The 2024 election was a resounding victory not only for Donald J. Trump but also for prediction markets like the crypto-based Polymarket, which allow users to trade contracts that pay out based on the outcome of future events.

By the morning of the election, Polymarket showed $1.8 billion in trading volume on who would win the presidency (Trump at 62%) and an additional half billion on who would win the popular vote (Harris at 73%). The biggest bet on a Trump victory was placed by an enigmatic “whale” known only as Théo.

Trump’s victory was even more decisive than the prediction markets foresaw. Even on Polymarket, few shared Théo’s conviction that Trump would win the popular vote. But the prediction markets were still a lot closer than most opinion polls and political pundits, nearly all of which clustered around a neck-and-neck result.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Election Day that “Prediction Markets Point to Likely Trump Victory,” giving the former president a chance of success between 57% and 62%. But most polls showed the election as headed for a tie. Renowned election forecaster Nate Silver wrote on election morning: “We ran 80,000 simulations tonight. Harris won in 40,012,” thereby giving the sitting vice president a 50.015% chance of winning the election.

Nope.

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“How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024.” Did you know that betting on elections is older than opinion polls? And why it’s more likely to predict the result? My latest for ⁦@WSJ⁩ with ⁦@mrinconcruz⁩. https://t.co/GqYQP2MmJo

— Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) November 15, 2024

After years of internal strife, it was a dispute about economic policy that finally toppled the German government. Now Europe is facing months of political paralysis just as its many simmering crises are coming to a boil.

With both France and Germany led by minority governments, the continent’s key powers are facing months of impotent introspection as challenges pile up, from a hostile second Trump administration to the economic headwinds from China and Russia’s steady advances in Ukraine. 

The political currents tossing governments across Europe are similar to those that propelled Donald Trump to win back the presidency, the Senate and very possibly the House. Voters on both sides of the Atlantic are in a restive mood, unhappy with the economy and unimpressed by politicians’ efforts to control a surge in illegal immigration.

But while America’s overall economy is strong, Europe’s recovery from its recent economic shocks has been lackluster, especially in the industrial heartlands of Germany.

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"Europe Rudderless"

Both France and Germany now have minority governments.https://t.co/s2WbcRtpOi

— Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) November 7, 2024

Donald Trump is projected to return to the White House next January, according to the Associated Press, and is poised to spur the most dramatic reimagining of the staffing of government in more than a century.

That’s because Trump has vowed to revive Schedule F, a controversial abortive effort at the end of his first term to strip the civil service protections of potentially tens of thousands of career federal workers in “policy-related” positions, effectively making them at-will employees. Trump and many of his former staffers have frequently bemoaned that “rogue bureaucrats” inhibited his policymaking power during his first stint in the White House.

Though President Biden quickly rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021—before any positions could be converted out of the federal government’s competitive service—that hasn’t stopped Trump and his allies from working on the initiative in absentia. Both the Heritage Foundation and America First Policy Institute, which have organized dueling unofficial transition projects have endorsed reviving Schedule F, going so far as to creating lists of upwards of 50,000 current career civil servants to strip of their removal protections and threaten with termination.

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What Trump’s win means for the federal workforce https://t.co/rCiwJi8BUN

— Nextgov/FCW (@NextgovFCW) November 6, 2024

On the day after Americans went to the polls in presidential elections, Archbishop Timothy Broglio has expressed the US Bishops’ prayers for President-elect Donald Trump and all members elected to represent the American people at the national, state, or local levels.

In an interview with Vatican News, the President of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) said the Catholic Church is “not aligned with any political party,” adding that the US Bishops’ look forward to working with elected representatives to promote the common good.

“As Christians and as Americans,” he said, “we have a duty to treat each other with charity, respect, and civility, even if we may disagree on how to carry out matters of public policy.”

Archbishop Broglio also noted that the US Bishops will seek to uphold the rights of all people, including the unborn…

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Prayer for the United States Government by Archbishop John Carroll

“We pray, O almighty and eternal God,
who through Jesus Christ has revealed thy glory to all nations,
to preserve the works of your mercy,
that your Church, being spread through the whole world,
may continue with… pic.twitter.com/4m8p9BNfeT

— ChurchPOP (@Church_POP) November 6, 2024

Mr. Trump appeared to improve his performance on election night among many types of counties, including ones that had supported him in past elections as well as ones that have historically leaned Democratic.

