In this sense, just as Reagan Republicanism dominated the 1980s even though the Democrats controlled the House, our own era now clearly belongs to the Obama Democrats even though John Boehner is still speaker of the House.
That era will not last forever; it may not even last more than another four years. The current Democratic majority has its share of internal contradictions, and as it expands demographically it will become vulnerable to attack on many fronts. Parties are more adaptable than they seem in their moments of defeat, and there will come a day when a Republican presidential candidate will succeed where Mitt Romney just failed.
But getting there requires that conservatives face reality: The age of Reagan is officially over, and the Obama majority is the only majority we have.
“Parties are more adaptable than they seem in their moments of defeat”
This really is true. I think you could have gotten pretty good money if you’d been willing to bet after the 2008 election that Mitt Romney and the Republicans would come so close in 2012. Between the economic disaster, the repudiation of all things Bush, the rise of the Tea Party, the hope and change memes, and the demographic predictions, lots of people were wondering if the Republicans would be credible again anytime soon, let alone Romney Republicans only four years later. Unfortunately for the Republicans, many of those things are still working against them, and unless they can reinvent themselves they’re going to have to pin their hopes increasingly on things getting much, much worse in general in the US by 2016.
i enjoy reading douthat and agree with most of what he says. i agree that the dems won’t be able to hold it forever simply because they will become increasingly extreme leftist just as republicans did to the right. but who knows, depending on the demographics. i do believe this; if pubs start becoming more socially center, a lot of their supporters will stay home on election day.