Did you notice the op-ed in the NY Times this morning pointing out that only a “sliver of a slice” of American voters actually participate in the caucus? Someone was working very hard to lower expectations and minimize any bad news…
I gather the latest Reuters/Zogby poll has Clinton losing ground in third place, and John Zogby is being quoted about her “fade.”
Not so coincidentally, as we were about to have breakfast this morning, our phone rang and the caller asked rather urgently to speak to John Zogby. Nancy explained he had the wrong number, and we noted that our area code in New York is one adjacent digit different from that of Des Moines. I will be happy to give Zogby’s number in Des Moines offline if anyone wants it.
The spin yesterday was that a third place finish for Sen. Clinton is acceptable, and given the closeness (in the polls), that’s probably true. Which is to say that the Democratic nomination is probably not at stake. I think the Republican’s, OTOH, are doing something rather more significant.
Obama, having been raised by a white mother and her white parents and attending white institutions, tends to appeal to white liberal party activists and journalists who are smitten when an articulate, handsome mulatto runs for public office. (“See, he’s black! And [i]smart[/i]!”). He won’t fare nearly as well in the states with urban Democratic machines.
Huckabee (rhymes with *uckabee) has a folksy appeal which, again, does not surprise me in Iowa polls. Mitt is too slick, and Mormon, which means in the Bible Belt he may as well be Buddhist. Actually, he’d have a better shot as a Buddhist.
Giuliani will ultimately get the nomination based on his promise to arrest everyone in the US under the age of 35 and to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program with his own bare hands.
I still have no clear idea whom I’ll be voting for next week in the FL Repub. Primary (and yes, I do mean next week, because I’ll be voting by Absentee ballot before I leave to return to Africa on Jan 13th).
But I’m hoping tonight that McCain does better than expected. The current crises in Pakistan and Kenya have given me serious pause and made me take a hard look again at McCain and he’s now among my top choices. The cavalier attitude of some towards Huckabee’s lack of serious foreign policy experience reminds me too closely of many’s (including my own) attitude re: voting for GWB in 2000. I don’t think we can afford to overlook foreign policy INexperience any longer. Not many of the candidates in EITHER party have much direct foreign policy experience, but McCain is certainly stronger than most of the field in that area, and that’s greatly increased my interest in him of late.
But, I wish I had a lot longer than 8 days to make up my mind before I have to vote… It’s still so early in the process.
Karen,
My desire would have been for the debates to have actually asked some questions that were relevant to the real world we live in now. The Democrats have not once addressed Islamic terrorism and refused to attend a debate hosted by FOX News; the Republicans skirt the issues of immigration and health care, and no one is asking either side about foreign policy matters.
That’s the real disappointment: we don’t know how either side feels about the most pressing issues facing us TODAY.
Wow. Surprised CNN is calling Iowa for Huckabee so early. Looks like a heavy Evangelical turnout. Gloria Borger’s comments about the concern of electability are interesting, and the potential divisive effect of Huckabee breaking up the “Reagan coalition.” Certainly I’ve heard quite a few others saying the same.
Fascinating stuff tonight with a wide open race on both sides. But 4-6 months ago, Huckabee wasn’t even on the radar screen. Very interesting developments.
CNN is calling the Dem side for Obama. The spread is basically in thirds, with Obama at 35%, Clinton and Edwards at 31% each. Does that really mean anything?
I’m not a political junkie, but it’s really inspiring to see those Iowa folks actually meeting and hashing all of this out. It strikes me as a fundamentally [i]civilized[/i] process.
LOL. Sitting here watching CNN and Giuliani commenting about his strategy. I’ll certainly attest to his focus on FL. The TV stations here have been filled with Rudy ads, but I’ve not seen an ad for any other candidate, except those I’ve seen on the news in discussions of Iowa or New Hampshire.
Did you notice the op-ed in the NY Times this morning pointing out that only a “sliver of a slice” of American voters actually participate in the caucus? Someone was working very hard to lower expectations and minimize any bad news…
Will be at Dem. caucus this evening and will report asap…..