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This "shift from 2020" visualization from the NYT is something.

The movement was toward red, even in deep blue states. pic.twitter.com/4HJerGFQgq

— Prasanna (@BhogalePrasanna) November 6, 2024

Donald J. Trump rode a promise to smash the American status quo to win the presidency for a second time, surviving a criminal conviction, indictments, an assassin’s bullet, accusations of authoritarianism and an unprecedented switch of his opponent to complete a remarkable return to power.

Mr. Trump’s victory caps the astonishing political comeback of a man who was charged with plotting to overturn the last election but who tapped into frustrations and fears about the economy and illegal immigration to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.

His defiant plans to upend the country’s political system held appeal to tens of millions of voters who feared that the American dream was drifting further from reach and who turned to Mr. Trump as a battering ram against the ruling establishment and the expert class of elites.

In a deeply divided nation, voters embraced Mr. Trump’s pledge to seal the southern border by almost any means, to revive the economy with 19th-century-style tariffs that would restore American manufacturing and to lead a retreat from international entanglements and global conflict.

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Nyt has it now after calling wisconsin #election #electionresults #politics #usa pic.twitter.com/DFfGWwjOcx

— Kendall Harmon (@KendallHarmon6) November 6, 2024

Almighty God, to whom we must account for all our powers and privileges: Guide and direct, we humbly pray, the minds of all those who are called to elect fit persons to serve the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the United States of America. Grant that in the exercise of our choice we may promote your glory, and the welfare of this nation. This we ask for the sake of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.  Amen.

A beautiful day to see the sun rise in New York City as people head to the polls on election day Tuesday morning #newyorkcity #nyc #newyork #sunrise @empirestatebldg #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/nWy7MusBzE

— Gary Hershorn (@GaryHershorn) November 5, 2024

The biggest single crisis facing the United States on the eve of the election does not come from Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. It does not come from our enemies abroad. It does not come from our dissensions at home. It does not come from unfunded entitlement commitments. It does not come from climate change. Our greatest and most dangerous crisis is the decay of effective leadership at all levels of our national life, something that makes both our foreign and domestic problems, serious as they are, significantly more daunting than they should be.

Average confidence in institutions ranging from higher education to organized religion rests at historic lows, with fewer than 30% of respondents telling Gallup pollsters that they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in major American institutions. Only small business, the military, and the police inspire majorities of the public with a high degree of confidence; less than a fifth of Americans express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers, big business, television news, and Congress. 

Much of the country’s political and intellectual establishment responds defensively to numbers like this, blaming falling confidence on the corrosive effects of social media or the general backwardness and racism of the American public. The East German communist hacks Bertolt Brecht satirized also blamed their failings on the shortcomings of the masses: “The people have lost the confidence of the government and can only regain it through redoubled work.”

While social media is problematic, and not every citizen of the United States is a model of enlightened cosmopolitanism, America’s core problem today is not that the nation is unworthy of the elites who struggle to lead it. That superficial and dismissive response is itself a symptom of elite failure and an obstacle to the deep reform that the American leadership classes badly need.

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America’s Crisis of Leadership: How Teddy Roosevelt can help save us from our Marie Antoinette problem: https://t.co/whepP7cGgG

— Tablet Magazine (@tabletmag) November 4, 2024

In principle, Ukraine could liberate its lost territory if the United States and its European partners intervened with forces of their own. But this would require jettisoning the indirect strategy they chose in 2022. It would come at great human, military, and economic cost. And it would introduce far greater risk, as it would mean war between NATO and nuclear-armed Russia. For this reason, such a policy will not be adopted.

Instead of clinging to an infeasible definition of victory, Washington must grapple with the grim reality of the war and come to terms with a more plausible outcome. It should still define victory as Kyiv remaining sovereign and independent, free to join whatever alliances and associations it wants. But it should jettison the idea that, to win, Kyiv needs to liberate all its land. So as the United States and its allies continue to arm Ukraine, they must take the uncomfortable step of pushing Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin—and laying out a clear sense of how it should do so.

Such a pivot may be unpopular. It will take political courage to make, and it will require care to implement. But it is the only way to end the hostilities, preserve Ukraine as a truly independent country, enable it to rebuild, and avoid a dire outcome for both Ukraine and the world.

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The Perfect Has Become the Enemy of the Good in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs https://t.co/YQorbrdOWe

— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) November 4, 2024

–Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin).

–North Carolina counts fast (with new rules).

–Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night.

–Michigan could be faster than in the past.

–Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting Wednesday.

–Arizona could take days.

–Nevada could take days.

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When to Expect Results in Each State on Election Night, and Beyond https://t.co/6WKP9twKkd

— Veronica Grauert (@verograuert) November 4, 2024

Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual.

The Bill, introduced by the Labour MP Pat McFadden in September, seeks to remove the automatic membership of hereditaries in the House of Lords. The move to abolish the remaining 92 hereditary peers was promised in Labour’s election manifesto. The Bill had its Second Reading in the Commons last month. The subject was also debated by the Lords in July, shortly after the election (News, 26 July).

Last month, the Conservative MP Sir Gavin Williamson tabled an amendment to the Bill to include a clause that “No-one shall be a member of the House of Lords by virtue of being a bishop or Archbishop of the Church of England.”

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Bishops have said that they would welcome consultation on a “left-field” attempt by a Conservative MP, in an amendment to the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, to abolish the parliamentary seats for the Lords Spiritual https://t.co/8r0VXCxTHC

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 31, 2024

Infamously, polls in 2016 and 2020 systematically underestimated Mr Trump’s vote, especially in battleground states. After the 2016 election, the post mortem conducted by AAPOR, a professional organisation of pollsters, pointed to a late swing towards the Republican nominee and overrepresentation of graduates in poll samples. Most firms began to weight their samples to do a better job of reflecting the education profile of voters.

In 2020 the underestimation of Mr Trump was repeated for different reasons. This time AAPOR identified non-response bias—Republican voters were less likely to respond to pollsters. One theory is that they were less likely to be at home during the covid-19 pandemic (twiddling their thumbs and responding to surveys). Another is that Republican voters distrust pollsters, which discourages them from answering surveys.

Since 2020 pollsters have been at pains to reach a representative sample. They have experimented with recruitment that appeals to certain sections of society (postcards plastered with patriotic imagery, for example) and new modes, such as text messages. It is anyone’s guess whether this will be enough to account for the Democratic bias in response rates or whether supporters of Mr Trump are still reluctant to answer polls. If the errors seen in 2020 or 2016 are repeated even to a small degree that would be disastrous for Ms Harris—she could lose all seven swing states.

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The last Campaign Calculus to print before the election [😱] is on polling errors—all seven swing states are well within a normal polling error of flipping! https://t.co/vhMC84TtFE pic.twitter.com/e2JFce3u16

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) October 29, 2024

The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care.

“A review of funding would find a highly variable model for hospices: some are run by the NHS, with large annual charitable grants, and others are run by a charity that gets some funding from the NHS. A common hallmark is a holistic, bespoke, and patient-centred approach that values their relationships,” he said.

“We should not forget that all receiving hospice care are on the edge of eternity, and dying peacefully also requires spiritual palliative care.”

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The funding of hospices shows that “voluntary sector beginnings” are “still very much in evidence”, Lord Farmer said on Thursday as he introduced his debate on how the state funds palliative care https://t.co/82wnOqIy6K

— Church Times (@ChurchTimes) October 29, 2024

Data centers are the factories of AI, turning energy and data into intelligence. Industry leaders estimate that a few major U.S. technology companies alone are expected to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers, between 2023 and 2026. The countries that work with companies to host data centers running AI workloads gain economic, political, and technological advantages and leverage. But data centers also present national security sensitivities, given that they often house high-end, export-controlled semiconductors and governments, businesses, and everyday users send some of their most sensitive information through them. And while the United States is ahead of China in many aspects of AI, especially in software and chip design, America faces significant bottlenecks with data centers.

Data centers are critical for the digital economy and AI. But the data center buildout is hitting a wall. The United States is home to the plurality of the world’s data centers, numbering in the thousands. Yet America’s aging energy grid, which powers those data centers, is under enormous strain from a complex set of factors, including rising electricity demand, delayed infrastructure upgrades, extreme weather events, and the complex transition to renewable energy. Meanwhile, surging data center demands driven by rapidly increasing AI workloads are exacerbating the grid’s vulnerabilities.

It’s not just a question of how those energy needs can be met, but where. When it comes to data centers, the shortage of powered land in the United States—or more specifically, the shortage of powered land with the connectivity required to support large-scale data centers—combined with supply chain challenges and lengthy permitting timelines for new infrastructure—presents a challenge to realizing both the public and private sectors’ AI ambitions.

