A month ago the Government warned us that by the end of August 100,000 people would be getting swine flu every day. Yesterday it produced figures showing that the disease has apparently peaked, with only 30,000 new cases last week. How did they get it so wrong?
The trouble with warning people about the dangers of swine flu is that you’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t. Striking the right balance is impossibly difficult. There are always plenty of commentators ready to scent a scare, but following their insouciant advice is not an option. “Calm down, everybody, it’s only a couple of days feeling a bit peaky” was never the first sentence likely to spring to Sir Liam Donaldson’s lips.
That said, it’s worth asking if the message has been right, and if it has been based on sound evidence. It’s also worth asking why the Scottish Government has done so much better in providing timely and complete data than the Health Protection Agency in England.
Well, on this side of the Pond there are some other considerations to think about. There is chatter on the net about the Obama Admin using a Swine Flu scare this fall as a pretext to declare Martial Law and implement some Pentagon plans prepared after 9/11 for enforcing strict geographical segregation. The reason for doing this would be to innoculate the Obama Admin from the consequences of their crumbling public opinion numbers and give them the springboard for positive control. Not a pretty picture.
I hope it’s useless chatter, but maybe keep your eyes open and “check your six”.
I don’t know of any plans or reasons for martial law, but…
In my neck of the woods the latest version of Swine Flu kept to the schools (teachers and children) into June and by luck or wisdom didn’t hit the nursing homes or other centers of senior citizens living together. I suspect that when it hits that population this fall or winter it will stop up our hospital EDs. At that point the ripple effect in healthcare and workplace should be interesting to observe.
And [i]I’ve[/i] heard the virus is being spread from black helicopters…
Really, people. This is a significant, but not catastrophic, health risk. People will die, so it is not trivial. Without the possible (but not extremely likely) mutation of the virus, the death toll will not be enormously greater than from other strains of seasonal flu in an active year. Because of that possibility, we need to take this quite seriously and we need contingency plans. Even paranoids have real enemies.
The problem is, by the time anyone can be sure it is a big problem, it’s too late. The actions required to prevent it from becoming a big problem, before it is, are onerous.
I think we have to remember that the most likely “victims” are young pregnant women. It is of course a problem for ANYONE with a condition that affects the immune system. The very young and the very old are, as usual, to be considered. But it seems that pregnancy is another condition that influences the immune system and makes the woman susceptible to the virus.
A colleague of mine just recovered from a documented, real case of H1N1. She contracted it from her husband, a physician here in Pennsylvania. Being young and healthy, they both were home-bound for 6 days and miserable. The biggest challenge they had was getting supplies (groceries, prescriptions) since they both were sick at once. She ended up going, albeit quickly, to the store while still sick and feels now it was a mistake.
The message we have taken from this is that we, as an office, must make a plan to help each other so the sick can stay home until they are better. This is also an area that parishes should address before it starts to hit this fall.