I gather the latest Reuters/Zogby poll has Clinton losing ground in third place, and John Zogby is being quoted about her “fade.”
Not so coincidentally, as we were about to have breakfast this morning, our phone rang and the caller asked rather urgently to speak to John Zogby. Nancy explained he had the wrong number, and we noted that our area code in New York is one adjacent digit different from that of Des Moines. I will be happy to give Zogby’s number in Des Moines offline if anyone wants it.
The spin yesterday was that a third place finish for Sen. Clinton is acceptable, and given the closeness (in the polls), that’s probably true. Which is to say that the Democratic nomination is probably not at stake. I think the Republican’s, OTOH, are doing something rather more significant.
Obama, having been raised by a white mother and her white parents and attending white institutions, tends to appeal to white liberal party activists and journalists who are smitten when an articulate, handsome mulatto runs for public office. (“See, he’s black! And [i]smart[/i]!”). He won’t fare nearly as well in the states with urban Democratic machines.
Huckabee (rhymes with *uckabee) has a folksy appeal which, again, does not surprise me in Iowa polls. Mitt is too slick, and Mormon, which means in the Bible Belt he may as well be Buddhist. Actually, he’d have a better shot as a Buddhist.
Giuliani will ultimately get the nomination based on his promise to arrest everyone in the US under the age of 35 and to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program with his own bare hands.
reactionary, that was too funny! i personally am thinking edwards will pull out ahead and surprise everyone.
I still have no clear idea whom I’ll be voting for next week in the FL Repub. Primary (and yes, I do mean next week, because I’ll be voting by Absentee ballot before I leave to return to Africa on Jan 13th).
But I’m hoping tonight that McCain does better than expected. The current crises in Pakistan and Kenya have given me serious pause and made me take a hard look again at McCain and he’s now among my top choices. The cavalier attitude of some towards Huckabee’s lack of serious foreign policy experience reminds me too closely of many’s (including my own) attitude re: voting for GWB in 2000. I don’t think we can afford to overlook foreign policy INexperience any longer. Not many of the candidates in EITHER party have much direct foreign policy experience, but McCain is certainly stronger than most of the field in that area, and that’s greatly increased my interest in him of late.
But, I wish I had a lot longer than 8 days to make up my mind before I have to vote… It’s still so early in the process.
This has been the longest pre-election process EVER in the history of the U.S., and you think it’s too soon to make a decision? LOL.
Karen,
My desire would have been for the debates to have actually asked some questions that were relevant to the real world we live in now. The Democrats have not once addressed Islamic terrorism and refused to attend a debate hosted by FOX News; the Republicans skirt the issues of immigration and health care, and no one is asking either side about foreign policy matters.
That’s the real disappointment: we don’t know how either side feels about the most pressing issues facing us TODAY.
Dee in Iowa, I will look forward to that report!
Wow. Surprised CNN is calling Iowa for Huckabee so early. Looks like a heavy Evangelical turnout. Gloria Borger’s comments about the concern of electability are interesting, and the potential divisive effect of Huckabee breaking up the “Reagan coalition.” Certainly I’ve heard quite a few others saying the same.
Fascinating stuff tonight with a wide open race on both sides. But 4-6 months ago, Huckabee wasn’t even on the radar screen. Very interesting developments.
–elfgirl
CNN is calling the Dem side for Obama. The spread is basically in thirds, with Obama at 35%, Clinton and Edwards at 31% each. Does that really mean anything?
I’m not a political junkie, but it’s really inspiring to see those Iowa folks actually meeting and hashing all of this out. It strikes me as a fundamentally [i]civilized[/i] process.
LOL. Sitting here watching CNN and Giuliani commenting about his strategy. I’ll certainly attest to his focus on FL. The TV stations here have been filled with Rudy ads, but I’ve not seen an ad for any other candidate, except those I’ve seen on the news in discussions of Iowa or New Hampshire.
And, once again, the futures markets nail the correct outcome.