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There are a lot of known unknowns about AI, but “The Next AI Debate Is About Geopolitics.” In my latest @ForeignPolicy piece, I argue that data might be the “new oil,” but nations—not nature—will decide where to build data centers. Source: Foreign Policy https://t.co/CHLEzhY9I6

— Jared Cohen (@JaredCohen) October 28, 2024

For the first time in 15 years, the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, have lost their Lower House majority, following a clear rout in Sunday’s general election — a shift that opens up a potential path for the opposition to steer the lower chamber’s agenda if they can act cohesively.

The loss of its majority was likely to prompt Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to seek a third party to join the coalition in order to remain in power — a move that would necessitate negotiations, or even concessions.

Negotiating with a third party for its backing in parliament for every bill would exacerbate political instability and drastically reduce the LDP’s authority over the coalition, making Ishiba’s administration even shakier. The policymaking process would inevitably become more fragmented and laborious, requiring a great deal of political capital from the government.

Within the LDP, calls are now growing for accountability among the party leadership in the wake of the electoral drubbing.

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🇯🇵 Elections: the LDP (in power almost without interruption since the 1950s) loses several dozen seats and the majority, even with its Buddhist ally Komeito. In addition to recurring scandals, Moon and and undeclared funding, it lost its image of economic efficiency. pic.twitter.com/yvDBAOkZ24

— Valerie Niquet (@VNiquet) October 28, 2024

The Death Spiral is one of the main Pentagon Pathologies. The American people devote ever greater resources to their defense while receiving less and less in return. The Air Force had 10,387 aircraft in 1975 when the Military Reformers began their work in earnest. Today the Air Force has 5,288. The Navy had 559 active ships in 1975. Today the fleet has only 296. The Pentagon’s base budget is more than 60% higher today than it was in 1975, when adjusted for inflation. The American people simply spend more and receive much less in return for their defense dollars.

An argument can be made that modern military equipment is more expensive because of the capabilities they provide the troops. That is extremely debatable because many of the high-profile acquisition programs over the past 25 years have been underwhelming at best, and often complete failures. It is difficult to find anyone who will honestly say the Littoral Combat Ship was worth the effort.

Left unchecked, the acquisition Death Spiral’s inevitable destination is unilateral disarmament. Norman Augustine, a former DoD official and Lockheed Martin CEO predicted in 1983, with only a hint of satire, that by 2054, “the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

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At the current spending rate, in another generation we will have a lot of rich contractors and no aircraft or Naval fleets to speak of https://t.co/k4XV5gsk7Z

— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) October 24, 2024

Don’t turn our doctors into killers, says the Star. Like several of the opposing factions to the bill, it cites Canada as exemplifying the slippery slope, with one in twenty deaths there being by assisted dying.

This argument that the bill will open up unforeseen consequences for the disabled, and indeed for the unfortunate residents of bad care homes, is common, Archbishop Welby, facing down former Archbishop Carey, said that assisted dying was in effect a sword of Damocles over the disabled and aged. We should add that many Canadians choosing state sponsored suicide cite feeling a burden on family and caregivers as their motive. Canada surely vindicates Welby.

This argument really is cogent and necessary, but is it sufficient for a Christian view which sees humanity made in the image and likeness of God, leading to the doctrine of the sanctity of life? As Frost says this a doctrine that has permeated and grounded western civilization. Is it not simply wrong to kill people even those begging to die? Hospices and care giving was the Christian answer, but Christianity is fading fast with its practical altruistic legacy of looking after the sick and dying.

Lord Frost has pointed to our society’s reliance on Judaeo Christian ethics for all its institutions and to the perilous situation of breaking with this tradition of the sanctity of life for a callous utilitarianism. So far his is the deepest theological apologia for the classical Christian ethic of life  on offer, we trust Christian leaders will step up to the challenge soon.

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Ask MPs to oppose assisted suicide ✋

Some helpful tips here 👇 https://t.co/wr1LYSQylr

— Better Way (@betterwayUK) October 24, 2024

In Shakespeare’s time, people still lived out their days under the shadow of divine reward and punishment. Lady Macbeth hopes otherwise. “A little water clears us of this deed,” she says as she and her husband rinse their hands of blood. How wrong she was. 

Our leaders could use a dose of the humility of Edward, the Earl of March, who prays, “Ere my knee rise from the earth’s cold face / I throw my hands, mine eyes, my heart to Thee / Thou setter-up and plucker-down of kings.”

