Good to see this, finally. But surely these were releasable before the House of Bishops meeting….We are interested in you looking up your parish and your diocese and seeing how the numbers there fit with your own observations on the ground.
Good to see this, finally. But surely these were releasable before the House of Bishops meeting….We are interested in you looking up your parish and your diocese and seeing how the numbers there fit with your own observations on the ground.
For the DioVa, there were a lot of missing names – Truro Church, Falls Church, Church of the Apostles, etc.
Did find one diocese that reported growth … South Carolina … anyone see any others?
These bar graphs of are limited usefulness, and permit only approximations…when will hard numbers be released?
Kevin and all: some years the hard data has been released in Oct/Nov. The 2005 data wasn’t released until early Jan 2007. So, it’s hard to say.
Let’s see. The population is growing, and has been. The number of college-educated sorts is growing, and has been. The Episcopal Church has made itself fully “inclusive,” knowing that this will bring in huge numbers of new members, who don’t want to be part of a church that is rigid and unaffirming. So of course the figures show expansion, right? No? Well, surely the Episcopal Church is holding steady at least? No? What’s wrong? And why are all the churches that actually stand for something, and still believe in sin, and the cross, and substitutionary atonement, and heaven and hell, and the Bible as the Word of God, and so forth–why are they growing and we’re not? I don’t understand. Wasn’t the “new thing” going to bring people into the Episcopal Church?
Eastern Michigan
http://12.0.101.88/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_930200740941PM.pdf
From near 10,000 to what looks like 7800 since 2002
Diocese of Texas (Bishop Wimberly, no significant parish defections): ASA down a smidge since 2002 but essentially flat; up slightly since 1996. Baptized membership down slightly more since 2002, but also up slightly over 1996. Plate/pledge has trended up since 1996, probably because the oil bidness has been good.
St. John the Divine Houston, very big, very evangelical, very orthodox theologically: Down slightly from last year in both ASA (~1,200) and baptized members (~4,700), but plate/pledge is up fairly significantly. [The big dip we had in 2004, and subsequent partial recovery in 2005, was almost certainly due to gutting the church for repair / renovation and worshiping in the gym during that time.]
Comment: For 10 years, SJD has been essentially flat in ASA and baptized membership, even pre-dating GC2003. This, despite smart, dynamic, and solidly-orthodox evangelical clergy as well as a first-rate physical plant. Part of the problem might be that we’re landlocked and cramped for space. My gut feeling, however, is that while our theology has attracted some people, it has also driven away more than a few. (I’ve said all this to the clergy in the past, and also in vestry meetings when I was on it.)
Matt Kennedy [#6], it’s sad to read your assertion that your parish is having nothing to do with your diocese or with TEC. In our very-orthodox evangelical parish, quite a few of my liberal friends disagree, sometimes strenuously, with the clergy on matters of theology. But they (we) still participate fully in the parish, including but not limited to stewardship, because you don’t abandon your “family” for light and transient reasons, and The Current Disputes are just that (I know, you disagree). I hope you realize how fortunate you are that your bishop hasn’t inhibited or even deposed you.
#9 – “I hope you realize how fortunate you are that your bishop hasn’t inhibited or even deposed you.”
Tec doesn’t have a pope – it has SCORES of popes!
[url=http://northernplainsanglicans.blogspot.com/2007/09/episcopal-church-2006-statistics-are.html]South Dakota analysis here[url]
My delegation and I are not going to diocesan convention this coming weekend. Nothing positive to contribute. Murmurings about the bishop “wanting to do something” where yours truly is concerned.
The two revisionist lead parishes here both show significant declines in ASA. One has some recovery in pledge/plate but not back up to the level pre-VGR. The other is just tanking every which way.
The diocesan ASA is holding 2005-6, but this is propped up by ASA gains here at Good Shepherd, Sioux Falls and a moderate parish in the state capitol (Pierre – prounounced “pier” by locals).
With an ASA of only 2100 (down from 2600 in year 2000), little movements can really skew the stat trends in this diocese.
I developed on a posting from Sue Martinez who belongs to one the church’s that bolted from Bruno. See [url=http://new.kendallharmon.net/wp-content/uploads/index.php/t19/article/6504/#120222 ]here[/url]. Like in Father Matt’s case, the statistics are carried over but but with some slight variation. In some sense, this is worse than simply carrying over numbers but rather there someone out there that is deliberating cooking stats.
