If there is substance to the tweet signalling “strong opposition” to Sentamu, it suggests the Archbishop of York is not amongst the “also rans.” It probably means a section of the commission or perhaps just one member made anti-Sentamu views known in a forceful manner. Sentamu’s stance on sexuality could be one possible reason; lack of popularity among some commission members may be another.
There are suggestions that the six Canterbury representatives voting in solidarity could block a particular candidate or even stall the entire process. Chartres is rumoured to have told friends he is out of the reckoning. While he recently signalled willingness to ordain women as priests and take part in consecrating women as bishops, his earlier stance could still be held against him, particularly by Canterbury representatives. They include Clare Edwards, canon pastor at Canterbury Cathedral, who is influential in the campaign for women in the episcopate.
Further, in a close vote the role of Barry Morgan (the Archbishop of Wales, representing the primates of the Communion) would be crucial, either in supporting or blocking a candidate.
Fascinating to watch all this as an interested Lutheran. Members representing those places where the church is essentially dead are picking a leader for those churches with vitality and growth. Maybe the last gasp of European leadership of the church?