King Lear knew what it was to be set up and plucked down, and only in his reduced state did he taste the wonder of grace. Shakespeare often echoes what theologians call “the theology of reversal,” as expressed in the Beatitudes.

In the paradox of grace, he describes in As You Like It, “Sweet are the uses of adversity / Which, like the toad, ugly and venomous / Wears yet a precious jewel in his head.” Dogberry, the comical constable in Much Ado About Nothing, gets his words mixed up in a deeply ironic way when he says to a wrongdoer, “O, villain! Thou wilt be condemned into everlasting redemption.”

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William Shakespeare’s honest tragedies and bold assumption of God’s providence offer insight in our contentious election season.

From @philipyancey:https://t.co/O4FQPN9eCB

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) October 23, 2024

More than a quarter of Americans believe that civil war could break out after this year’s presidential election, according to polling for The Times.

Fears that an eruption of violence is very or somewhat likely are shared across the political divide by 27 per cent of American adults, including 30 per cent of women and 24 per cent of men, YouGov found in a survey of 1,266 registered voters on October 18-21.

Twelve per cent of respondents said they knew someone who might take up arms if they thought Donald Trump was cheated out of victory in under two weeks’ time. Five per cent said they knew someone who might do the same if they thought Kamala Harris was cheated.

The YouGov poll found 84 per cent of US voters said America was more divided than ten years ago, with only 5 per cent thinking it less divided.

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Just over a quarter of Americans fear civil war will break out after this year's elections, a new poll for @thetimes by @YouGovAmerica shows https://t.co/v5qGmVwJth

— David Charter (@DavidCharter) October 23, 2024

Canada’s fertility rate hit its lowest rate in recorded history for a second consecutive year in 2023. The spinoff impacts of this are already being felt – with Canada’s aging workforce joining a swelling retirement-age population and increasing economic pressure to meet this groups’ needs and entitlements.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds insight into the reasons behind lagging birth rates. ARI asked 1,300 Canadian adults younger than 50 if they plan to have children, and if not, why? Among this group, one-in-five are definitely (21%) going to have at least one child, while one-in-three (32%) say they may still do so. Within these two groups of potential parents, fully half say that they have delayed having kids longer than they ideally would have wanted. This rises to three-quarters (74%) among 35- to 44-year-olds. The top reasons driving delays are both societal and personal. For many, the search for the right partner has just not borne fruit (40%). For others, however, uncertainty surrounding their finances and the job market (41%) the cost of childcare (33%) and the housing affordability crisis (31%) are all drivers of the decision to wait.

Even among those who are definitely not going to have children (37% of the 1,300 adults surveyed) these worries about childcare and cost are a factor. One-quarter among this group say they decided not to have kids because the spectre of childcare costs was too daunting (25%), while one-in-five (18%) said it was too hard to foresee having proper housing to start a family.

With immigration playing a larger role year over year in sustaining the population – and criticism of immigration policy evidently growing – the historically low birth rate trend divides Canadians. They’re equally likely to feel that the birth rate is (43%) and isn’t (42%) a crisis.

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"Half of Canadians who want children have waited longer than they’d like, due largely to cost." –@angusreidorg #cdnpoli #generationalfairness https://t.co/XtH9zRh2nA pic.twitter.com/9BbZg6CFEM

— Generation Squeeze (@GenSqueeze) October 17, 2024

Fears of violence have left some US election boards struggling to hire poll workers with less than three weeks to go before Americans vote in November’s presidential election.

Election administrators in battleground states Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin are still recruiting temporary staff to set up polling equipment, sign in voters and report results, according to Power the Polls, a non-partisan poll worker recruitment group. Officials in Maryland, Ohio and Florida are also still hiring staff for election day.

“The challenge [comes from concerns about] the safety and security of poll workers,” said Isaac Cramer, executive director of the election board in Charleston County, South Carolina. “I know that was a top concern of people who have left.”

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Ongelofelijk: US polling places struggle to find workers after surge in threats. Four in 10 election administrators have added further security measures such as bulletproof glass and panic buttons. https://t.co/M4FbpXFjZI

— Hella Hueck  (@hellahueck) October 21, 2024

1 …most of us, in this brash and hasty culture, are more likely to need forbearance and grace for those we believe to be less spiritual, moral, intelligent, or knowledgeable than ourselves.

