Representatives, Medicare, Office of the President, Politics in General, Senate, Social Security, The National Deficit, The U.S. Government