A look at the ACN dioceses is instructive (even allowing for the fact that the graphs are hard to read). The only diocese that can feel a degree of satisfaction in fulfilling the Great Commission is that of our esteemed host.
Giving is up everywhere except in Dallas (marked drop since 2005).
Baptized membership is down everywhere except in Forth Worth and Springfield (increase on 2005) and South Carolina (consistently up since 1997). Quincy fell from 2,800 in 2002 to 2000 in 2006.
Worshipping attendance is steady in Central Florida, Fort Worth, Pittsburgh and South Carolina, down in Albany (since 2002), Quincy (since 2004), Rio Grande (since 2002), San Joaquin (since 2003), and Springfield (since 2002). Dallas reported a marked decline since 2005 (presumably the effect of the departure of Christ Church, Plano).
In some areas, of course, the general population trend is down, but we still need to be thinking in terms of what makes South Carolina (and perhaps some of the missionary parishes already out there) work if we’re going to be successful in the post-realignment phase.
Those bastions of revisionism Newark and Pennsylvania have posted a consistent decline in ASA since 2002. Many dioceses have a combined attendance less than many individual churches.
My guess is for my former parish they have stopped updating the numbers. They are the same for the past three years.
Percentage Change Baptized Members, 1996-2006 (Approximate Change in Number in Parentheses)
ACN Dioceses
Quincy -33% (-1,000)
Albany -20% (-5,000)
Springfield -17% (-1,000)
Pittsburgh -14% (-3,000)
Central Florida -5% (-2,000)
Dallas No change (grew during 1990s then fell back)
San Joaquin No change (grew during 1990s then fell back)
Fort Worth +5% (+1,000)
Rio Grande +7% (+1,000)
South Carolina +18% (+6,000)
Non-ACN Dioceses
Pennsylvania -17% (-10,000)
Newark -17% (-6,000)
New Hampshire -17% (-3,000)
Florida -12% (-4,000)
Virginia -4% (-3,000)
Nevada +7% (+400)
Oddly enough there appears to have been a decline between 2005 and 2006 in Nevada, for whatever reason.
One further point to note about the above figures. The distinction between loss and gain seems largely to be one of Rustbelt decline and Sunbelt growth. Two ACN dioceses stand out from this trend, however. Albany’s numerical loss is high and its percentage loss is higher than for Pennsylvania or Newark. Central Florida bucks the Sunbelt trend and posts a loss (perhaps what is happening next door is having a ricochet effect).
Rob Roy, thanks for adding the links to All Saints’, St. James’, St. David’s and St. Luke’s on the L.A. Times story here: http://new.kendallharmon.net/wp-content/uploads/index.php/t19/article/6504/#comments The All Saints’ chart can be found at http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_930200754819PM.pdf The first three parishes left ECUSA in August, 2004; St. Luke’s left last year.
I confirmed with my rector this morning that the latest numbers we sent the diocese were for 2003 or possibly 2002. (2002 looks like the likely year since there is no change after that.) That means that by copying and pasting the 2003 statistics into the columns for ’04, ’05, and ’06, Bishop Bruno is counting an extra 1000 ASA between our four ex-parishes, whose statistics are also unchanged.) Since the ASA of his entire diocese is just over 20,000, at least 5% of that is total fiction. As I said on the SF site, the real membership of All Saints’ [i]Episcopal [/i] Church is TWO. All Saints’ [i] Anglican [/i] Church, Province of Uganda, is doing quite well, thank you.
#9. TEC can’t inhibit and depose everyone, can they? I mean, I suppose they can try? I suppose TEC and many diocene bishops will try. Not a good long-term growth strategy…
I am familiar with the situation one parrish in DioVa and I can tell you that the “pledge” figures are inconsistent with the situation. I also believe the baptized membership figures to be almost useless. There are so many that have left, transferred and never bothered to formally pull their membership. How many “baptized members” are with more than one church?
Many actions were taken in 2006 which will not take effect until 2007. Also, legal actions will delay the effects of others, e.g., in California. Nevertheless, membership impacts will be more noticeable
in 2007. Statmann
For my former diocese (WTexas) the numbers seem awfully flat for an area which is growing explosively. Plate/pledges are up but the curve looks an awful lot like the one for inflation which means income is essentially flat. For my old parish (St Marks, San Marcos), the situation is the same except that the plate/pledges is flat too, not matching inflation, which is an effective decline.