2-Forbearance isn’t tolerance. Grace is not condescension.

3-Nor are forbearance and grace indecision and cowardice.

4-Remember 1 John 4:20: “Whoever claims to love God yet hates a brother or sister is a liar.”

5-Lasting political disagreement among Christians is not by itself evidence of sin, unbelief, or any other dysfunction. Reasonable, faithful Christians may in good faith reach different conclusions. They may all have solid biblical support for their views; they may all seek the common good; they may all seek to love their neighbors; they may always disagree.

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.@bonniekristian offers 25 precepts on disagreement, faithfulness, forbearance, and voting for this (and every) election season:https://t.co/MlJfCSwgUQ

— Christianity Today (@CTmagazine) September 30, 2024

Imagine if having children came with more than $150,000 in cheap loans, a subsidized minivan and a lifetime exemption from income taxes.

Would people have more kids? The answer, it seems, is no.

These are among the benefits—along with cheap child care, extra vacation and free fertility treatments—that have been doled out to parents in different parts of Europe, a region at the forefront of the worldwide baby shortage. Europe’s overall population shrank during the pandemic and is on track to contract by about 40 million by 2050, according to United Nations statistics.

Birthrates have been falling across the developed world since the 1960s. But the decline hit Europe harder and faster than demographers expected—a foreshadowing of the sudden drop in the U.S. fertility rate in recent years. 

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Worldwide Efforts to Reverse the Baby Shortage Are Falling Flat: "Demographers suggest the reluctance to have kids is a fundamental cultural shift rather than a purely financial one" https://t.co/GDF4fuEAA8

— Jim Russell (@ProducerCities) October 14, 2024

Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global gross domestic product, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

In its latest Fiscal Monitor — an overview of global public finance developments — the IMF said it expects debt to approach 100% of GDP by 2030, and it warns that governments will need to make tough decisions to stabilize borrowing.

Debt is tipped to increase in the US, Brazil, France, Italy, South Africa and UK, according to the IMF report, which urges governments to rein in debt.

“Waiting is risky: country experiences show that high debt can trigger adverse market reactions and constrains room for budgetary maneuver in the face of negative shocks,” it said.

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Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the IMF https://t.co/3beTtprVZ9

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 15, 2024

Why should countries care about shrinking populations at a time of climate change, increasing risk of nuclear catastrophe and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs? At a global level, there is no shortage of people. But drastically low birthrates can lead to problems in individual countries.

Tomáš Sobotka, one of the authors of the U.N. report and a deputy director at the Vienna Institute of Demography, does a back-of-the-envelope calculation to illustrate the point: In South Korea, which has the lowest birthrate in the world at 0.72 children per woman, just over a million babies were born in 1970. Last year, 230,000 were. It’s obviously too simple to say that each person born in 2023 will, in their prime working years, have to support four retired people. But in the absence of large-scale immigration, the matter will be “extremely difficult to organize and deal with for Korean society,” said Mr. Sobotka.

Similar concerns arise from Italy to the United States: working-age populations outnumbered by the elderly; towns emptying out; important jobs unfilled; business innovation faltering. Immigration could be a straightforward antidote, but in many of the countries with declining birthrates, accepting large numbers of immigrants has become politically toxic.

Across Europe, East Asia and North America, many governments are, like Japan, introducing measures like paid parental leave, child care subsidies and direct cash transfers. According to the U.N., the number of countries deliberately targeting birthrates rose from 19 in 1986 to 55 by 2015.

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Great piece by @motokorich on what governments can do to increase the birthrate, and how Japan's experiment doing this panned out. https://t.co/ZdaeJY3ZuO

— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) October 14, 2024

The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.

Voters view Donald Trump as better able than Kamala Harris to handle the economy, 54% versus 45%. Trump also has an edge on perceptions of his handling of immigration (+9 percentage points) and foreign affairs (+5), while Harris is seen as better on climate change (+26), abortion (+16) and healthcare (+10). The candidates are evenly matched on voters’ impressions of who would better address gun policy.

Just under half of voters overall agree with Trump (49%) or Harris (47%) on the issues that matter most to them.

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President Joe Biden and his administration are sticking to their position of not invoking the Taft-Hartley Act to force International Longshoremen’s Association dock workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports where a strike is hitting day two on Wednesday, a political decision that reflects the power of unions one month out from an election but risks losing some progress on what is the No. 1 issue for many voters: the economy.

Rhetoric from Cabinet secretaries, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, has become sharper in recent days, pointing the finger at the ports ownership and ocean carriers. But right now, there is no sign of any progress bringing the ILA and port owners back to the table for a new round of negotiations, according to CNBC sources. And there remains a big risk on the other side of the political decision-making: wage increases that are a win for workers but ultimately ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices, both domestically and around the world.

Much of the focus about the economic impact of the ports strike to date has been focused on the direct hit to the economy from the massive trade shutdown, and the ways in which supply chain congestion and delays can result in higher prices being passed along to consumers, which will become a bigger factor the longer a strike persists. But maritime and business experts are also warning about the risk of persistent wage inflation making its way into supply chain prices that the Federal Reserve has recently been successful in taming.

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The East and Gulf Coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration https://t.co/x17dHuIkW9

— CNBC (@CNBC) October 2, 2024

Reconciliation is not an event; it is a process taking generations. In 1945, Europe was a hopeless and bankrupt slaughterhouse of hatred and cruelty. Today, there are huge struggles, but the only place we ever truly express rivalry and hunger for victory is on the football field. And France is remarkably successful.

Reconciliation requires human participation. It happens through the brilliance of leadership, de Gasperi, Adenauer, Monnet, Schumann, de Gaulle, Churchill, General Marshall. Defying the bloodshed of the past, it beats swords into ploughshares. Reconciliation means history that is true. It means healing past hurts and admitting wrongs.

Reconciliation is not only agreement, although agreement is necessary; reconciliation is the transformation of destructive conflict into creative rivalry underpinned by mutual acceptance and love. It is a cycle of peace, justice, and mercy, building up a structure shining in the love of God. A moment of peace opens the way to truth telling. Truth telling sows the seeds of relationships. They allow a gram more of peace. In this thin soil of peace, justice can be sown. Amidst justice a fragile confidence appears. From confidence the next and better circle can begin.

But the foundation of it all is prayer, for in prayer we commit ourselves to partnership with God.

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In a world of conflict, we must imagine peace – and that begins by partnering with God in prayer.

It was a great privilege to address the #SantEgidio International Meeting for Peace in Paris today.

You can read my address here: https://t.co/wker09gmcy #PeaceIsPossible pic.twitter.com/9MBNzjGmb7

— Archbishop of Canterbury (@JustinWelby) September 22, 2024

You may

sense that governments are not as competent as they once were. Upon entering the White House in 2021, President Joe Biden promised to revitalise American infrastructure. In fact, spending on things like roads and rail has fallen. A flagship plan to expand access to fast broadband for rural Americans has so far helped precisely no one. Britain’s National Health Service soaks up ever more money, and provides ever worse care. Germany mothballed its last three nuclear plants last year, despite uncertain energy supplies. The country’s trains, once a source of national pride, are now always late.

You may also have noticed that governments are bigger than they once were. Whereas in 1960 state spending across the rich world was equal to 30% of GDP, now it is above 40%. In some countries growth in the state’s economic power has been still more dramatic. Since the mid-1990s Britain’s government spending has risen by six percentage points of gdp, while South Korea’s has risen by ten points. All of which raises a paradox: if governments are so big, why are they so ineffective?

The answer is that they have turned into what can be called “Lumbering Leviathans”. In recent decades governments have overseen an enormous expansion in spending on entitlements. Because there has not been a commensurate increase in taxes, redistribution is crowding out spending on other functions of government, which, in turn, is damaging the quality of public services and bureaucracies. The phenomenon may help explain why people across the rich world have such little faith in politicians. It may also help explain why economic growth across the rich world is weak by historical standards.

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Governments are bigger than ever. They are also more useless https://t.co/kt5sIZ1OqF

— Igor Wortel (@itwortel) September 23, 2024

Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy is growing faster than expected. But surging demand for power is sucking up much of that additional capacity and forcing utilities to burn fossil fuels, including coal, for longer than expected.

With greenhouse-gas emissions continuing at record levels, scientists expect floods and heat waves to get worse. This year is on track to be the hottest on record.

“The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich. On this trajectory, “it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience,” she said.

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Climate optimism is fading as high costs and new priorities like AI push the energy transition down the priority list for businesses and investors. Climate week story taking stock of the setbacks w/ @edmballard:https://t.co/7tZDL7w0Sd

— Amrith Ramkumar (@AmrithRamkumar) September 23, 2024