That assumes they aren’t cooking the numbers like out in California. California is a leader in many things ^_^.
Not growth, but not disasterous decline either. When I left 4 years ago, St Marks had just bought a property on which they planned a humongus new physical plant; as I drive by, no ground has been broken so far… now I know why.
In faith, Dave
Viva Texas
Jeremy (#13):
I’m curious what you think the reason for the decline in ACN dioceses is. I read your post to mean that perhaps being a Network Diocese leads to decline.
#22 I wasn’t actually drawing conclusions so much as providing the data (with all the qualifications as to accuracy other readers have noted) and letting the rest of you mull them over.
Since you ask, my point – as a Pittsburgh congregant of three years standing – is that the proof of “fruitfulness†in mission (the theme of our diocesan convention in 2006) has yet to be completely demonstrated in most of the ‘confessing’ dioceses (though individual parishes are being fruitful). Now there ARE demographic reasons why this might be so (and the numerical losses in some of the reappraising dioceses noted above are far greater), but only South Carolina seems to be bucking national trends unreservedly.
I don’t want of us to be feeling too smug about what’s happening in Pennsylvania or even Virginia, when orthodox diocese are still struggling to improve. As far as I’m aware, only Dallas has lost significant membership through withdrawal (Christ Church, Plano). Why then the figures for Albany, Pittsburgh and, especially, Central Florida? I know that here in Pittsburgh the present Canon Missioner is very disappointed that our efforts to plant churches have not been as extensive as they were in the 1980s.
Jeremy #16 states that the diocese of Nevada grew from 96 to 06. Unfortunately, he is looking at membership which is a nearly worthless statistic. If one looks at the [url=http://12.0.101.88/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_101200794502AM.pdf ]graph[/url] for Average Sunday attendance. It is quite apparent that the 2006 is around 2200 and the 1996 was 2364, a 7.5% drop. If one looks at the 2001 to 2006 drop, it shows a [b]16.4% drop[/b].
Kirk Hadaway’s analysis shows that orthodox churches have been hit hardest over all by the national church’s [i]innovations[/i]. This worst for orthodox churches in liberal dioceses. They slightly buck the trend in conservative dioceses.
It is helpful to review a letter by Ephraim Radner on how the national church’s actions are making local mission difficult. Found here:
http://titusonenine.classicalanglican.net/?p=14415
#24 Fair enough, the numbers are so low in Nevada to begin with, that most observations are probably worthless. I included Nevada for obvious reasons and had to use the same formula for that diocese as I had for the rest.
In any case, when ‘growth’ of 400 represents a seven percent increase in a state like Nevada (which recently gained a third congressional seat), one would hardly view that as cause for celebration. My original point still stands.
#25 thanks for that link to the Radner comments. Compare and contrast them to Bp. Epting’s recent blogging about dealing with “red faced”, “uneducated” lay people and his need to maintain social standing in New York.
Clearly, those in national leadership don’t care about what goes on in congregations – in fact, they seem to detest congregational ministry and like big abstractions (like diocesan staff and programs, MDGs, etc) better.
#18, Yes, the numbers (ASA, Membership & Plate/Pledge) for St. James et al, ought to be removed from the +DioLos Angeles report. To report obsolete prior numbers as current numbers, is at best, living in cloud cucoo land, and at worst, mendacious.
I note that St. Peters, San Pedro, (my old parish) was once much healthier than it is now. The parish had a large proportion of military families (usually more conservative folks) from the nearby USAF base housing, who attended, brought children and their own talents to help the parish.
This was however, BEFORE, St Peters was put under their new rector, a man who turned out to be an activist and was both lawyer and an homosexual. While he was there, he moved the parish into an activist homosexualist mode and so, most conservative and/or orthodox parishioners left.
The parish decline is precipitous on the charts.
1998: Members @ 540 +/-, ASA @ 180 +/- & P&P;@ $320K +/-
2006: Members @ 340 +/-, ASA @ 150 +/- & P&P;@ $250K +/-
This represents a precipitous decline of:
-27% in Members, -16% in ASA & -21% in P&P;.
One does not have to be brilliant in order to see there is a problem with this parish. One does have to have local knowledge in order to know WHY this problem exists.